What will happen to oil and gas budget revenues by the end of the year?

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What Will Happen to Russia’s Oil and Gas Revenues by the End of 2024?
06.11.2024
20
Нефтегазовые доходы (НГД) федерального бюджета в октябре составили 1,2 трлн руб., превысив аналогичный показатель за прошлый месяц на 55% (771,9 млрд), следует из данных, опубликованных на сайте Минфина. При этом по сравнению с аналогичным периодом прошлого года показатель снизился на 25% – тогда поступления достигли 1,6 трлн. Разница между фактическим и ожидаемым объемом дополнительных НГД за октябрь оказалась отрицательной – казна недополучила 17,6 млрд руб., сообщило министерство. По прогнозам Минфина, в ноябре ожидается 105,1 млрд руб. дополнительных НГД.

Сергей Терешкин, основатель и генеральный директор OPEN OIL MARKET:Сергей Терешкин, основатель Open Oil Market

- Ключевой причиной роста бюджетных поступлений стали поступления по НДД – налогу на дополнительный доход, который учитывает не только цены и объем извлекаемого сырья, но и выручку от его реализации, за вычетом расходов на добычу и транспортировку. В октябре 2024 г. сборы по НДД составили 491,6 млрд руб.

Почти 100% поступлений по НДД приходятся на четыре месяца года: март, апрель, июль и октябрь. По итогам октября 2024 г. накопленный объем поступлений по НДД достиг 2,05 трлн руб., на 58% превысив показатель двенадцати месяцев 2023 г. (1,29 трлн руб.).

На увеличение нефтегазовых доходов сыграло и сокращение субсидий для НПЗ. В октябре 2024 г. нефтяники получили 242,7 млрд руб. по демпферу, обратному акцизу и инвестнадбавке – на 64,1 млрд руб. меньше, чем в сентябре 2023 г.

По итогам первых девяти месяцев 2024 г. на долю нефтегазовых доходов пришлось 31,7% поступлений федерального бюджета. (8,33 трлн из 26,29 трлн руб.); данные по октябрю пока не доступны. В целом, за 12 месяцев 2024 г. доля нефтегазовых доходов останется вблизи текущего уровня. В следующем году эта доля может сократиться до менее чем 30% – как из-за повышения базовой ставки налога на прибыль, так и рисков снижения цен на нефть на фоне роста добычи в странах ОПЕК+.



Translated using ChatGPT.


Source:   https://www.vedomosti.ru/economics/articles/2024/11/06/1073170-chto-budet-s-neftegazovimi-dohodami-b.
#Oil and Gas Revenues #Budget Forecast #Energy Sector #Economic Analysis #Oil Prices #Gas Market #Russian Economy #Global Energy Trends #Economic Projections
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