The Moscow Fuel Association (MTA) reported that last week, retail gasoline prices at gas stations in the capital rose by 17-18 kopecks, while diesel prices increased by 27 kopecks.

The end of autumn is objectively a period of transition from summer and interseasonal to winter diesel fuel, which contributes to price increases. Currently, according to the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange (SPbMTSB), the price of winter diesel fuel is 23% higher than that of summer diesel.

An equally important factor is the lag in diesel price growth compared to the overall inflation rate. By November 11, 2024, cumulative inflation was 7%, while the retail price increase for diesel was 4.9% and for gasoline it was 8.7%.

Oil companies need to compensate for losses caused by forced downtimes, which led to a decrease in the production of petroleum products. According to Rosstat, total petroleum product production decreased by 2.4% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2024. The price increase for diesel provides them with such an opportunity and allows them to avoid negative reactions from regulators, as the diesel price increase remains within the inflation limits.

Many associate the rise in gasoline prices with a possible lifting of the export ban. However, according to analysts at OPEN OIL MARKET, this is not entirely true. Current fluctuations are still in line with the "10-20" formula, according to which oil companies lose their right to subsidies if average monthly gasoline prices exceed the internal reference price by 10%, or diesel prices exceed it by 20%. The upper threshold for the exchange price of gasoline is 64,515 rubles per ton. Currently, gasoline is trading at 60,500 rubles per ton, with prices remaining below this level for most of the month. Therefore, the current price increase is not anomalous.

The price increase for AI-98 gasoline is ahead of the others. While prices for AI-92 gasoline have risen by an average of 7.2% since the beginning of the year, and AI-95 gasoline by 7.6%, AI-98 gasoline has seen a 17.5% increase. However, Rosstat is unlikely to exclude AI-98 from its calculation of the overall price index.

This year's periodic fuel price hikes are of a different nature than last year's. For example, the fuel crisis of July-September 2023 was linked to planned cuts in the damper payments. As a result, oil companies opted to compensate for losses by sharply raising exchange prices. This year, no adjustments have been made to the damper mechanisms, but oil companies have faced losses due to downtimes and damage to refinery infrastructure. According to Rosstat, total petroleum product production decreased by 2.4% in the first nine months of 2024.

Therefore, this year it is much more difficult for oil companies to keep prices within acceptable limits for regulators. As a result, the risks of gasoline price increases remain regardless of the season.

Translated using ChatGPT.

  
Source:   https://companies.rbc.ru/news/sgmyJceBG3/pochemu-rastet-tsena-na-benzin-i-dizelnoe-toplivo-osenyu-2024-goda/