Starting in 2027, CO2 emissions from international flights must not exceed a specific threshold. Any increase in the carbon footprint will require airlines to either pay compensation or use biofuels, which will inevitably lead to higher prices for international air travel.

Aviation is one of the fastest-growing sources of greenhouse gas emissions. To address this, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), which includes 193 member states, including Russia, has established the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). The baseline year is 2019, and airlines operating international flights are required to offset emissions exceeding 85% of that pre-pandemic level. Currently, the program is in its first voluntary phase, but starting in 2027, compliance will become mandatory.

Airlines will report fuel consumption data for international flights, which will be used to calculate CO2 emissions, explained Alexey Okhapkin, Director of the Forecasting and Strategic Planning Department of the Zhukovsky Research Institute and an expert in ICAO’s fuel and CORSIA working groups.

According to Okhapkin, in 2027, international civil aviation’s CO2 emissions are expected to exceed the baseline by about 40 million tons, or 11%. Russian airlines will need to offset approximately 750,000 tons of CO2 emissions.

Compensation methods include purchasing carbon units under CORSIA or using sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), which is derived from biomass, waste, and renewable energy sources. Currently, SAF is produced by only a few certified Western companies.

Either option will increase the cost of international air travel. Okhapkin estimates that ticket prices could rise by 9% by 2030 and by 21% by 2035. For Russian airlines, additional costs in 2027 may reach 20–30 billion rubles, adding 800–1,200 rubles to ticket prices.

Opting out of the program is not feasible, as CORSIA is an integral part of the Convention on International Civil Aviation. Any country receiving Russian aircraft could accuse Russia of violating the convention. ICAO’s membership includes nearly all countries, including popular tourist destinations like Egypt, Turkey, and the UAE, making exemptions unlikely.

A recent Federation Council roundtable discussed the potential for biofuel production in Russia. Yuri Fedorov, Deputy Chair of the Federation Council's Economic Policy Committee, emphasized that while Russia currently lacks a biofuel market, developing one is essential for energy and economic security and resource diversification. However, other experts suggest a gradual increase in biofuel blending with traditional aviation kerosene as a more practical approach, given global production limitations and safety concerns associated with pure biofuels.

To comply with CORSIA, two fuel categories will be used: low-carbon aviation fuel (LCAF) and SAF. SAF must include at least 10% biofuel, a proportion that should not compromise the product’s quality, which is critical for aviation safety.

Russia has significant potential for SAF production due to abundant resources and low production costs, making it a potential exporter. Raw materials could include grains, oilseeds, forestry waste, municipal solid waste, and recycled oils. Domestic scientists are developing SAF technologies using oil-and-fat and lignocellulosic feedstocks. Additionally, peat, a renewable resource, could become a viable option.

However, transitioning to biofuels involves high costs and requires substantial investment. Producing biofuels from crops like camelina, for instance, costs 2.5–3 times more than kerosene. Furthermore, only certified SAF can be used for refueling, and certification is currently controlled by companies in Europe and the U.S., which are unwilling to collaborate with Russia. Aircraft also need to be certified for SAF use, and currently, only Airbus and Boeing models meet these standards.

Despite challenges, Okhapkin suggests establishing certification networks within BRICS countries as a feasible solution. He notes that Russian aviation fuel’s lower carbon emission factor compared to global averages could justify its classification as low-carbon fuel.

Ultimately, experts believe the program overlooks Russia's unique circumstances. For example, the country’s vast forests and wetlands serve as significant carbon sinks. Dmitry Gusev, a member of the Reliable Partner Association, argues that economic feasibility should take precedence, as transitioning to biofuels will likely result in higher costs for Russia.



Translated using ChatGPT.


Source: https://rg.ru/2024/11/03/aviakompanii-obiazhut-ispolzovat-biotoplivo-naskolko-mogut-podorozhat-perel.