Is the production of petroleum products decreasing in Russia?

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Is Oil Product Production Decreasing in Russia? Insights for 2024
17.10.2024
17
In 2024, Rosstat stopped publishing weekly and monthly statistics on the production of automotive gasoline and diesel in Russia, forcing industry participants to rely on indirect indicators of fuel output.

Analysts from OPEN OIL MARKET analyzed the main available indicators and found that:

Marine exports of petroleum products have decreased the most this year — by nearly a quarter. This indicator is influenced by factors such as unscheduled refinery repairs and other geopolitical events.

According to S&P Global Platts, marine shipments of petroleum products from Russia in September 2024 increased by 8%, reaching 2.16 million barrels per day (bpd). However, this is still 520,000 bpd lower than in January 2024 (2.68 million bpd).

This gap cannot be explained solely by the gasoline export ban, as prior to the ban, the volume of gasoline exports was under 150,000 bpd.

Oil and petroleum product loading on Russia's rail network in the first nine months of 2024 decreased by 0.7% compared to the same period in 2023, to 155.6 million tons.

The volume of crude oil deliveries to refineries, which decreased by 3.5% in the first seven months of 2024 to 135.2 million tons, according to CDU TEK data (no more recent data available). Media reports state that deliveries to some refineries have fallen by more than 30%.

The composite index of petroleum product production, published by Rosstat without quantitative indicators, decreased by 2.7% in the first eight months of 2024.

The main conclusion: Indirect indicators suggest that petroleum product production continues to decline. This is putting pressure on the gasoline market, where retail price growth is significantly outpacing the general inflation rate.

The decline in production is linked to unscheduled repairs at refineries, the completion of which is difficult to predict due to sanctions on the supply of refining equipment.

This is the key difficulty of the current fuel crisis: in order to saturate the market, fuel production needs to be ramped up. However, neither companies nor industry participants can accurately predict how long the downtime of certain technological units will take. This factor, in itself, contributes to rising price expectations.




Translated using ChatGPT.


Source: https://companies.rbc.ru/news/Q1jdOeCT5a/sokraschaetsya-li-proizvodstvo-nefteproduktov-v-rf/
#Energy infrastructure issues #Russian fuel market 2024 #Russia's oil exports #Oil production drop #Energy market crisis #Fuel export decline #Russian sanctions impact #Russian economy 2024 #Oil market analysis #Russian energy sector #Fuel production decline #Oil refining #Russian oil industry #Russia oil product production
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