Tuesday, 3 December 2024: Analysis of Key Events and Reports
On Tuesday, 3 December 2024, several significant macroeconomic indicators and corporate reports are scheduled for release, which could substantially impact financial markets.
International Events:
-
10:00 MSK: Turkey – Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November. This indicator reflects inflation dynamics in the country. An increase in CPI may indicate rising price pressures, influencing the Central Bank of Turkey's decisions regarding interest rates.
-
10:30 MSK: Switzerland – Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November. Changes in Switzerland's inflation levels affect the monetary policy of the Swiss National Bank and, consequently, the Swiss franc's exchange rate.
-
15:00 MSK: Brazil – GDP for Q3 2024. Data on GDP growth or decline provide insights into Brazil's economic health, potentially affecting investment decisions concerning emerging markets.
-
18:00 MSK: USA – Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for October. This indicator reflects labor demand and can serve as a gauge of labor market conditions, influencing expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.
-
00:30 MSK: USA – API Crude Oil Stock Change. Changes in crude oil inventories impact energy prices, directly affecting oil companies and the broader economy.
Speeches by central bank representatives, including Williams, Kugler, Goolsbee (Federal Reserve), and Cipollone (ECB), may provide additional signals regarding future monetary policy.
European Impact:
-
Inflation in Turkey and Switzerland:
-
Turkey: Rising inflation could lead to higher interest rates, potentially causing capital outflows from Europe to Turkey, affecting European financial markets.
-
Switzerland: Changes in Swiss inflation may influence the Swiss franc's value, impacting trade and investment flows between Switzerland and the Eurozone.
-
-
Brazil's Q3 2024 GDP:
- As a significant trading partner, Brazil's economic performance can affect European export-oriented industries, especially in sectors like machinery and chemicals.
-
U.S. JOLTS Report:
- Strong U.S. labor market data could lead to expectations of tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, strengthening the dollar and potentially weakening the euro, impacting European exporters.
-
API Crude Oil Stock Change:
- Changes in U.S. crude oil inventories can influence global oil prices. A rise in inventories might lead to lower oil prices, benefiting European economies reliant on energy imports.
Corporate Reports:
-
Salesforce Inc ($CRM): Report after U.S. market close. Expected revenue growth of 7.1%, indicating stable development in the cloud solutions sector.
-
Okta Inc ($OKTA): Expected revenue growth of 11.2%, reflecting increased demand for cybersecurity solutions.
-
Marvell Technology Inc ($MRVL): Expected revenue growth of 2.2%, suggesting stability in the semiconductor industry.
-
Pure Storage Inc ($PSTG): Expected revenue growth of 6.8%, indicating sustained demand for data storage solutions.
These corporate reports can influence European markets, especially if these companies have significant operations or partnerships within Europe.
In summary, the events of Tuesday, 3 December 2024, are poised to impact European financial markets through various channels, including trade relations, currency exchange rates, and commodity prices.
As of December 3, 2024, the financial markets exhibit the following key indicators:
Indexes and Futures:
Commodities:
Cryptocurrencies:
These figures reflect current trends in the financial markets, with minor fluctuations in commodity and cryptocurrency prices. Investors are advised to monitor global economic developments and geopolitical conditions that may influence further changes
According to a study by VTB presented at the "Russia Calling!" investment forum, global natural gas consumption is expected to increase by 10% by 2030. However, in the European Union, consumption is projected to decline by 12.5% over the same period. This decrease is primarily driven by the transition to renewable energy sources and the implementation of energy efficiency programs.
Regarding Russia's oil production, VTB analysts forecast a 1% increase in 2025, bringing output to 470 million tonnes. This growth is attributed to rising global oil demand and the potential easing of restrictions under OPEC+ agreements. However, according to OPEC, Russia's oil production in 2025 is expected to remain stable at 10.81 million barrels per day, supported by new projects offsetting declines at older fields. ()
Thus, while global gas consumption is set to rise, a decline in Europe could impact export strategies. At the same time, Russia’s oil sector shows potential for moderate production growth in the coming years.
According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), annual inflation in Turkey fell to 47.09% in November 2024, marking its lowest level since June 2023. Monthly consumer price growth reached 2.24%, exceeding analysts' expectations of 1.91%. ()
Key factors influencing inflation include rising food and pharmaceutical prices. The Central Bank of Turkey noted that high food prices would continue to significantly impact consumer inflation in the coming months. ()
In response to inflationary risks, the Central Bank of Turkey has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 50% since March 2024. In November, the regulator left the rate unchanged again, emphasizing the careful monitoring of inflation risks. ()
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, addressing the anticipated minimum wage increase effective January 1, 2025, referred to the Central Bank's forecast that inflation would reach 44% by the end of the year. He emphasized that the government is committed to mitigating inflation's negative effects on citizens' welfare. ()
Despite some deceleration in inflation, the rate remains high, necessitating the continuation of tight monetary policies and price control measures, particularly in sectors sensitive to food and energy cost fluctuations.
According to data from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Switzerland decreased by 0.1% in November 2024 compared to the previous month, in line with analysts' expectations. On an annual basis, inflation reached 0.7%, slightly below the forecast of 0.8% but higher than October's 0.6%. ()
This moderate inflation growth remains within the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) target range of 0% to 2%. However, the lower-than-expected figures have increased market expectations for a potential rate cut at the upcoming SNB meeting scheduled for December 12. Earlier in 2024, the SNB reduced the benchmark rate three times by 25 basis points each, bringing it to the current level of 1%. ()
Analysts, such as Karsten Junius, Chief Economist at J. Safra Sarasin, predict a 50-basis-point cut in December, followed by further reductions of 25 basis points in March and June 2025, potentially bringing the rate to zero. The possibility of negative interest rates is also being discussed but is considered a less likely measure. ()
If necessary, the SNB may resort to foreign exchange interventions to prevent imported deflation, although the Swiss franc is not currently deemed significantly overvalued. ()
Thus, current inflation figures and expectations suggest the SNB may pursue further monetary policy easing in the coming months.
According to preliminary data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), wholesale sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China reached 1.46 million units in November 2024, setting a new monthly record. This marks a 6% increase compared to the previous month and a 51% year-on-year growth.
Performance of Key Manufacturers:
BYD: In November, the company sold 504,003 passenger vehicles, a 67.2% year-on-year increase, setting another monthly record. ()
Tesla: Sales of China-made vehicles totaled 78,856 units, a 4.3% decrease compared to November 2023. However, deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y increased by 15.5% compared to October 2024. ()
Li Auto: The company delivered over 50,000 vehicles in October, a 27.3% year-on-year increase. Total deliveries for 2024 reached 393,255 units, surpassing its total sales for 2023. ()
Market Trends:
In July 2024, NEV sales in China surpassed internal combustion engine vehicle sales for the first time, accounting for 50.84% of total sales. () This trend continued, with September NEV sales reaching 1.287 million units, a 42.3% year-on-year increase. ()
Outlook:
NEVs are expected to account for 50% of China’s auto market by 2025 and up to 90% by 2035. ()
Thus, the NEV market in China continues its robust growth, driven by strong domestic demand and export momentum. Leading manufacturers are breaking sales records, accelerating the transition to environmentally friendly transportation.
Analysts predict a continued rise in precious metal prices in 2025. According to a report by consulting firm Kept, the average global gold price is expected to increase by 9% compared to the current year, reaching $2,527 per troy ounce. Silver, they estimate, will rise by 11%, reaching $31 per ounce. ()
However, according to Capital Economics, after peaking in 2025, gold prices may start to decline. They forecast that the average gold price in 2026 will decrease by 1.3% compared to the previous year, and in 2027, it will drop by another 3.8%, reaching $2,398 per ounce. ()
Thus, while gold and silver prices are expected to rise in the short term, a potential correction in their value is possible in the longer term.
In October 2024, the number of job openings in the U.S. labor market, as reported in the JOLTS survey, reached 7.744 million, exceeding analysts' expectations (7.510 million) and the previous figure (7.443 million).
Key Metrics:
Job Openings: Increased to 7.744 million, indicating growing demand for labor.
Hires and Separations: Detailed data on hires and separations provide additional insights into labor market dynamics.
Economic Implications:
The rise in job openings suggests heightened competition for skilled workers, which could lead to wage growth and increased inflationary pressure. The Federal Reserve closely monitors these figures when making monetary policy decisions.
Market Reaction:
The release of JOLTS data can impact stock indices and currency exchange rates, reflecting investor expectations for economic growth and potential Fed actions.
Thus, the increase in job openings in October 2024 highlights the continued recovery of the U.S. labor market, potentially influencing broader economic trends and financial markets.