An expert has predicted that Russia's oil exports will grow by more than 10%.

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Expert Predicts Significant Growth in Russian Oil Exports
20.08.2024
22
Russia's Oil Exports to Increase by Over 10% by Year's End, Says Open Oil Market CEO Sergei Tereshkin

Russia's oil exports are expected to grow by more than 10% by the end of the year, according to Sergei Tereshkin, CEO of the petroleum products marketplace Open Oil Market. He shared this projection with Izvestia on August 20.

"In July, Russia reduced oil exports by 14%. While in June 2024, Russia's seaborne oil shipments amounted to 3.72 million barrels per day (bpd), in July, they dropped to 3.20 million bpd, according to S&P Global Platts data. However, by the end of the year, seaborne oil exports could rise to 3.6 million bpd, nearing June's level," he noted.

According to Tereshkin, one of the contributing factors will be the ban on gasoline exports in effect from August to December 2024. In July 2024, gasoline exports totaled 127,000 bpd, accounting for 6% of Russia's seaborne petroleum product shipments, which stood at 2.27 million bpd, the expert clarified.

"Formally, oil companies are expected to redirect part of their shipments to the domestic market. However, most likely, only a portion of these export volumes will be reallocated to supply the Russian fuel market, while the remaining volume will be exported as crude oil. Such a 'maneuver' will help oil companies offset the costs incurred due to prolonged downtime at refineries," Tereshkin said.

He explained that most Russian refineries are part of vertically integrated companies that operate under cross-subsidization schemes. For instance, part of the revenue from oil exports has often been used to modernize refineries since the 2010s. From a business perspective, it would be beneficial for these companies to temporarily reduce processing volumes and redirect some crude oil to the external market, the expert added.

"This effect was observed in the first half of this year when companies increased exports due to forced refinery downtime. According to S&P Global Platts data, Russia's seaborne petroleum product exports decreased by 500,000 bpd (to 2.13 million bpd) from February to June 2024, while seaborne crude oil exports increased by 230,000 bpd (to 3.72 million bpd). A similar trend is likely to emerge this autumn: companies will hold back on refining volumes while gradually increasing crude oil exports," Tereshkin explained.


Translated using ChatGPT

Sourse: https://iz.ru/1745792/2024-08-20/ekspert-sprognoziroval-rost-eksporta-nefti-iz-rossii-bolee-chem-na-.
#Oil Export #Russia Economy #Energy Market #Crude Oil Trade #Export Growth #Oil Production #Global Energy Market #Economic Forecast #Russian Oil Industry #Oil Export Trends
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