An expert assessed the impact of increased gas exports on the Russian budget.

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Expert Analyzes the Effect of Gas Export Growth on Russia's Budget
07.10.2024
26
The increase in Russian gas exports will help minimize budget losses for Russia in 2025, Sergey Tereshkin, founder and CEO of the OPEN OIL MARKET petroleum products marketplace, told Izvestia on October 7.

"Gazprom continues to ramp up gas exports to Europe. In September 2024, pipeline gas deliveries to the EU increased by 3% compared to the previous month, reaching 101 million cubic meters per day. Over the first ten months of this year, deliveries rose by a third—from 73 million cubic meters per day in January–September 2023 to 98 million cubic meters per day in January–September 2024," he specified.

The expert noted that supplies via the Balkan branch of the TurkStream pipeline increased by 65% over the first nine months of 2024, reaching 55 million cubic meters per day. Meanwhile, deliveries through the Ukrainian gas transmission system remained nearly at the same level as the previous year—43 million cubic meters per day.

According to him, the ability of the Russian budget to minimize losses from the gas sector will largely depend on the further dynamics of gas exports to Europe.

"According to the draft federal budget, mineral extraction tax (MET) revenues from gas will decrease by 440 billion rubles in 2025, amounting to approximately 1 trillion rubles. The main reason is the expected cancellation of the MET surcharge on gas of 50 billion rubles per month, which Gazprom has been paying since 2023. If this surcharge is canceled, the budget will lose 600 billion rubles next year. However, these losses can be mitigated by increasing exports to Europe, which will boost gas production and MET collections on gas," Tereshkin explained.

He added that the actual throughput of the Balkan branch of TurkStream already exceeds its design capacity of 43 million cubic meters per day.

"Therefore, the volume of transit through the Ukrainian GTS will play a decisive role. Most likely, the gas transit agreement will be extended, influenced by the European consumers' interest in stabilizing the gas market and the high dependence of Austria and Hungary on Gazprom's supplies," concluded the CEO of OPEN OIL MARKET.

Earlier the same day, Vedomosti, citing data from Gazprom and the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas, reported that Russian gas exports to Europe (EU countries and Moldova) via pipelines increased by 17% year-on-year in January–September 2024, reaching 23.7 billion cubic meters. Stanislav Mitrakhovich, a leading expert at the National Energy Security Fund and the Financial University under the Government of Russia, told Izvestia that one of the main reasons for the increase in supplies is the price advantage of energy resources from Russia.

Translated using  ChatGPT

Sourse: https://iz.ru/1770948/2024-10-07/ekspert-otcenil-vliianie-uvelicheniia-eksporta-gaza-na-biudzhet-rf

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