Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Friday, November 14, 2025. Analysis of Oil Surplus, Sanctions Against Russia, Risks to European Energy, and New Projects in Nuclear and Renewable Energy.
Global Oil Market: Supply Surplus Pressuring Prices
Global oil prices continue to feel pressure from signs of oversupply and weakening demand. Following a sharp drop the day before, prices stabilized on Thursday: Brent holds around $63 per barrel, while WTI hovers around $59. Investors are weighing the prospects of overproduction—recently, OPEC revised its forecast and expects global oil supply to slightly exceed demand by 2026. Similarly, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for non-OPEC+ production growth, signaling a potential market surplus next year. Against this backdrop, oil prices have fallen to their lowest levels in months.
Statistical data confirm this trend: commercial oil inventories are increasing in key regions. In the US, crude oil inventories rose by approximately 1.3 million barrels for the week ending November 7, and a similar pattern is observed in storage facilities in Europe and Asia. According to analysts at Vortexa and Kpler, record volumes of oil—about 1 billion barrels—have accumulated in tankers around the world. A significant portion of this floating stock consists of hard-to-market oil from sanctioned countries (Russia, Iran, Venezuela), which ports are refusing to accept. Additionally, increased exports from some major producers (like Saudi Arabia) are contributing to temporary market congestion. Nevertheless, experts note that there is a "floor" for prices around $60 per barrel—short-term market support is being provided by supply disruption risks, particularly the anticipated tightening of US sanctions against Russian exports.
Russian Oil Under Sanctions: LUKOIL Seeks Exit, Asia Adjusts Imports
New sanctions against the Russian oil and gas sector are forcing companies and buyers to adapt. In October, the US added oil companies LUKOIL and Rosneft to its sanctions list, requiring counterparties to cease all operations with them by November 21. According to sources, LUKOIL has approached the US Treasury Department to request an extension of this deadline, as it needs more time to fulfill current contracts and sell foreign assets. Previously, the company had been hurrying to sell its international network of production, refining, and trading, and there were reports of a deal with Swiss trader Gunvor; however, at the beginning of November, the US Treasury raised objections, causing the deal to fall through. As a result, LUKOIL's operations abroad have been left in limbo: the company has already declared force majeure at its largest foreign asset—West Qurna-2 in Iraq. Now, LUKOIL is urgently seeking new buyers for its assets and hopes to receive an extension from US regulators to smoothly exit projects.
Importers of Russian crude in Asia are also restructuring their supply chains. In India, the largest state-owned oil refining corporation Indian Oil has announced a tender for oil supplies in early 2024, including Russian grades ESPO (VSTO) and Sokol in the list of possible types. The tender's condition is that suppliers and loading ports must not be under US, EU, or UK sanctions. Thus, Indian refineries plan to continue sourcing Russian oil through alternative traders, bypassing direct cooperation with Rosneft and LUKOIL. Meanwhile, another Indian refining company, Nayara Energy (partly owned by Rosneft), has stated that it will maintain large volumes of imports from Russia despite the sanctions pressure.
In China, on the contrary, there has been a reduction in the purchase of Russian oil by major players. Fearing secondary sanctions, several large state-owned refineries (including Sinopec and PetroChina) and independent "teapot" refineries have cut imports of crude oil from Russia by nearly half. This decision was prompted by the situation surrounding Shandong Yulong, a private refinery that fell under UK and EU sanctions this year for dealing with Russian crude. According to Rystad Energy, the refusal of Chinese companies to import Russian oil has affected around 400,000 barrels per day—about 45% of the previous supply volume to China. This has already impacted the market, with prices for the Far Eastern ESPO grade falling to multi-month lows due to reduced Chinese demand. As a result, Russian suppliers are compelled to redirect supplies to other buyers and utilize more complex sales schemes through traders in third countries.
Refining Under Pressure: Russian Refineries Endure Attacks
Alongside sanctions, the extraction and processing of fuel in Russia face physical threats. In 2025, Ukraine has intensified drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure deep within its territory. Since the beginning of the year, at least 17 major refineries, oil depots, and pipelines have been hit, representing an unprecedented challenge for the industry. During the peak of the second wave of strikes (August-October), up to 20% of Russia's total refining capacity was temporarily knocked offline (including scheduled repairs). Nevertheless, Russian refiners have managed to avert a catastrophic decline: they quickly activated backup capacities at surviving plants and rapidly restored damaged installations. According to industry data, the total volume of oil refining in Russia from January to October decreased by only ~3% year-on-year (to about 5.2 million barrels per day). The production of petroleum products dropped by only 6%, although due to the attacks, Russian authorities had to temporarily limit gasoline and diesel exports and bolster air defense around strategic energy facilities.
Kyiv claims that drone strikes have significantly undermined Russian fuel logistics, reducing domestic gasoline supplies by dozens of percent. However, Moscow asserts that the market has stabilized: the Russian government has instituted manual price controls and normalized supplies, with President Vladimir Putin publicly assuring that the country "will not bend under external pressure." Experts note that in the short term, the Russian oil industry has demonstrated resilience against shocks, but further escalation of attacks or a tightening of sanctions could create new risks for exports and production.
European Gas and Electricity: Winter Risks Amid Renewable Energy Shortages
Europe is approaching the peak heating season with less comfortable gas reserves than a year ago. EU gas storage facilities are not fully filled; by early November, the average storage level was around 85% of maximum capacity, whereas typically they are close to 100% at this time of year. In Germany—the largest gas consumer in Europe—storage is about 86% full, partly because the country has been burning more gas for electricity generation this autumn. A decrease in output from renewable energy sources (wind and hydropower) has forced German energy producers to increase load on gas and coal-fired power plants. For the first ten months of 2025, gas-fired electricity generation in Germany rose by about 15% compared to the previous year (to 41.6 TWh), and the share of gas in generation increased to 19%—the highest in a decade. At the same time, total generation from wind and hydropower in the region decreased by approximately 7% year-on-year, and the lost volume had to be compensated for by "dirty" sources: in addition to gas, Germany increased coal generation by 4%.
Slowed filling rates for storage mean that Europe enters the winter with a less robust "safety cushion." However, experts believe that even in the case of colder weather, the region is not likely to face acute gas shortages: stocks are close to historical averages, and record volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports allow for the replacement of much of the lost Russian supplies. Nevertheless, the situation in the energy market remains fragile. Continuing weak winds or disruptions to LNG supplies could lead to spikes in gas and electricity prices for consumers. EU authorities assure that the system is ready for winter—recently, the European Commission noted that stored gas volumes and energy-saving measures enable Europe to confidently get through the upcoming heating period without imposing consumption limits, although much will depend on weather conditions.
Sanctions and Energy: US Grants Exemption to Hungary
On the geopolitical front, news has emerged regarding a temporary easing of sanctions. The United States has agreed to make an exemption for its EU ally—Hungary—freeing it from some energy sanctions against Russia. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that for the next 12 months, restrictions will not apply to the supply of Russian oil and gas to Hungary via pipelines. Essentially, Budapest has received a one-year grace period allowing it to continue importing energy resources from Russia, despite the overarching sanctions regime from the West.
Furthermore, the US has indefinitely exempted the expansion project of Hungary's Paks-2 nuclear power plant, which is being implemented with the involvement of Russia's Rosatom, from sanctions. Officially, Washington explains these steps as an effort to assist Hungary in ensuring energy security and diversification. The decision follows negotiations between Prime Minister Viktor Orban and US President Donald Trump. Earlier, Orban publicly stated that he had obtained a complete exemption from Washington concerning Hungary's import of Russian fuel, although it is specified that this easing is temporary and applies only for one year. European partners in the EU have viewed the US maneuver cautiously, as Hungary remains the most dependent country on Russian energy resources within the bloc.
Nuclear Energy: UK Chooses Site for First SMR
In the UK, an important step has been announced in the development of nuclear generation. Prime Minister Keir Starmer confirmed this week that the government has selected a site for constructing the country's first Small Modular Reactor (SMR). The selected site is Wilfa on the island of Anglesey in North Wales—previously home to a large nuclear power plant that has been decommissioned. The project will utilize British Roll-Royce SMR technology and aims to strengthen energy security and achieve climate goals. It is expected that the compact reactor in Wales could supply electricity to up to 3 million homes, and its construction will create around 3000 jobs. According to plans, the first electricity from the new facility is set to enter the grid in the early 2030s.
However, the British government's choice has sparked diplomatic tensions. The US has actively lobbied for an alternative project—a large traditional nuclear power plant from Westinghouse at the same site—and sharply criticized London's decision. The US ambassador described the bet on SMR as "disappointing," arguing that small reactors would not provide a quick reduction in high electricity prices in the UK and would delay the launch of new capacity. The ambassador's statement contained unusually harsh wording aimed at an ally. Officials in London countered that the choice of site and technology for constructing the nuclear plant is the sovereign right of the UK. The government emphasized that it is not abandoning its partnership with the US in the nuclear sector—parallel efforts are underway to find another site for a potential large nuclear power plant where American technologies could be utilized. Experts note that the disagreements surrounding the project in Wales reflect the UK's desire to develop its own innovations in energy while balancing national interests and allied relationships.
New Projects: Gas Field in Suriname Prepared for Development
Another promising source of gas has emerged in the global raw materials market. The state company of Suriname, Staatsolie, has announced the recognition of commercial viability for a large gas discovery at offshore Block 52. This concerns the Sloanea field, discovered by Malaysian conglomerate Petronas, which operates the block. Petronas holds 80% of the project, while the remaining 20% belongs to a subsidiary of Staatsolie. The exploration and production contract was signed back in 2013, and to date, three wells have been drilled with positive results confirming significant gas reserves.
The consortium is now moving to the development stage. According to a statement from Staatsolie, the development concept for Sloanea involves drilling underwater gas wells, establishing underwater infrastructure, and deploying a Floating LNG (FLNG) plant directly at the extraction site. Petronas is expected to present a detailed development plan for regulatory approval. In a favorable scenario, the investment decision may be made in the second half of 2026, and Suriname hopes to begin receiving its first volumes of gas by 2030. The realization of this project could turn the small country into a new exporter of liquefied gas and attract foreign investments in the region's energy sector.
Renewable Energy: Generation Records and Emission Challenges
The renewable energy segment is continuing to grow confidently, although climate indicators have not improved. According to new data from analytical centers, global electricity generation from solar power plants increased by 31% during the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. The wind energy sector is also demonstrating significant growth. As a result, the total installation of new renewable energy capacity in 2025 is expected to rise by about 10-11%—meaning the world will set another record for expanding renewable generation. Increased clean energy is already covering nearly all additional electricity demand: according to the International Energy Agency, the rise in wind and solar energy production this year compensates for the lion's share of the growth in global energy consumption.
However, at the same time, greenhouse gas emissions are reaching a historic maximum. The international research project Global Carbon Project has forecast that in 2025, CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use will increase by another 1.1%, reaching a new record of about 38.1 billion tons of CO2. This indicates that even record rates of renewable energy adoption are still insufficient to reduce the carbon footprint of the global economy. Experts urge countries to double their efforts towards transitioning to low-carbon technologies. According to IEA analysts, the rapid growth of cheap "green" electricity makes the global energy transition practically inevitable, but achieving climate goals by 2030 requires more decisive political measures and investments.
