Earlier, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak mentioned the possibility of lifting the ban on exporting AI-92 gasoline from Russia, but only on the condition of confirmed surplus supplies of this grade at domestic oil refineries (ORs).

The export ban on gasoline was introduced in Russia in March of this year primarily as a preventive measure against potential fuel price increases, not only for gasoline but also for diesel fuel (DF). Most of the gasoline produced in Russia is intended for the domestic market, with no more than 15% being exported. The situation with DF is different, as up to half of the production volume is exported. In spring, there was no significant increase in gasoline prices, but diesel prices could have started rising during the sowing season. Thus, the measure was largely precautionary.

Unsurprisingly, the ban was lifted at the end of May, only to be reinstated in August after both wholesale and retail prices for gasoline rose sharply in June and July. This spike was mainly due to the high seasonal demand for gasoline during the vacation period, as well as rising oil prices at the time.

According to Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" Association and a member of the Expert Council of the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition, reopening exports is justified given the end of the high-demand season and the production capacities of Russian ORs. Should prices rise rapidly, the government retains the right to reintroduce the ban. Gasoline production volumes are being monitored, ensuring that there should be enough for both domestic needs and exports.

Gusev emphasizes that the sole condition for lifting the export ban should be maintaining control over Russian Railways (RZD). Even with sufficient production volumes and stable fuel shipments from ORs, delivery delays and issues with providing empty tank wagons to suppliers persist. Essentially, refineries are producing enough fuel, but RZD is delivering it irregularly, creating logistical challenges, the expert believes.

Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of the OPEN OIL MARKET petroleum product marketplace, notes that regulators cannot avoid lifting the export ban, as by the end of December, the current restrictions will have been in place for five months. In comparison, the previous ban introduced on March 1, 2024, lasted just two and a half months (from March 1 to May 17).

The purpose of the ban is to create an additional incentive to curb price increases, the expert explains. If prices stabilize, the regulator lifts the ban. Partial stabilization was observed around the turn of summer and autumn. Between May 21 and July 29, 2024, gasoline prices rose by a total of 3.8%, while in the subsequent 14 weeks, they increased by only 2.6%.

If the regulator delays lifting the ban, oil companies will lose incentives to contain prices. Why accept reduced revenues if exports remain prohibited? Therefore, the Ministry of Energy and the Federal Antimonopoly Service are likely to accommodate oil companies, Tereshkin believes.

Currently, the main risks are associated with rising DF prices, though its high-demand season has also ended. The primary driver of DF price increases is now the high demand for winter grades, which are traditionally produced in smaller quantities than summer grades. In October, DF price growth accelerated but not critically enough to warrant a preventive export ban or direct restrictions on DF exports.

As Tereshkin notes, for DF, oil companies traditionally use October-November as an "accepted" window for price hikes during the transition from summer and inter-seasonal to winter diesel fuel. If DF price growth slows down in December, no export ban should be expected.

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