Detailed Analysis of Key Events on Friday, December 6, 2024
07:30 MSK: India — Interest Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce its key interest rate decision. Maintaining the current rate may indicate economic stability. A rate cut aims to stimulate growth but could pressure the Indian rupee, while a hike would strengthen the rupee but might dampen domestic demand.
10:00 MSK: Germany — Industrial Production for October
Industrial production is a vital indicator of Germany's economic health, the Eurozone's largest exporter. An increase suggests economic recovery, benefiting the euro, whereas a slowdown may raise concerns about a Eurozone recession.
13:00 MSK: Eurozone — Q3 2024 GDP
The Eurozone's Gross Domestic Product data for the third quarter will provide insights into the region's economic recovery pace. Positive figures could bolster the euro and market optimism, while weak data might exert pressure on the currency and dampen market sentiment.
16:30 MSK: USA — Nonfarm Payrolls Report for November
The Nonfarm Payrolls report is crucial for assessing the U.S. economy. Job growth exceeding expectations would boost economic confidence and strengthen the dollar. Conversely, weaker data could cast doubt on growth sustainability and affect stock markets.
16:30 MSK: USA — Unemployment Rate for November
Unemployment data will shed light on the U.S. labor market. A declining rate indicates economic strengthening, while an increase may heighten recession fears.
18:00 MSK: USA — University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December (Preliminary Data)
This index gauges consumer outlook on current and future economic conditions. An uptick can support markets by reflecting consumer confidence, which drives domestic demand.
18:00 MSK: USA — Consumer Inflation Expectations for December (Preliminary Data)
These figures reveal consumer expectations of future price increases. Moderate inflation expectations are favorable, indicating manageable inflationary pressures.
21:00 MSK: USA — Baker Hughes Rig Count
This report monitors activity in the oil and gas sector. An increase in rig count suggests higher oil production, potentially pressuring prices. A decrease could lead to rising oil prices, benefiting exporters like Russia.
Speeches by Central Bank Representatives (Bowman, Goolsbee, Daly, Federal Reserve)
Comments from Federal Reserve officials may offer clues about monetary policy plans. Statements regarding potential rate adjustments will prompt reactions in currency and stock markets.
Detailed Analysis of Key Corporate Events on Friday, December 6, 2024
1. Investor Days
Inter RAO (IRAO): The company is hosting an Investor Day where management will present strategic plans, key projects, and financial results. As a major player in Russia's electricity market, Inter RAO may disclose developments in export contracts, energy innovations, and sustainability approaches. This information is crucial for assessing the company's long-term appeal.
Sberbank (SBER): Russia's largest bank is also holding an Investor Day. Sberbank is expected to highlight digital transformation initiatives and recent financial performance. Such events often feature announcements that can influence market expectations and share value. Insights into new development directions may reinforce Sberbank's leadership in the banking sector.
2. Extraordinary General Meetings of Shareholders (EGM)
Severstal (CHMF): The EGM will consider a third-quarter dividend payout of 49.06 rubles per share, signaling stable profits despite a volatile metals market. The dividend yield enhances the attractiveness of Severstal's shares for long-term, income-focused investors.
Lukoil (LKOH): The EGM plans to approve dividends of 514 rubles per share for the first nine months of 2024, confirming the company's high yield and ability to generate steady cash flow despite external challenges. For energy sector investors, Lukoil's dividend policy remains a key draw.
HeadHunter (HEAD): Shareholders will decide on dividends of 907 rubles per share for 2021–2024, underscoring the company's confidence in its financials and commitment to returning funds to shareholders. This decision is significant for the stock market, given the growing demand for HeadHunter's recruitment services.
3. Last Days with Dividend Rights
WUSH Holding (WUSH): The final day to purchase shares with the right to a 2.11 ruble dividend, potentially increasing investor interest, especially among those seeking yield.
Henderson (HNFG): The last day to acquire shares with dividends of 8.38 and 9.62 rubles. The combined yield makes the company's shares appealing for short-term strategies. However, post-ex-dividend, shares may adjust by the dividend amount.
Friday, December 6, 2024, is packed with significant economic events that could substantially impact the Russian economy. Key events include:
1. RBI Interest Rate Decision (07:30 MSK)
Changes in India's interest rate can affect borrowing costs and the country's investment appeal. For Russia, as a BRICS partner, this may influence bilateral trade and investment flows.
2. Germany's Industrial Production for October (10:00 MSK)
Germany is Russia's leading European trade partner. An increase in industrial production indicates higher demand for Russian energy and raw materials, positively affecting exports. A decline could reduce export volumes.
3. Eurozone Q3 2024 GDP (13:00 MSK)
GDP reflects the Eurozone's overall economic state. Positive data strengthen the euro and may boost demand for Russian goods. Negative figures could weaken the euro and decrease Russia's export revenues.
4. U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Report for November (16:30 MSK)
This report influences the dollar and global financial markets. Strong data can strengthen the dollar, leading to a weaker ruble and higher import prices. Weak data may weaken the dollar, strengthening the rub
Recommendations for Traders and Investors:
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Monitor macroeconomic indicators from Germany and the Eurozone, as they affect demand for Russian goods and the ruble's exchange rate.
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Pay attention to U.S. data, especially Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rates, as they influence the dollar and, consequently, the ruble.
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Analyze oil price dynamics, considering rig count data and U.S. consumer sentiment, to forecast revenues for Russian oil companies.
Overall, Friday's events could significantly impact the Russian economy through changes in exports, exchange rates, and energy prices. It's advisable to closely monitor key indicators and prepare for potential market fluctuations.
As the founder of Open Oil Market, I believe that Friday's events provide a clear picture of global economic trends, which inevitably reflect on the Russian market. U.S. employment data, macroeconomic indicators from the Eurozone and Germany, as well as India's rate decisions, shape the overall sentiment in commodity and currency markets. For Russia, it's crucial to focus on oil price dynamics and U.S. rig activity, as these directly impact budget revenues and ruble stability. These events serve as a guide for traders and investors to make balanced and strategically important decisions.
🔥🇪🇺#Europe #Economy #Report
Eurozone GDP (Q3 2024)
QoQ = +0.4% (expected +0.4% / previous +0.2%)
YoY = +0.9% (expected +0.9% / previous +0.6%)
According to Eurostat, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the eurozone grew by 0.4% in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the previous quarter, and by 0.9% year-on-year. These figures align with preliminary estimates and analysts' expectations. ()
For comparison, in Q2 2024, the eurozone's GDP increased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and by 0.6% year-on-year. ()
The GDP growth in Q3 was the most significant in the past two years, indicating a gradual recovery of the region's economy. ()
However, growth dynamics varied across countries:
Germany: The economy grew by 0.2%, narrowly avoiding a recession. ()
France: Growth was 0.4%, accelerating compared to the previous quarter. ()
Ireland: A substantial 2% growth, partially driven by the activity of multinational corporations. ()
Spain: The economy expanded by 0.8%, maintaining its previous quarter's pace. ()
Italy: GDP remained flat after a 0.2% increase in Q2. ()
Latvia: A 0.4% contraction, worsening from the previous quarter. ()
These results reflect the uneven economic recovery across eurozone countries.
#Oil #Forecast
Morgan Stanley Raises Oil Price Forecast
Morgan Stanley has revised its forecast for Brent crude oil prices for the second half of 2025, raising it to $70 per barrel from the previous estimate of $66–68. This adjustment follows OPEC+'s decision to delay production increases by three months, extending production cuts until September 2026, nine months longer than initially planned. ()
As a result of these changes, the bank lowered its production forecast for OPEC-9 countries by 400,000 barrels per day in 2025 and by 700,000 barrels per day in Q4 2025. Iran's production forecast was also reduced by 100,000 barrels per day. ()
Excess oil supply in 2025 is now expected to decrease from 1.3 million to 0.8 million barrels per day for total liquids and from 0.7 million to 0.3 million barrels per day for crude oil alone. ()
At the time of publication, Brent crude was trading at approximately $71.88 per barrel, while WTI futures were at $68.15. ()
Previously, in September 2024, Morgan Stanley had lowered its Brent price forecast for Q4 2024 to $75 per barrel, citing signs of weakening demand. ()
However, the recent OPEC+ decision to adjust its production plans has led to an upward revision of the forecast. ()
This adjustment reflects OPEC+'s impact on the supply-demand balance in the global oil market.
#NonFarms #Economy #USA #Report
- Actual: 227K
- Expected: 202K
- Previous: 12K (revised from 36K)
- Actual: 4.2%
- Expected: 4.2%
- Previous: 4.1%
Analysis:U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (November):
U.S. Unemployment Rate (November):
Implications:Non-Farm Payrolls: The U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs in November, exceeding expectations of 202,000. This is a significant improvement compared to the previous month, where job creation was revised to 12,000. The labor market shows resilience despite economic uncertainties.
Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2% from 4.1%, aligning with expectations. This may indicate an increase in the labor force as more people actively search for jobs.
These figures could influence Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates and monetary policy heading into 2025.