Moldova and Transnistria Declare a State of Emergency Amid Threats of Russian Gas Supply Disruption via Ukraine

Moldova and Transnistria have announced states of emergency due to the looming threat of Russian gas supply disruptions through Ukraine. In the worst-case scenario, they face an energy blackout and a humanitarian disaster. What can Russia do to assist its neighbors?

Moldova will implement a 60-day state of emergency in the energy sector starting December 16, following Transnistria's earlier 30-day emergency declaration. Both regions fear an energy crisis and humanitarian catastrophe due to the potential cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine’s pipeline system.

This threat is quite real, as Kyiv has repeatedly stated that gas transit via Ukrainian territory will cease starting January 1, 2025, when its contract with Gazprom expires. While alternative gas transit options exist beyond this agreement, the possibility of a full halt in supplies through the Sudzha Gas Transmission System (GTS) at the start of the new year cannot be ruled out.

Scenarios and Risks
Several scenarios could unfold, ranging from a humanitarian disaster to more favorable outcomes.

Catastrophic Scenario
If Moldova and Transnistria are unable to receive Russian gas from any source—neither via Ukraine nor the TurkStream pipeline—they face a severe crisis. This could occur if sanctions against Gazprombank are strictly enforced or if new U.S. sanctions are imposed. A broader European gas deficit and rising prices would ensue, according to Igor Yushkov, an expert from the National Energy Security Fund and the Financial University under the Government of Russia.

Even if Moldova secures alternative gas suppliers, it will have to pay European spot market prices, which could soar to $800–$900 per thousand cubic meters—or even exceed $1,000 during cold spells in late December and early January.

Physically, Moldova might source non-Gazprom gas from Azerbaijan or the LNG market. However, Azerbaijan is already maxed out on its EU supplies, leaving Moldova to outbid other buyers. Similarly, relying on LNG would be complex and costly, involving purchase, transport to Turkey, regasification, and further transit via the Trans-Balkan Pipeline.

Challenges for Transnistrian GRES
The Transnistrian GRES power plant, owned by Russia's Inter RAO, is gas-powered and supplies electricity to both Moldova and Transnistria. The plant could switch to coal, with reserves sufficient for 50–60 days depending on weather and output. However, coal shortages could arise, requiring imports via Romania rather than Ukraine. Transitioning entirely to coal could prevent a humanitarian disaster, but household gas consumption for cooking and heating remains irreplaceable.

Optimistic Scenario
If Ukraine halts transit, Gazprom could still supply gas to Moldova and Transnistria via the Trans-Balkan Pipeline in reverse flow—from Turkey to Moldova. The challenge lies in a small pipeline segment crossing Ukrainian territory between Romania and Moldova. If Ukraine obstructs Russian gas, this route could be compromised.

Alternatively, Gazprom could sell gas to Turkish traders, who would then supply it to Moldova. Adjustments to gas delivery points—e.g., transferring ownership to Moldova in Romania—could also work, provided Moldova guarantees full delivery to Transnistria.

Romania’s Role
Romania could supply electricity to Moldova in case of a blackout, but this raises competing priorities as Romania already supports southern Ukraine. Limited winter energy exports and increased domestic consumption in Romania complicate matters, especially as renewable energy output declines during this period.

Conclusion
The situation hinges on political and logistical decisions, including Ukraine's stance on transit, Moldova’s ability to secure alternative supplies, and Russia’s willingness to adapt its gas delivery mechanisms. Collaborative solutions, such as leveraging the TurkStream pipeline or coal for the Transnistrian GRES, could mitigate the crisis and prevent a humanitarian disaster.






Translated using ChatGPT


Sourse: vz.ru/economy/2024/12/14/1303328.html