Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Friday, November 14, 2025. Analysis of Oil Surplus, Sanctions Against Russia, European Energy Risks, and New Nuclear and Renewable Energy Projects.
Global Oil Market: Supply Surplus Pressures Prices
Global oil prices remain under pressure due to signs of oversupply and weakening demand. After a sharp decline the previous day, prices stabilized on Thursday: Brent holds near $63 per barrel, while WTI hovers around $59. Investors are weighing the prospects of overproduction; recently, OPEC revised its forecast and now expects global oil supply to slightly exceed demand by 2026. Similarly, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for production growth outside OPEC+, signaling a possible surplus in the market next year. Against this backdrop, oil prices have dropped to their lowest levels in recent months.
Statistical data confirms the trend: commercial oil inventories are rising in key regions. In the U.S., crude oil inventories increased by about 1.3 million barrels during the week ending November 7, mirroring a similar situation in storage facilities across Europe and Asia. Analysts from Vortexa and Kpler estimate that a record volume of oil—approximately 1 billion barrels—has accumulated in tankers worldwide. A significant portion of this floating inventory consists of hard-to-sell oil from sanctioned countries (Russia, Iran, Venezuela), which ports are refusing to accept. Furthermore, an increase in exports from some major producers (such as Saudi Arabia) is also contributing to a temporary market oversupply. However, experts note the presence of a price “floor” around $60 per barrel in the short term due to supply disruption risks, particularly in light of anticipated stricter U.S. sanctions against Russian exports.
Russian Oil Under Sanctions: LUKOIL Seeks Alternatives, Asia Adjusts Imports
New sanctions against the Russian oil and gas sector are forcing companies and buyers to adapt. In October, the U.S. added oil companies "LUKOIL" and "Rosneft" to its sanctions list, obliging counterparties to complete all transactions with them by November 21. According to sources, "LUKOIL" has approached the U.S. Treasury Department requesting an extension of this deadline, as it requires more time to fulfill current contracts and sell overseas assets. Previously, the company had urgently sought to divest its international production, refining, and trading network, and a deal with Swiss trader Gunvor was reported; however, in early November, the U.S. Treasury expressed objections, causing the deal to collapse. As a result, LUKOIL's overseas operations have found themselves in limbo: the company has already declared a force majeure on its largest foreign production asset—the Iraqi West Qurna-2 field. Now, LUKOIL is rushing to find new buyers for its assets and hopes to receive an extension from U.S. regulators to exit projects smoothly.
Importers of Russian crude oil in Asia are also restructuring their supply chains. In India, the largest state-run oil refining corporation, Indian Oil, has announced a tender for oil supplies starting in early 2024, including Russian ESPO (Eastern Siberia Pacific Ocean) and "Sokol" crude oils in the list of possible grades. However, the tender condition stipulates that suppliers and loading ports must not be under U.S., EU, or U.K. sanctions. Thus, Indian refineries plan to continue purchasing Russian oil through alternative traders, circumventing direct cooperation with "Rosneft" and "LUKOIL." Meanwhile, another Indian refining enterprise, Nayara Energy (partially owned by "Rosneft"), stated that it will maintain significant volumes of imports from Russia despite the sanctions pressure.
In China, on the contrary, there has been a reduction in purchases of Russian oil by major players. Fearing secondary sanctions, a number of large state-owned refineries (including Sinopec and PetroChina) and independent "teapot" refineries have nearly halved their crude oil imports from Russia. This is largely due to the situation surrounding the private Shandong Yulong plant, which has been sanctioned by the U.K. and EU this year for dealing in Russian crude. According to Rystad Energy, the withdrawal of Chinese companies from Russian oil has affected around 400,000 barrels per day—down to 45% of the previous import volume to China. This has already impacted the market: prices for the Far Eastern ESPO grade have fallen to multi-month lows due to the decrease in Chinese demand. As a result, Russian suppliers are forced to redirect flows to other buyers and engage in more complex sales schemes through traders in third countries.
Refining Under Pressure: Russian Refineries Withstand Attacks
In parallel with the sanctions, fuel production and refining in Russia face physical threats. In 2025, Ukraine intensified drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure deep within the territory. Since the beginning of the year, at least 17 major refineries, oil depots, and pipelines have been targeted, presenting an unprecedented challenge for the industry. During the height of the second wave of attacks (August–October), up to 20% of Russia's total refining capacity was temporarily out of service (including planned maintenance). Nonetheless, Russian refiners have managed to avert a sharp decline: they quickly ramped up spare capacity at unaffected plants and swiftly repaired damaged installations. Industry data shows that the total volume of oil refining in Russia from January to October decreased by only ~3% compared to the same period last year (to about 5.2 million bbl/day). The production of petroleum products fell by just 6%, although due to the attacks, Russian authorities had to temporarily limit the export of gasoline and diesel fuel and enhance air defense measures around strategic energy facilities.
Kyiv claims that drone strikes have significantly undermined Russian fuel logistics, reducing domestic gasoline supplies by several tens of percent. However, Moscow declares that the market is stabilizing: the Russian government has instituted manual price controls and normalized supply, with President Vladimir Putin publicly assuring that the country "will not bend under external pressure." Experts note that in the short term, the Russian oil industry has shown resilience to shocks, but further escalation of attacks or tightening sanctions could create new risks for exports and production.
European Gas and Electricity: Winter Risks Amid Renewable Energy Deficits
In Europe, the peak heating season approaches with a less comfortable gas reserve than the previous year. EU gas storage facilities are not fully stocked: at the beginning of November, the average storage level was around 85% of capacity, whereas typically at this time it is close to 100%. In Germany—the largest gas consumer in Europe—storage facilities are filled to ~86%, partly because the country has been burning more gas for electricity generation this autumn. A decline in renewable energy generation (wind and hydro) has forced German energy producers to ramp up output at gas and coal-fired power plants. For the first ten months of 2025, electricity generation from gas in Germany increased by about 15% compared to the previous year (to 41.6 TWh), with gas accounting for 19% of generation—the highest level in the last decade. Concurrently, total generation from wind and hydroelectric sources in the region decreased by about 7% year-on-year, and the shortfall had to be compensated through "dirty" sources: in addition to gas, Germany increased coal generation by 4%.
The slow pace of filling storage facilities means that Europe enters winter with a less robust "safety cushion." Experts, however, believe that even with colder weather, the region will not face an acute gas deficit: reserves are close to historical averages, and record LNG import volumes allow for the replacement of much of the lost Russian supplies. Nevertheless, the situation in the energy market remains fragile. Continued weak winds or disruptions in LNG supplies could lead to price spikes for gas and electricity for consumers. EU authorities assure that the system is prepared for winter—the European Commission recently noted that gas volumes in storage and conservation measures allow Europe to confidently pass through the upcoming heating season without imposing consumption limits, although much will depend on weather conditions.
Sanctions and Energy: the U.S. Grants Hungary an Exception
On the geopolitical front, there have been news of a temporary easing of the sanctions regime. The United States has agreed to provide an exception for its EU ally—Hungary—exempting it from certain energy sanctions against Russia. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that for the next 12 months, restrictions will not apply to the supply of Russian oil and gas to Hungary via pipelines. Essentially, Budapest has received a one-year waiver to continue importing energy resources from Russia despite the overall sanctions regime in the West.
Additionally, the U.S. has indefinitely exempted the project to expand the Hungarian nuclear power plant Paks-2, which is being developed with the participation of Russian "Rosatom," from sanctions. Officially, Washington explains these steps as an effort to help Hungary ensure energy security and diversification. The decision followed talks between Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and U.S. President Donald Trump. Earlier, Orbán publicly stated that he had secured full exemption from U.S. sanctions for Hungary's import of Russian fuel, although it is clarified that the relaxation is temporary and applies only for one year. European partners within the EU have reacted cautiously to the U.S. maneuver as Hungary remains the most dependent country in the bloc on Russian energy resources.
Nuclear Energy: Britain Chooses Site for First SMR
In the UK, a significant step in the development of nuclear generation has been announced. Prime Minister Keir Starmer confirmed this week that the government has identified a site for the construction of the country's first small modular reactor (SMR). The chosen site will be the Wilfa area on Anglesey Island in North Wales, where a large nuclear power plant had previously been decommissioned. The project will utilize British technology from Rolls-Royce SMR and aims to enhance energy security and achieve climate objectives. It is expected that the compact reactor in Wales will supply electricity to up to 3 million homes and its construction will create around 3,000 jobs. The first electricity from the new facility is anticipated to enter the grid in the early 2030s.
However, the choice of the UK government has sparked diplomatic tension. The U.S. has been actively lobbying for an alternative project—a larger traditional nuclear power plant by Westinghouse on the same site—and sharply criticized London's decision. The American ambassador termed the emphasis on SMRs as "disappointing," claiming that small reactors would not ensure a rapid reduction of high electricity prices in Britain and would delay the commissioning of new capacities. The ambassador's statement included unusually harsh language towards a close ally. Officials in London countered that the choice of site and construction technology for a nuclear station is the sovereign right of the UK. The government emphasized that it does not reject partnerships with the U.S. in the nuclear sector—parallel efforts are being made to search for another site for a possible large nuclear power plant where American developments might be utilized. Experts note that the disputes surrounding the Welsh project reflect Britain’s desire to develop its own innovations in energy while balancing national interests with allied relations.
New Projects: Gas Discovery in Suriname Prepares for Development
Another promising source of gas has emerged in the global raw materials market. The state company of Suriname, Staatsolie, has announced the recognition of commercial viability for a large gas discovery in offshore Block 52. This concerns the Sloanea field, discovered by the Malaysian conglomerate Petronas, the operator of the block. Petronas holds 80% of the project, while the remaining 20% belong to Staatsolie's subdivision. The contract for exploration and production was signed back in 2013, and to date, three wells have been drilled with positive results, confirming significant gas reserves.
The consortium is now moving to the development stage. According to Staatsolie's statement, the concept for the development of Sloanea involves drilling underwater gas wells, establishing underwater infrastructure, and deploying a Floating LNG (FLNG) facility right at the extraction site. It is expected that Petronas will present a detailed development plan for regulatory approval. With favorable conditions, an investment decision may be made in the second half of 2026, with Suriname expecting its first gas volumes by 2030. The implementation of this project could transform the small country into a new LNG exporter and attract foreign investments into the region's energy sector.
Renewable Energy: Record Generations and Emissions Challenges
The renewable energy sector continues to experience robust growth, though climate metrics have yet to improve. New data from research centers indicates that global electricity generation from solar power plants increased by 31% over the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Wind energy has also shown significant growth. As a result, the total addition of new renewable capacity in 2025 is projected to rise by approximately 10% to 11%—meaning the world will once again set a record for expanding renewable generation. The increase in clean energy is already covering almost all of the additional demand for electricity: according to the International Energy Agency, the rise in wind and solar power production this year compensates for the lion's share of the global energy consumption increase.
Nevertheless, the historical high of greenhouse gas emissions continues to rise. The international research initiative Global Carbon Project has released a forecast indicating that in 2025, CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use will grow by another 1.1%, reaching a new record of approximately 38.1 billion tons of CO2. This indicates that even the record pace of renewable energy adoption is still insufficient to reduce the carbon footprint of the global economy. Experts are urging countries to double their efforts in transitioning to low-carbon technologies. According to IEA analysts, the rapid growth of cheap "green" electricity makes the global energy transition nearly inevitable; however, achieving climate goals by 2030 will require more decisive policy measures and investments.
