Wednesday, December 4, 2024: Analysis of Key Events and Reports
Wednesday, December 4, 2024, will be a busy day for financial markets. Key economic data is scheduled for release, including the Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMI) from major economies, the ADP employment report in the U.S., and oil inventory data. Additionally, speeches from central bank leaders, including Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde, and the Bank of England Governor, may set the tone for global markets. In this article, we will analyze each event of the day in detail, their impact on the global economy and the Russian market, and provide recommendations for traders.International Events:
01:00 MSK: Australia - Services and Composite PMI for NovemberThe services and composite PMI will reflect the state of the Australian economy. A reading above 50 indicates economic activity, which could support the Australian dollar and improve investor expectations related to commodities.
03:30 MSK: Japan - Services and Composite PMI for November
Japanese PMIs will serve as a key indicator of the country's economic recovery. An increase in indices may strengthen the yen, creating trading opportunities in currency pairs with JPY.
04:15 MSK: USA - ADP Employment Report
This report serves as a preliminary indicator for Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls data. Strong employment figures will bolster the dollar and create expectations for tighter monetary policy from the Fed.
04:45 MSK: China - Caixin Services and Composite PMI for November
The indicators will reflect the state of the services sector and the economy as a whole. Strong data will support demand for commodities, including oil and metals, positively impacting Russian exports.
08:00 MSK: India - Services and Composite PMI for November
India's PMI will show how actively one of the key sectors of the economy is developing. High readings will strengthen the rupee and support investor interest in the Indian market.
09:00 MSK: Russia - Services and Composite PMI for November
Russian PMIs will indicate the state of the services sector, which plays an important role in the economy. Positive data will support the ruble and strengthen investor confidence.
11:55 MSK: Germany - Services and Composite PMI for November
As the largest economy in the Eurozone, Germany sets the tone for the region. Strong figures will bolster the euro and support sentiment in European stocks.
12:00 MSK: Eurozone - Services and Composite PMI for November
Aggregate data for the Eurozone will help assess regional economic dynamics. Growth in PMIs may enhance expectations for interest rate hikes by the ECB.
12:00 MSK: Speech by Bank of England Governor
Markets will closely monitor comments from the Bank of England Governor, especially given current economic uncertainties. Remarks on monetary policy may cause volatility in the British pound.
12:30 MSK: UK - Services and Composite PMI for November
The services sector is central to the UK economy. High readings will support the pound and strengthen investor confidence.
13:00 MSK: Eurozone - Producer Price Index (PPI) for October
The PPI indicates inflationary pressures in the manufacturing sector. An increase in this index may heighten expectations for further rate hikes by the ECB, potentially strengthening the euro.
16:00 MSK: Brazil - Services and Composite PMI for November
The indicators will provide insight into Brazil's economic condition. Strong data will increase interest in emerging market assets, including Russia.
16:30 MSK: Speech by ECB President Lagarde
Markets will look for comments on monetary policy and economic prospects in the region. Hawkish rhetoric may strengthen the euro.
17:30 MSK: Canada - Services and Composite PMI for November
The indices will help assess Canadian economic dynamics. Positive data will bolster the Canadian dollar and support Canadian-related assets.
17:45 MSK: USA - S&P Services and Composite PMI for November
These data will show the current state of America's largest economic sector. Strong figures will support both the dollar and U.S. stocks.
18:00 MSK: USA - ISM Manufacturing PMI for November
This indicator is crucial for assessing conditions in the manufacturing sector. A rise in ISM above expectations could increase interest in U.S. assets.
18:00 MSK: USA - Factory Orders for October
This figure signals prospects for industrial growth. An increase in orders would positively impact GDP expectations.
18:30 MSK: USA - EIA Oil Inventories
Inventory data will influence global oil prices. A decrease in inventories typically supports price increases, benefiting Russian oil companies.
21:45 MSK: USA - Speech by Fed Chair Powell
Markets will await comments on monetary policy prospects. Signals about further rate hikes could strengthen the dollar.
22:00 MSK: USA - Publication of Fed's Beige Book
This report reflects current economic conditions across various U.S. regions. Positive assessments could enhance expectations for tightening monetary policy, leading to a stronger dollar and potential weakening of the ruble.
Key Reports on Wednesday:
Europlan ($LEAS): EGM on dividends for 9 months of 2024 at 50 rubles per shareWhat to expect: The EGM is set to decide on dividend payments that constitute a significant portion of company profits over 9 months. Dividends at 50 rubles per share appear attractive to investors, especially amid high dividend yields in the Russian market.
How it might affect shares: The stock may see short-term gains leading up to register closure as investors rush to receive dividends. After ex-dividend date, a price correction may occur equal to dividend amounts.
Chewy Inc ($CHWY): Report before U.S. market open; expected revenue growth – 4.4%
What to expect: The pet products company continues to grow due to increased online sales. The expected revenue growth of 4.4% reflects steady demand for its products, especially premium pet food and subscription services.
How it might affect shares: A positive report could support shares, particularly if margins also improve. Investors will monitor subscription trends and costs to assess future growth sustainability.
Footlocker Inc ($FL): Report before U.S. market open; expected revenue growth – 1.1%
What to expect: Weak revenue growth at 1.1% indicates challenges in retail due to declining demand for athletic shoes and apparel. Investors will also pay attention to comparable sales figures critical to assessing company success.
How it might affect shares: If revenue and profit exceed expectations, it could improve short-term stock prospects; however, a weak report may trigger sell-offs as markets expect greater flexibility in adapting to reduced consumer demand.
Dollar Tree Inc ($DLTR): Report before U.S. market open; expected revenue growth – 1.8%
What to expect: The fixed-price store chain faces inflationary pressures that may impact margins; however, a projected revenue growth of 1.8% indicates stable demand within budget retailing segments.
How it might affect shares: Investors will watch how well management navigates rising costs; successful cost management could support shares if forecasts improve next quarter.
Five Below Inc ($FIVE): Report after U.S. market close; expected revenue growth – 8.5%
What to expect: Five Below continues to demonstrate strong results through its strategy of expanding product offerings and opening new stores; an expected revenue growth of 8.5% shows robust demand for affordable goods among youth demographics.
How it might affect shares: A strong report could drive stock increases if forecasts improve next quarter; investors will monitor traffic metrics and sales per store closely.
Chargepoint Holdings Inc ($CHPT): Report after U.S. market close; expected revenue decline – 18.7%
What to expect: An anticipated revenue decline of 18.7% relates to challenges within electric vehicle charging infrastructure segments; deteriorating dynamics may stem from project delays and reduced demand in several regions.
How it might affect shares: A negative report could intensify pressure on shares unless management presents a recovery strategy; investors await comments on cost reductions and potential improvements next quarter.
Phillips-Van Heusen Corp ($PVH): Report after U.S. market close; expected revenue decline – 6%
What to expect: A projected revenue decline of 6% reflects weak demand within fashion apparel segments; competition pressure combined with decreased purchasing power may hinder performance.
How it might affect shares: A weak report would exert pressure on shares unless management proposes compelling measures to restore sales; investors are likely to focus on inventory management strategies and recovery plans.
Events and reports scheduled for Wednesday, December 4, 2024, could significantly impact both Russian economy and financial markets:
1. ADP Employment Report (04:15 MSK):
This report provides preliminary employment data from private sectors in the U.S., often used as a predictor for official employment figures influencing Federal Reserve (Fed) decisions on interest rates.
An increase in employment could strengthen USD while potentially weakening RUB due to capital outflows from emerging markets like Russia driven by heightened Fed rate hike expectations.
2. PMI Indices (04:45 MSK):
Positive PMI readings from China (services) indicate rising economic activity which can bolster demand for Russian export commodities like oil.
Conversely, weak PMI figures may signal declining demand impacting Russian exports negatively.
3. Russian PMI Indices (09:00 MSK):
These indices reflect conditions within Russia's services sector—growth above 50 indicates expansion supporting investment climate while declines below suggest contraction potentially weakening RUB attractiveness.
4. Eurozone PPI (13:00 MSK):
Rising PPI signals inflationary pressures likely prompting ECB rate hikes which can strengthen EUR against RUB affecting import prices.
5. EIA Oil Inventory Data (18:30 MSK):
Changes here directly influence global oil prices—declines typically boost prices beneficially impacting Russian oil revenues while increases can have adverse effects.
6. Central Bank Leaders' Speeches:
Comments from key central bank leaders regarding monetary policy can sway currency valuations—Powell’s remarks may influence USD/RUB dynamics while Lagarde’s statements impact EUR/RUB relationships.
7. Publication of Fed's Beige Book (22:00 MSK):
This report offers insights into current U.S economic conditions—positive assessments can bolster USD while potentially weakening RUB due to capital shifts.
8. Europlan Shareholder Meeting:
Dividend decision at $LEAS can enhance share attractiveness leading up towards register closure boosting stock prices while attracting foreign investors into Russian equities market.
Recommendations for Traders & Investors:
Wednesday, December 4th promises pivotal moments shaping market sentiment driven by extensive economic data releases alongside corporate events—key indicators being global PMIs reflecting business activity trends across China, Eurozone, Russia among others.EIA oil inventory figures are poised to influence crude prices whilst speeches from central bank heads like Powell & Lagarde set directional cues across currency & equity markets.
Particular attention should focus on Chinese & Eurozone PMIs as they directly affect commodity demand & export dynamics impacting Russian equities.
On domestic front—local PMIs & corporate news such as Europlan’s dividend announcements are vital influencing stock interests.
Traders are advised closely monitor these critical datasets anticipating volatility whilst making informed trading decisions accordingly based upon market reactions post-releases.
Long-term investors should assess implications stemming from these reports towards global economic outlook adjusting portfolios accordingly—especially mindful regarding oil price movements critical towards Russian economy/RUB valuations.
Prepare yourself mentally & strategically ahead of potential market fluctuations particularly following EIA disclosures alongside central bank leaders’ addresses.
As founder of Open Oil Market—I perceive Wednesday’s events offer essential guidance points aiding traders/investors alike—the release of PMIs from China/EU/Russia serves as pivotal indicators gauging overall economic activity trends crucially impacting commodity markets’ forecasted trajectories.
EIA oil inventory updates alongside central bank speeches dictate price movements across energy resources/foreign exchange rates critically relevant towards Russian exporters’ performance metrics.
These developments extend beyond mere statistics—they represent tools enabling comprehension surrounding prevailing global trends shaping market anticipations—analyze data diligently observe key indicators leverage insights towards strategically sound decision-making processes moving forward!
As of December 4, 2024, the financial markets exhibit the following key indicators:
Indices and Futures:
Commodities:
Cryptocurrency:
These figures reflect current trends in financial markets, with notable movements in commodity prices and cryptocurrencies. Investors are advised to monitor global economic events and geopolitical developments that may influence future market dynamics.
🇯🇵 Japan - Economy (November 2024)
In November 2024:
🇨🇳 China - Economy (November 2024)
These figures highlight steady expansion in China's economy, with the composite index improving, driven by stronger performance across various sectors.
According to preliminary data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), retail sales of passenger vehicles in China reached 2.4 million units in November 2024, marking a 15.4% year-on-year increase and a 6.1% rise from the previous month.
In the new energy vehicle (NEV) segment, retail sales are estimated at 1.28 million units, achieving a market penetration rate of 53.3%.
This growth is supported by government incentives, such as vehicle scrappage and trade-in programs, as well as marketing campaigns including "Double 11" promotions and events at the Guangzhou Auto Show.
However, competition in the market is intensifying. In November, sales of China-made Tesla electric vehicles declined by 4.3% year-on-year to 78,856 units, despite a 15% increase from the previous month.
Meanwhile, Chinese automaker BYD increased passenger vehicle sales by 67.2%, reaching a record 504,003 units.
These figures highlight the sustained growth of China's automotive market, particularly in the NEV segment, reflecting the country's ambition to lead in clean transportation.
These figures reflect ongoing challenges in Germany's economy, including weak demand and competitive pressures. Despite these indicators, the German stock market has reached new highs, driven by strong performances in technology, financial, and industrial sectors.
In November 2024, the eurozone's economic activity contracted notably, with the Services PMI declining to 49.5 from 51.6 in October, marking a ten-month low. The Composite PMI also fell to 48.3 from 48.6, indicating the sharpest downturn in ten months. Values below 50 signify contraction, reflecting challenges such as weak demand and increased competitive pressures. Economists express concerns over the region's growth prospects, noting that the manufacturing sector's recession is now impacting services.
These developments underscore the need for measures to stimulate economic activity and address the eurozone's current challenges.
These revisions reflect the OECD's assessment of the U.S. economy's resilience amid evolving global conditions.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has released projections for key interest rates of major central banks:
Federal Reserve (U.S.): The federal funds rate is expected to decrease to 4–4.25% by the end of 2025, following reductions beginning in the second half of 2024 as core inflation shows sustained declines.
European Central Bank (ECB): The main refinancing operations rate is projected to be lowered to 2.5% by the end of 2025, as inflationary pressures ease and economic conditions stabilize.
Bank of Japan (BoJ): The policy rate is anticipated to rise to 0.75% by the end of 2025, reflecting gradual adjustments in monetary policy in response to economic developments.
These forecasts indicate the OECD's expectations for monetary policy adjustments in response to evolving global economic conditions.
In October 2024, the Eurozone's Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.4% month-over-month, following a 0.6% decline in September. Year-over-year, the PPI decreased by 3.2%, slightly less than the 3.4% drop observed previously.
The monthly uptick in PPI suggests a resurgence of pricing pressures at the production level, which could eventually influence consumer prices. However, the continued annual decline indicates persistent deflationary trends within the Eurozone's manufacturing sector.
These figures are crucial for the European Central Bank's monetary policy decisions, especially in its efforts to achieve targeted inflation levels. Investors and analysts should monitor upcoming economic indicators to evaluate the durability of these trends.
In November 2024, U.S. private-sector employment increased by 146,000 jobs, slightly below economists' expectations of 150,000 and down from October's revised addition of 184,000 positions.
This deceleration in job growth may influence the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy decisions, as it suggests a cooling labor market. Investors are closely monitoring these developments, with attention on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's forthcoming comments and the official employment report due later this week.
Despite the slowdown in employment growth, major stock indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have reached record highs, driven by gains in technology stocks.
Additionally, U.S. Treasury yields have risen, reflecting market anticipation of future economic conditions.
Economists anticipate that the upcoming Labor Department report will show an increase of 200,000 jobs in November, following a modest rise of 12,000 in October.
Overall, the current data indicates a moderation in private-sector employment growth, which could impact future monetary policy and economic outlooks in the United States.
In November 2024, the U.S. services sector experienced accelerated growth, with the S&P Global Services PMI rising to 56.1 from October's 55.0. The Composite PMI, encompassing both manufacturing and services, increased to 54.9 from 54.1, marking the highest level in 31 months.
This expansion indicates robust demand and heightened business confidence in the U.S. economy. However, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) services index showed a decline to 52.1 in November from 56.0 in October, suggesting a potential slowdown in service sector growth.
These mixed signals present a complex landscape for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. Investors are closely monitoring upcoming economic indicators and Federal Reserve communications to gauge future policy directions.
In financial markets, major indices have shown varied responses. The S&P 500 has experienced slight gains, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has seen modest declines.
Overall, the U.S. services sector continues to exhibit growth, but varying data points underscore the importance of monitoring future economic developments.
In November 2024, the U.S. services sector experienced a slowdown, with the ISM Services PMI decreasing to 52.1 from October's 56.0, indicating a deceleration in growth. Despite the decline, a PMI above 50 still signifies expansion.
In October 2024, U.S. factory orders increased by 0.2% month-over-month, aligning with economists' expectations. This rise follows a revised 0.2% decline in September, suggesting a modest rebound in manufacturing activity.
These indicators reflect a mixed economic landscape, with the services sector showing signs of cooling while manufacturing exhibits slight improvement. Investors and policymakers are closely monitoring these developments to assess their potential impact on future economic performance and monetary policy decisions.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) report for the week ending November 29, 2024, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 5.1 million barrels, exceeding analysts' expectations of a 1.6 million barrel decline.
This significant drawdown suggests a tightening in the oil market, potentially leading to upward pressure on crude oil prices. Factors contributing to this decline may include increased refinery activity and higher export levels.
Market participants should monitor these developments closely, as continued inventory reductions could influence future pricing and supply dynamics.