Monday, December 2, 2024: Analysis of Key Events and Reports
International Events
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01:00 MSK: Australia - Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
The indicator is expected to remain stable, reflecting the resilience of the Australian economy. -
03:30 MSK: Japan - Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
A slight improvement is anticipated, suggesting gradual recovery in Japanese industry. -
04:45 MSK: China - Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
An increase is expected, indicating strengthened activity in China's small and medium-sized businesses. -
08:00 MSK: India - Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
Positive dynamics are forecast, reflecting growth in Indian industry. -
10:00 MSK: Turkey - Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
Stability in the indicator is expected, demonstrating resilience in the Turkish economy. -
11:30 MSK: Switzerland - Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
A slight decrease is predicted, though the indicator remains in the growth zone. -
11:55 MSK: Germany - Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
An improvement is expected, which could positively impact the Eurozone economy. -
12:00 MSK: Eurozone - Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
Growth is forecast, reflecting the recovery of industrial activity in the region. -
12:30 MSK: UK - Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
Stability in the indicator is expected, suggesting maintenance of current growth rates. -
13:00 MSK: Eurozone - Unemployment rate (Oct)
A decrease in unemployment is predicted, indicating an improving labor market situation. -
16:00 MSK: Brazil - Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
An increase is expected, reflecting positive trends in the Brazilian economy. -
17:30 MSK: Canada - Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
A slight improvement is forecast, indicating recovery in the industrial sector. -
17:45 MSK: USA - S&P Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
Growth is expected, which could strengthen the dollar's position. -
18:00 MSK: USA - ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
An increase is predicted, indicating strengthened industrial activity.
Russian Events
- 09:00 MSK: Russia - Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
Growth is expected, signaling recovery in the industrial sector amid stabilizing economic conditions.
Corporate Events
- RusAgro (AGRO): Last day of trading depositary receipts on the Moscow Exchange in the "T+1 glass".
- Polyus (PLZL): Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders (EGM) to approve dividends for 9 months of 2024 at 1301.75 rubles per share.
- Avangard (AVAN): Closing of the register for dividend payment of 68.16 rubles per share.
- Inarktica (AQUA): Closing of the register for dividend payment of 20 rubles per share.
- KuibyshevAzot (KAZTP) (preferred shares): Last day with a dividend of 7 rubles.
- Zscaler Inc (ZS): Report after US market close. Expected revenue growth - 21.9%, potentially impacting the global technology sector.
China and Eurozone PMI Indices
China and Eurozone PMI indices are key indicators reflecting the state of their manufacturing sectors. As China is the largest consumer of commodities, improvement in its PMI may indicate increased demand for raw materials, positively affecting Russian exporters. Similarly, PMI growth in the Eurozone signals heightened economic activity, potentially boosting Russian exports to the region.
Corporate Events of Russian Companies
Dividend payments and corporate meetings of Russian companies can significantly influence their short-term dynamics. For instance, the EGM of Polyus to approve dividends for 9 months of 2024 at 1301.75 rubles per share may increase investor interest, leading to a rise in share value. Likewise, the closing of the register for dividend payments by Avangard and Inarktica may generate additional interest in their shares.
Zscaler Inc Reporting
Zscaler Inc, a global leader in cloud cybersecurity solutions, publishes financial reports that can shape sentiment in the technology sector. Strong results from Zscaler could bolster investor confidence in cybersecurity and technology companies, including Russian IT firms, reflecting on their market value.
Recommendations for Traders
- Monitor China and Eurozone PMI: Watch these indices closely as they can affect commodity prices, influencing Russian exporters.
- Focus on Corporate Events: Track dividend announcements and shareholder meetings of Russian companies to anticipate short-term stock movements.
- Evaluate International Reports: Zscaler Inc’s results may provide insight into the technology sector's outlook, impacting both global and Russian IT markets.
Commentary by Sergey Tereshkin
As the founder of Open Oil Market, I see that today's events provide essential insights for investors and traders. The PMI data from China and the Eurozone set the tone for commodity demand, crucial for exporters. Corporate events like dividend payments by Russian companies highlight the importance of timely assessments of market prospects. These indicators are not just data points—they are keys to understanding the broader economic trends shaping the global and Russian markets. Stay informed, analyze thoroughly, and make well-founded decisions.
PMI Indices:
- 🇦🇺 Australia - Manufacturing PMI (November) - 01:00 MSK
- 🇯🇵 Japan - Manufacturing PMI (November) - 03:30 MSK
- 🇨🇳 China - Caixin Manufacturing PMI (November) - 04:45 MSK
- 🇮🇳 India - Manufacturing PMI (November) - 08:00 MSK
- 🇷🇺 Russia - Manufacturing PMI (November) - 09:00 MSK
- 🇹🇷 Turkey - Manufacturing PMI (November) - 10:00 MSK
- 🇨🇭 Switzerland - Manufacturing PMI (November) - 11:30 MSK
- 🇩🇪 Germany - Manufacturing PMI (November) - 11:55 MSK
- 🇪🇺 Eurozone - Manufacturing PMI (November) - 12:00 MSK
- 🇬🇧 United Kingdom - Manufacturing PMI (November) - 12:30 MSK
- 🇧🇷 Brazil - Manufacturing PMI (November) - 16:00 MSK
- 🇨🇦 Canada - Manufacturing PMI (November) - 17:30 MSK
- 🇺🇸 United States:
- S&P Manufacturing PMI (November) - 17:45 MSK
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (November) - 18:00 MSK
Speeches and Eurozone Data:- 🇪🇺 ECB President Christine Lagarde - Speech - 13:00 MSK
- 🇪🇺 Eurozone - Unemployment Rate (October) - 13:00 MSK
Russia Highlights:- #AGRO - Last trading day in "T+1" segment on the Moscow Exchange.
- #KAZT - Last day to trade with dividends.
- #PLZL - General Meeting of Shareholders on dividends.
- Moscow Exchange - Launch of "mini" and "micro" futures on Brent and Henry Hub.
Other Markets:- 🇺🇸 US Federal Reserve, Waller - Speech.
- ✴️ BTC - CBOE to begin trading Bitcoin options.
Focus of the Day:- US Dollar Index (DXY): Rose to 106.26 (+0.53, +0.50%), indicating strength in the US dollar against major currencies.
- Shanghai Composite Index: Increased to 3,360.38 (+33.93, +1.02%), reflecting positive sentiment in Chinese equities.
- Hang Seng Futures: Dropped to 19,528.0 (-126.5, -0.64%), signalling a downturn in Hong Kong's market outlook.
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Climbed to 38,477.5 (+185.0, +0.48%), showing optimism in Japan's stock market.
- Euro Stoxx 50 Futures: Declined to 4,788 (-29, -0.60%), pointing to weaker expectations for European stocks.
- S&P 500 Futures: Fell to 6,040.25 (-11.25, -0.19%), suggesting cautious sentiment in the US market.
Commodities- Brent Oil: Increased slightly to $72.22 (+$0.38, +0.53%), showing modest gains in crude oil prices.
- Natural Gas: Dropped sharply to $3.194 (-$0.169, -5.03%), reflecting significant bearish movement.
- Gold: Fell to $2,651.09 (-$29.91, -1.12%), indicating reduced demand for safe-haven assets.
- Silver: Decreased to $30.645 (-$0.463, -1.49%), following a similar trend to gold.
- Copper: Slipped to $4.1128 (-$0.0317, -0.76%), suggesting lower industrial demand.
- Iron Ore 62%: Rose slightly to $102.44 (+$0.27, +0.26%), reflecting stability in the raw materials market.
- Nickel: Edged up to $13,515.0 (+$50.0, +0.37%), showing modest gains.
- Aluminium: Increased slightly to $2,603.50 (+$2.50, +0.10%), maintaining steady momentum.
Cryptocurrency- Bitcoin (BTC/USD): Rose marginally to $96,484.0 (+$34.0, +0.04%), maintaining stability around current levels.
HighlightsThese market dynamics reflect a mix of optimism in Asian markets, caution in Western equities, and volatile movements in commodities.
Australia's Manufacturing PMI for November improved to 49.4, up from 47.3 in October. While this marks an improvement, the index remains below the threshold of 50, indicating ongoing contraction in manufacturing activity, albeit at a slower pace.
Key Factors Influencing November's PMI:- New Orders: Continued to decline, dampening overall business activity.
- Production Output: Remains on a two-year downward trend, reflecting persistent challenges in the sector.
- Export Orders: Marginally increased, providing some support to the industry.
- Raw Material Costs: Input cost pressures eased, with cost inflation hitting its lowest level since June 2023. Declines in the prices of materials like grain and aluminium contributed to this trend.
- Output Prices: The rate of price increases slowed, reflecting softer cost pass-through to consumers.
- Backlogs of Work: Reduced at a faster pace, pointing to less strain on manufacturing capacity.
- Employment: The rate of job cuts slowed, signalling stabilisation in the labour market.
Outlook:Analysts suggest that PMI could surpass 50 in the coming months, indicating potential recovery in Australia's manufacturing sector.
Source: S&P Global, Trading Economics ()
In November, Japan's Manufacturing PMI stood at 49.0, down slightly from 49.2 in October. A reading below 50 indicates continued contraction in the manufacturing sector, extending a multi-month decline.
Highlights:- Demand: Domestic demand remains weak, though there are some signs of recovery in exports.
- Production Output: Declining, reflecting sluggish economic growth and supply chain challenges.
- New Orders: Persist in contraction, limiting the recovery of industrial production.
- Raw Material Costs: Inflationary pressures are easing, potentially supporting production costs.
- Employment: Stable, reflecting long-term confidence among businesses.
Outlook:Analysts suggest that the sector could recover with improved global demand and reduced raw material costs. However, manufacturing activity remains under pressure for now.
Source: S&P Global
In November, Caixin Manufacturing PMI increased to 51.1, up from 50.3 in October. This reading above the 50 threshold signals an expansion in China's manufacturing activity.
Highlights:- New Orders: Increased in both domestic and international markets, reflecting stronger demand.
- Exports: Recorded growth, providing additional support to industrial output.
- Production Output: Accelerated, indicating improved operational activity among manufacturers.
- Raw Material Costs: Remained stable, reducing pressure on production expenses.
- Employment: Continued to grow, demonstrating confidence in future prospects.
Outlook:The steady rise in PMI reflects an improving industrial landscape in China, driven by recovering global demand and government support measures. This is a positive sign for the global economy.
Source: Caixin, S&P Global
In December 2024, the total oil production by OPEC+ countries is set at 35.45 million barrels per day, unchanged from November. This volume includes:
- Established quotas for member states.
- Voluntary production cuts, adopted by several countries to stabilise the market.
- Compensation for undercuts in previous periods.
Key Highlights:- Quota Stability: Production levels remain unchanged despite global oil price volatility, reflecting the alliance's commitment to market balance.
- Voluntary Reductions: Major producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia continue implementing additional cuts to support prices.
- Global Market Factors: The market is influenced by macroeconomic uncertainty, slower demand growth in Asia, and potential recovery of Iranian exports.
Outlook:Experts anticipate OPEC+ may revise its strategy in the coming months, depending on demand and supply dynamics, particularly if the global economy strengthens or oil prices shift significantly.
Northern Star Resources Acquires De Grey Mining for $3.26 Billion in Stock Deal
[Date of Publication] — Australian gold mining giant Northern Star Resources has announced its acquisition of competitor De Grey Mining in a $3.26 billion (AUD 5 billion) all-stock transaction. Under the agreement, De Grey shareholders will receive 0.119 new Northern Star shares for each De Grey share they hold, valuing De Grey’s shares at $2.08 each, a 37.1% premium to the last closing price.
Key Details of the Acquisition
Comments from LeadershipHemi Gold Project:
De Grey’s flagship asset, the Hemi Gold Project in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, is at the heart of the acquisition. The project is expected to produce 530,000 ounces of gold annually during its first decade, with potential to increase output to 700,000 ounces as development continues.
Strategic Importance:
The addition of Hemi is aligned with Northern Star’s strategy to grow its annual gold production to 2.5 million ounces by 2028-2029, solidifying its position among the world’s leading gold producers.
Market Reaction:
Following the announcement, shares of De Grey Mining surged 30%, while Northern Star shares dropped by 5%, reflecting investor concerns about the dilutive impact of the stock deal and integration challenges.
Northern Star CEO Stuart Tonkin stated:
"The acquisition of De Grey Mining and its world-class Hemi Project is a transformative step for Northern Star. It aligns with our strategy of delivering sustainable, long-term growth for shareholders while enhancing our competitive edge in the global gold mining sector."
He also expressed confidence in securing necessary environmental and regulatory approvals, citing improved cost efficiency in Western Australia’s mining sector as a key enabler for the project.
What This Means for Investors and Traders
ConclusionPortfolio Diversification:
Hemi is one of the largest undeveloped gold projects in Australia, providing Northern Star with significant resource diversification and growth potential.
Revenue Growth Potential:
The increased production capacity could translate into substantial revenue growth. However, investors should carefully monitor the integration process and gold price fluctuations.
Regulatory and Approval Risks:
The deal’s completion depends on shareholder and regulatory approvals, which could impact the timeline and terms of the transaction.
Stock Performance:
While Northern Star’s stock dipped following the announcement, reflecting initial market concerns, the long-term growth outlook for the combined entity remains positive.
The acquisition of De Grey Mining marks a significant milestone for Northern Star Resources, bolstering its production capacity and resource base. Investors are advised to keep a close watch on the regulatory developments and progress at the Hemi Gold Project, as these factors will play a pivotal role in shaping the combined company’s future.
n November 2024, Germany's Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 43.2 from 43.0 in October, exceeding market expectations of 43.0. However, this value remains below the 50-point threshold, indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector due to weak demand and a lack of new orders. (tradingeconomics.com)
Production volumes have been declining at a slower pace for the second consecutive month, reaching the lowest level of contraction since June, though the overall reduction remains significant by historical standards. Additionally, manufacturers are cutting jobs at an accelerated pace, particularly in the automotive industry and its supply chains, where major cost-cutting measures were recently announced. Both product and input prices continue to decline, reflecting deeper and faster reductions. (tradingeconomics.com)
At the same time, Germany’s Composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services, dropped to 47.3 in November from 48.6 in October. This marks the fifth consecutive month of declining business activity and the sharpest contraction since February. This is attributed to ongoing weakness in manufacturing and the first decline in services activity in nine months. (tradingeconomics.com)
Thus, despite a slight improvement in the Manufacturing PMI, Germany’s overall economic situation remains challenging, with ongoing declines in business activity and weak demand across both goods and services sectors.
The decline in the PMI reflects ongoing weakening demand, leading to reductions in production volumes and employment. In November, there was a significant decrease in new orders, as well as the most substantial reduction in workforce numbers since August 2020.
Additionally, companies scaled back their purchasing activities, and stocks of both purchases and finished goods were lowered. Prices for raw materials and finished products continued to decline. However, the rate of decrease in purchase prices slowed compared to the previous month. Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, noted that the weakening euro could lead to an increase in purchase prices in the coming months, especially if the European Commission imposes counter-tariffs in response to potential U.S. tariff hikes.
Therefore, the eurozone's manufacturing sector continues to face significant challenges related to declining demand, reductions in production and employment, and uncertainty regarding future trade conditions.
In October 2024, the unemployment rate in the eurozone remained steady at 6.3%, aligning with both the previous figure and market expectations. This rate continues to reflect historically low levels, indicating stability in the region's labour market. (tradingeconomics.com)
However, the situation varies significantly across member countries:
Youth unemployment (under 25) in the eurozone increased slightly to 14.4% in September from 14.3% in August. (tradingeconomics.com)
Overall, despite general stability, the eurozone labour market shows considerable disparities between countries and age groups.
In November 2024, sales of AvtoVAZ vehicles in Russia increased by 9.8% compared to the same period last year. However, according to the company's CEO, Maxim Sokolov, current sales are 25–30% below planned figures. He also noted that if the key interest rate continues to rise, the new car market in Russia could shrink by 21–30% in 2025 compared to 2024, down to 1.3–1.4 million units.
At the same time, AvtoVAZ is not abandoning its plans to produce 500,000 Lada vehicles in 2025, as previously approved by the board of directors.
Thus, despite the sales growth in November, the company faces challenges related to macroeconomic factors and changes in the key interest rate, which could impact the market in the near future.
Nebius Group, formerly known as Yandex N.V., has raised $700 million in a private placement from investors including Nvidia, Accel, and certain funds managed by Orbis Investments. Founded by Arkady Volozh following the split of Yandex's assets in July 2024, the company aims to accelerate the development of graphics processing unit (GPU) clusters, cloud platforms, and other tools for artificial intelligence developers.
As part of this financing, Nebius issued 33,333,334 Class A shares at $21 per share, representing approximately a 3% premium to the volume-weighted average price of these shares since Nasdaq trading resumed. The company also raised its annualized revenue forecast for the end of 2025 to a range of $750 million to $1 billion, up from the previous estimate of $500 million.
Previously, Nebius's board of directors had approved a share buyback program. However, considering the strong level of investor engagement and favorable trading conditions on Nasdaq, the company decided not to proceed with the buyback. Board Chairman John Boynton noted that shareholders wishing to sell their shares had the opportunity to do so at a price higher than the maximum repurchase price authorized by shareholders.
Thus, Nebius continues to strengthen its position in the artificial intelligence infrastructure sector by attracting significant investments and focusing on expanding its capabilities to meet the growing demand for AI solutions.
PTC Therapeutics has entered into a licensing agreement with Novartis AG worth up to $2.9 billion for the development of its experimental drug PTC518, designed to treat Huntington's disease. The deal includes an upfront payment of $1 billion, with additional milestone payments of up to $1.9 billion for development and commercialization achievements. Once the current phase of clinical trials concludes, expected in the first half of 2025, Novartis will take over further development, manufacturing, and commercialization of the drug. Profits and losses in the U.S. will be shared between PTC and Novartis on a 40/60 basis. The deal is expected to close in Q1 2025. ()
Following the announcement, shares of PTC Therapeutics surged 20% in premarket trading. ()
ntel Corp. announced the resignation of CEO Pat Gelsinger, effective immediately. Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner and Executive Vice President Michelle Johnston Holthaus will serve as interim co-CEOs while the board searches for a permanent successor.
Gelsinger took over as CEO in 2021 with the goal of restoring Intel's leadership in semiconductor manufacturing. However, during his tenure, the company faced financial challenges, including a decline in market value and lagging behind competitors like Nvidia and TSMC. In response, Intel implemented cost-cutting measures, including laying off 15,000 employees and suspending dividend payments.
Following the announcement of Gelsinger's resignation, Intel's shares rose more than 3%, reflecting investor optimism about the company's future leadership.
Current stock price of Intel Corp. (INTC):
Intel Corp. (INTC)Intel Corp.
$24.91
+$0.86+3.58%Сегодня
In November 2024, Canada's Manufacturing PMI increased to 52.0 from 51.1 in October, reaching its highest level in 21 months. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector. This growth is attributed to the Bank of Canada's interest rate cuts, which boosted domestic demand despite supply chain delays caused by port strikes. Output and new order indices also rose, though export orders have been contracting for the 15th consecutive month. ()
iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC) is a fund in the USA market. The price is currently 42.79 USD, down by -0.46000 (-0.01064%) from the previous close. The intraday high is 43.4 USD, and the intraday low is 42.77 USD. The latest trade time is Monday, December 02, 15:59:32 UTC
In November 2024, the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI increased to 49.7 from 48.5 in October, surpassing analysts' expectations. Although the index shows improvement, it remains below the 50 threshold, indicating a continued but slowing contraction in the sector.
The rise in the index is attributed to a slowdown in the decline of new orders and an increase in production activity. However, ongoing supply chain issues and inflationary pressures continue to impact the manufacturing sector.
Current price of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY):
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
$602.69
+$0.14+0.02%Сегодня
In November 2024, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for the U.S. rose to 48.4% from 46.5% in October, beating analysts' expectations. Despite the improvement, the index remains below the 50% threshold, indicating a continued contraction in manufacturing activity, albeit at a slower pace. ()
The rise in the index is attributed to an increase in new orders, which showed positive growth for the first time in eight months, and a slowdown in raw material price increases. However, the manufacturing sector continues to face challenges, including the lingering effects of previous Federal Reserve rate hikes and ongoing supply chain issues. ()
Current price of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY):
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is a fund in the USA market. The price is 602.66 USD currently with a change of 0.11000 (0.00018%) from the previous close. The intraday high is 603.65 USD, and the intraday low is 601.18 USD. The latest trade time is Monday, December 02, 16:03:46 UTC