India will remain the largest maritime importer of Russian oil in the coming years, partly due to the potential for growing demand, Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of the OPEN OIL MARKET marketplace for petroleum products and raw materials, told Izvestia on October 30.

"The role of India in Russian oil exports continues to grow. In September 2022, maritime shipments of oil from Russia to India amounted to 850,000 barrels per day (b/d), increasing to 1.52 million b/d in September 2023, and reaching 1.92 million b/d in September 2024. According to S&P Global Platts, India's share in Russia's maritime oil shipments during this period rose from 29% to 44%, and further to 55%," the expert noted.

At the same time, he clarified that China's share in September 2022 was 32%, rising to 36% in September 2023, and slightly decreasing to 35% in September 2024, excluding pipeline deliveries.

"India will remain the largest maritime importer of Russian oil in the coming years, partly due to the prospects for growing demand. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), India will account for 40% of the global increase in oil demand up to 2030 (1.3 million b/d out of 3.2 million b/d)," Tereshkin added.

He explained that a key driver of this growth will be urbanization: in 2023, cities accounted for 65% of the population in China, while in India, this figure was only 36%. Bridging this gap will lead to increased demand for petroleum products in the transportation sector, especially since India significantly lags behind China in the adoption of electric vehicles. For instance, in China, electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles accounted for 38% of new passenger cars in 2023, compared to just 2% in India.

"Another factor will be the commissioning of new refineries, which will address the deficit in refining capacity and create additional demand for oil. According to the Energy Institute, in 2023, India's oil refining volumes exceeded the design capacity of its refineries by 3%. The IEA forecasts that by 2030, India's refining capacity will increase by 1 million b/d, positively impacting Russian oil supplies," Tereshkin said.

In his opinion, Russian exporters will also benefit from the prolonged stagnation of India's oil production sector. In 2013, India's oil production stood at 921,000 b/d, compared to 728,000 b/d in 2023—more than twice as low as the current volume of Russian oil supplies to India. Thus, Russian suppliers' raw materials will continue to find stable demand in India, the General Director of OPEN OIL MARKET assured.

Earlier, on August 23, Stanislav Mitrakhovich, a leading expert at the National Energy Security Fund and the Financial University under the Government of Russia, also suggested that China and India would remain the largest buyers of Russian oil for decades to come. He noted that India purchases Russian oil at a discount. Moreover, the country has the capacity to process Russian oil into petroleum products and export them to other regions, generating additional income.






Translated using ChatGPT.


Source:   https://iz.ru/1782790/2024-10-30/ekspert-otcenil-perspektivy-postavok-rossiiskoi-nefti-v-indiiu