Experts predict a decrease in oil prices in 2025

/ /
Experts Forecast a Drop in Oil Prices in 2025
05.11.2024
16
Experts predict a decrease in oil prices next year. According to analysts, crude oil will become cheaper amid rising production in the United States and OPEC+ countries.

Sergey Tereshkin, Founder and CEO of OPEN OIL MARKET:
"In 2025, the average price of Brent crude will drop below $70 per barrel. Key production growth will come from countries outside the OPEC+ agreement, including the United States, Brazil, Guyana, Canada, and Argentina.

The fact that OPEC+ postponed increasing quotas from October to December is directly related to the rising output in North and South America. OPEC+ countries cannot delay this decision indefinitely; sooner or later, the key participants in the deal may lose their resolve. It's no coincidence that rumors about Saudi Arabia's plans to boost oil production have surfaced in the media in recent weeks.














Translated using ChatGPT.


Source:   https://www.vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2024/11/05/1072892-eksperti-prognoziruyut-snizhenie-tsen-.
Leave a comment:
Message text*
Drag files here
No entries have been found.
You might be interested
A commentary with a forecast of budget revenues from oil and gas trade for Vedomosti.

In the article "What Will Happen to Oil and Gas Revenues in the Budget by the End of the Year," Sergey Tereshkin, founder and CEO of OPEN OIL MARKET, analyzes the dynamics of oil and gas revenues in Russia's federal budget for October 2024. He notes that revenues amounted to 1.2 trillion rubles, which is 55% higher than in September but 25% lower compared to October of last year. The main driver of revenue growth was an increase in collections under the Additional Income Tax (AIT), which reached 491.6 billion rubles in October. Tereshkin also points to the reduction in subsidies for oil refineries, which contributed to the increase in budget revenues.

According to his forecast, the share of oil and gas revenues in the federal budget for 2024 will remain around 31.7%, but it may decrease to less than 30% next year due to an increase in the base corporate tax rate and a potential drop in oil prices amid rising production in OPEC+ countries.
Comment for "Vedomosti" on the increase in budget revenues from oil and gas.
In 2024, the share of oil and gas revenues in Russia's budget is growing faster than anticipated. What is driving this increase, how will it impact the economy, and will the country be able to handle potential risks? Read more about this in our article.
Tereshkin: The average price of Brent oil in 2024 will be slightly below $80 per barrel (Prime news agency).
Analysts forecast the average price of Brent oil in 2024 to be around $85 per barrel. What factors will influence the market? How will supply and demand change? And what does this mean for Russia's economy and the global energy sector? Find out more in our article.
The article examines the decline in global demand for diesel fuel and its impact on Russia. It focuses on the key reasons behind this trend, including the shift to clean energy, stricter environmental regulations, and changes in demand structure. The discussion also covers potential consequences for the Russian economy, given its reliance on hydrocarbon exports, and explores possible adaptation strategies.
Tereshkin: Wholesale and retail prices for AI-95 gasoline will remain stable until the end of the year.
Amid economic instability and rising energy prices, maintaining the current cost of AI-95 gasoline has become a key issue for consumers and businesses. What factors are influencing the fuel market, and what can we expect in the coming months? Read more in our article.
Comment for "Rossiyskaya Gazeta" on Gasoline Price Dynamics
The article linked discusses the situation with gasoline prices in Russia. While prices at gas stations continue to rise, a decrease is observed on the exchanges. This may indicate a potential upcoming shift in trends in the retail market. The reasons behind these fluctuations are analyzed, including seasonal demand, logistics, and the impact of tax policy.
Expert Tereshkin: Russia's Oil Exports to Increase by Over 10% by Year-End (Izvestia)

An expert predicts that Russia's oil exports will increase by more than 10% by the end of the year. The reduction in gasoline exports, effective from August to December 2024, may lead to a redirection of crude oil to external markets. Additionally, the easing of OPEC+ quotas will allow Russia to boost oil production, further contributing to the growth in exports.
Commentary for "Rossiyskaya Gazeta".
The article “The Export Ban Slowed the Growth of Exchange Gasoline Prices” discusses the impact of the August 2024 ban on gasoline exports on the Russian fuel market. Despite the export restrictions, exchange prices for gasoline remain close to annual highs. The price increase is particularly notable for AI-95 gasoline, which is attributed to a mismatch between consumption patterns and exchange sales volumes. Experts emphasize that to stabilize prices, it is necessary to include AI-95 in the parameters of the damping mechanism or consider reducing fuel excise taxes.
Sergey Tereshkin's column for the VGUDOK publication.

The article discusses the impact of the OPEC+ deal on the transportation of oil and petroleum products via Russian Railways (RZD) networks. In the first half of 2024, cargo volumes decreased by 1.1% to 104.4 million tons, which is attributed to the reduction in oil production in Russia under the agreement. Despite this, oil and petroleum products remain high-margin cargo for RZD, providing a significant portion of the company's revenue. The article also explores the prospects for the transportation of these goods and their impact on RZD's financial performance.






Column by Sergey Tereshkin for the "Oil and Gas Industry" Portal

According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in the second quarter of 2024, global oil supply exceeded demand by 590,000 barrels per day. By the end of the year, this surplus is expected to narrow to 300,000 barrels per day.

Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the OPEN OIL MARKET platform for oil products and raw materials, explains this trend with the following factors:

Easing of OPEC+ quotas: Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other alliance members plan to increase oil production by December 2024, adding an extra 540,000 barrels per day to the market.

Rising production in Iran: Despite sanctions, Iran is ramping up oil production, reaching 3.25 million barrels per day in the first half of 2024, nearing its 2017 levels.

Growth in U.S. production: Output is projected to rise from 13.2 million barrels per day in the second quarter to 13.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by high prices that sustain profitability for shale projects.

Tereshkin notes that despite the increased supply, oil prices are expected to remain stable at around $80 per barrel until the end of 2024, with a potential price decline anticipated in early 2025.