Tuesday, December 10, 2024: Analysis of Key Events and Reports
Macroeconomic Events
06:00 (MSK): China – Global Trade Data for November
China’s trade statistics, including exports and imports, will reveal the state of global demand and supply chains. Strong export growth could signal resilience in global consumption, while weak figures might suggest a slowdown in the international economy.
06:30 (MSK): Australia – Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to provide insights into the state of the Australian economy, particularly regarding inflation and growth. A rate hike or dovish comments could influence the Australian dollar and regional equity markets.
10:00 (MSK): Germany – Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November
As Europe’s largest economy, Germany’s inflation data serves as a key indicator for the entire Eurozone. A rise in CPI could increase expectations for tighter monetary policy from the European Central Bank, while weaker numbers may justify continued caution.
15:00 (MSK): 189th OPEC Conference
This major event for the oil market will see discussions on production quotas among member nations. The outcome could significantly impact global oil prices, with implications for energy markets worldwide.
20:00 (MSK): USA – WASDE Report
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will provide key updates on global crop production and stock levels. This report will influence the commodity markets, particularly agricultural futures.
00:30 (MSK): USA – API Crude Oil Stock Data
Preliminary oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) will offer initial guidance ahead of the official EIA report, potentially affecting crude oil prices.
Impact on Europe and the United States
-
Europe:
Germany’s inflation data could impact the ECB’s monetary stance, shaping market expectations across the Eurozone. Additionally, decisions made at the OPEC conference might affect energy costs, influencing European industries and households. -
United States:
The WASDE report may shift dynamics in agricultural commodities, impacting prices of key crops like corn, wheat, and soybeans. API oil data will provide early signals on crude supply levels, which can influence energy stocks and broader market sentiment.
Impact on Investors
- Energy Markets: The OPEC conference and API data are critical for traders and investors in oil markets. Monitor price reactions and adjust portfolios accordingly.
- Currency Markets: Australia’s rate decision will influence the AUD, while Germany’s CPI may impact the EUR. U.S. dollar movements could be driven by commodity market responses.
- Commodities: The WASDE report will shape trading strategies in agricultural futures, and investors should watch for any surprises that could disrupt market trends.
Key Corporate Reports
Pre-market:
- Autozone (AZO): Earnings report expected at 14:55 (MSK). Analysts predict a 2.6% increase in revenue, driven by strong sales in vehicle maintenance products. The market will focus on margins amidst inflationary pressures.
- Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc (ASO): Report scheduled for 16:00 (MSK). Anticipated decline of 2.0% due to weaker-than-expected holiday sales.
- Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (OLLI): Report at 15:30 (MSK), with an expected growth of 8.0%. Investors will look for updates on store expansion plans and customer traffic.
After-market:
- GameStop Corp (GME): Results due at 00:05 (MSK). Projected decline of 16.5%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the retail gaming sector and inventory management.
- Dave & Buster's Entertainment Inc (PLAY): Scheduled for 00:05 (MSK). Expected change: -1.5%, with the market focusing on revenue from entertainment services.
- Stitch Fix Inc (SFIX): Report at 00:05 (MSK). Anticipated revenue drop of 16.1% due to slowing subscriber growth and operational challenges.
My Commentary on Tuesday’s Events
As the founder of Open Oil Market, I view today’s events as crucial for understanding the trajectory of global markets. China’s trade data will serve as a barometer for international demand, influencing commodity prices and export-driven economies. Meanwhile, Australia’s interest rate decision could set the tone for regional monetary policies, impacting investor sentiment across Asia-Pacific markets.
For Europe, Germany’s inflation figures will provide insights into the ECB’s future moves, particularly in the context of energy price volatility stemming from OPEC decisions. In the U.S., the WASDE report and API oil data are key drivers for commodity investors, shaping the outlook for agricultural and energy sectors.
Corporate earnings will add another layer of complexity. Reports from companies like Autozone and GameStop will highlight sector-specific trends and broader consumer behavior. Staying informed about these developments will be essential for navigating today’s volatile market conditions effectively.
🇦🇺 #MonetaryPolicy #Australia #CentralBank
Australia: Key interest rate unchanged at 4.35%
(Expected: 4.35%, Previous: 4.35%)
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained its key interest rate at 4.35%, in line with expectations. At the same time, the RBA softened its hawkish rhetoric, noting growing confidence that inflation is returning to the target range.
Implications and impact:
The softened stance suggests the RBA might be nearing the end of its tightening cycle, which has already weakened the Australian dollar. This shift could provide room for economic stimulation if required, but it also raises the risk of premature easing. Investors will closely monitor economic indicators to assess potential future policy changes.
🇨🇳 #Trade #Economy #China #Report
China: Trade Data for November (in USD)
Import breakdown (YoY):
China's imports in November experienced their sharpest decline in 14 months, falling by -3.9% YoY, significantly below market expectations. Exports rose by +6.7%, though growth slowed compared to previous months, reflecting weakening global demand.
Implications and impact:
The drop in imports highlights China's internal economic challenges, such as weak domestic demand and potential effects of tightened measures in the real sector. The export slowdown underscores global economic instability, which could weaken China’s role as a leading exporter.
The sharp increase in coal and oil imports reflects rising energy needs, while the decline in gas and iron ore imports signals weakness in specific industrial sectors. These trends may influence global commodity prices as well as currency and stock markets connected to China
🇺🇸 #ORCL Oracle
Oracle's shares fell by 8% following the release of its financial report. The company reported revenue of $14.06 billion, slightly below analysts' expectations of $14.1 billion. Earnings per share came in at $1.47, just under the forecast of $1.48. Despite a 52% growth in cloud infrastructure revenue, the overall results failed to meet the market's high expectations.
Source:
🇺🇸 #AI C3.ai
C3.ai shares rose by 5% after posting a quarterly report that exceeded expectations. The company reported a loss of 6 cents per share, significantly better than the 16-cent loss forecast by analysts. Revenue grew by 29% to $94.3 million, beating the expected $91 million. The growth was driven by increased demand for enterprise AI software and expanded partnerships with Microsoft.
Source:
🇺🇸 #TOL Toll Brothers
Shares of Toll Brothers declined by 3% following the release of its financial results. While specific details of the report were not provided, the drop may be attributed to concerns about a slowing housing market or other sector-related issues.
Significance and Impact:
Investors should monitor further reports and trends in these sectors for better insights.
🇺🇸 #LLY #Buyback
Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) has announced a new $15 billion share buyback program, following the completion of its previous $5 billion program in the last quarter of 2024. The company’s board of directors also approved a 15% increase in its quarterly dividend, marking the seventh consecutive annual increase. The first-quarter 2025 dividend will be $1.50 per share, payable on March 10, 2025, to shareholders of record as of February 14, 2025.
Source:
Significance and Impact:
As of the latest trading session, Eli Lilly shares were trading at $803.58, down 2.83% compared to the previous close.
Значение и влияние новости:
Для Palantir и Microstrategy:
Включение в Nasdaq 100 повысит их привлекательность для инвесторов, так как индекс Nasdaq 100 отслеживается множеством фондов и ETF. Это может привести к росту ликвидности акций и их капитализации.
Для Moderna:
Выход из индекса может снизить внимание инвесторов, ориентированных на индексы, и повлиять на ликвидность акций компании.
Для рынка:
Эти изменения отражают динамику в структурах капитала и предпочтениях инвесторов, делая акцент на высокотехнологичных и перспективных компаниях.
Инвесторам рекомендуется обратить внимание на эту ротацию, так как изменения в составе Nasdaq 100 часто влияют на рынок в краткосрочной перспективе.