Russia's Plans to Triple LNG Production and Capture a Quarter of the Global LNG Market Could Be Realized Despite Tough Sanctions

Russia's plans to triple its liquefied natural gas (LNG) production and capture 25% of the global LNG market are feasible even under ongoing strict sanctions. However, achieving these goals is unlikely to happen as quickly as initially planned. When could Russia increase its LNG production and exports, and what challenges must it overcome to do so?

Despite sanctions pressure on its LNG industry, Russia could still claim a 20–25% share of the global market, but likely only after 2035. This conclusion was drawn by analysts at Kept.

Russia had aimed to increase its global market share from 8% in 2023 to 20% by 2030—five years earlier than the revised timeline. To achieve this, the country planned to raise LNG production from 33 million tons in 2023 to 100 million tons by 2030, leveraging pre-approved projects. This was intended to partially offset reduced pipeline gas supplies to Europe, as noted by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak at the end of last year.

The first major project, "Arctic LNG-2," was expected to spearhead this growth, with its first phase scheduled to launch in 2024, adding 6.6 million tons of capacity per phase. The project envisions three phases with a total capacity of 19.8 million tons. Although the first phase began operations earlier this year, exports have been blocked by U.S. sanctions. These restrictions apply to all new Russian LNG projects, effectively halting exports from new facilities. Western nations had already banned the supply of LNG technology and equipment to Russia; now, the sale of gas itself is also prohibited. This has cast significant doubt on Novak’s previously announced plans.

However, Kept analysts


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Source:  https://vz.ru/economy/2024/10/15/1292433.html