In 2025, fuel prices at gas stations will continue to rise, but this growth is unlikely to exceed the overall inflation rate in the country. The strongest price increases will be seen in high-octane gasoline grades such as AI-95, AI-98, and higher, according to experts interviewed by the "Russian Newspaper."

According to Alexander Kotov, head of consulting at NEFT Research, an increase in fuel prices is inevitable in both wholesale and retail segments in 2025. The main reason for this will be the next rise in the tax burden, in the form of higher fuel excise duties. Naturally, this will be reflected in the cost of the fuel produced, and ultimately, the consumer will pay for it. Not only drivers but also ordinary citizens will bear the cost when buying any goods, as the price of automotive logistics is included in the final price of both food and industrial products.

Starting from January 1, 2025, the excise tax on class 5 gasoline will increase by 14% (to 17,088 rubles per ton), and the excise tax on diesel fuel will rise by 16% (to 12,120 rubles per ton). This significantly exceeds the overall rate of consumer price growth: according to Rosstat, by December 23, 2024, inflation for the year had reached 9.5%. The most common gasoline grades, AI-92 and AI-95, slightly exceeded the average inflation rate, increasing by 9.7% and 9.8%, respectively. Premium gasoline grades like AI-98 and higher saw the largest increase, rising by 20.2%. Diesel fuel (DT) lagged behind inflation, increasing by 7.9% since the start of the year.

Kotov believes that the greatest price increases will occur in the high-octane gasoline segment. Its production does not have a significant surplus (unlike AI-92), meaning that any force majeure event could lead to a decrease in supply and, consequently, a price increase. Moreover, demand for high-octane fuel is continuously growing with the increasing number of cars with high-performance and turbocharged engines.

Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the OPEN OIL MARKET fuel marketplace, shares a similar view. He specifies that the risks of accelerated price increases will primarily affect the gasoline market, which historically has had a significantly lower surplus of production capacity compared to the diesel market. This can be seen in the share of exports in the structure of fuel deliveries from Russian refineries: until 2022, the share of diesel fuel exports was about 50%, but since then, it has dropped to 40% (due to increased demand from heavy machinery in Russia), while the share of gasoline exports never exceeded 15%. Therefore, the gasoline market is more sensitive to production reductions than the diesel market.

Rosstat has stopped publishing detailed statistics on fuel production. However, from the available data, it is clear that the total production of petroleum products in Russia declined by 2.4% (year on year) in the first 11 months of 2024. The situation with fuel production is unlikely to improve in the coming months due to sanctions on the supply of equipment for oil refineries (NPZs). Therefore, the gasoline market will continue to face risks of shortages, according to Tereshkin.

Changes in tax legislation could also influence fuel price dynamics in the domestic market. For example, at the end of 2024, the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service (FAS) proposed separating the dampener payments (compensation to oil companies from the state budget for part of the lost export revenue for supplying fuel to the domestic market at low prices) for AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline. Currently, the dampener is calculated only for AI-92 based on exchange trading indicators, but it also covers the supply volumes of AI-95 to the domestic market. There may also be attempts to reduce dampener payments in case of falling oil prices and declining budget revenues from the sector. The last attempt to reduce the dampener by half in 2023 led to an autumn fuel crisis.

Kotov notes that the Ministry of Finance has repeatedly attempted to change the dampener mechanism to reduce payments. It is likely that the new mechanism will again focus on this goal (though officially, the aim is said to be the additional stabilization of the high-octane gasoline market). As a result, refineries will receive less money, and profitability will decrease, which will lead to further price increases both in wholesale and retail.

Tereshkin believes that the mere separation of payments for different grades of gasoline will not have an impact.

He argues that changes in the calculation of dampener subsidies will not significantly affect retail fuel prices. The dampener only applies to exchange trading, which accounts for only 15% of wholesale fuel sales. On the other hand, the dampener will not affect AI-98 gasoline, which will remain the leader in price increases.


Translated using ChatGPT

Sourse: rg.ru/2025/01/07/eksperty-rasskazali-kakoe-toplivo-budet-silnee-dorozhat-na-azs-v-2025-godu.html