Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Friday, November 14, 2025: Analysis of Oil Overproduction, Sanctions Against Russia, Risks in European Energy, and New Projects in Nuclear and Renewable Energy
Global Oil Market: Oversupply Pressures Prices
Global oil prices continue to be under pressure due to signs of oversupply and weakening demand. After a sharp decline the previous day, rates stabilized on Thursday: Brent hovered around $63 per barrel, while WTI remained near $59. Investors are weighing the prospects of overproduction, as OPEC recently revised its forecasts, expecting that global oil supply will slightly exceed demand by 2026. Similarly, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for non-OPEC+ production growth, signaling a potential market surplus next year. Against this backdrop, oil prices have fallen to the lowest levels in recent months.
Statistical data supports the trend: commercial oil inventories are rising in key regions. In the United States, crude oil stocks increased by approximately 1.3 million barrels for the week ending November 7, and a similar trend is observed in storage facilities across Europe and Asia. Analysts from Vortexa and Kpler estimate that a record volume of oil – around 1 billion barrels – has accumulated in tankers worldwide. A significant portion of this floating reserve consists of hard-to-market oil from sanctioned countries (Russia, Iran, Venezuela), which ports refuse to accept. Moreover, increased exports from some major producers (such as Saudi Arabia) are also contributing to the temporary overload of the market. Nevertheless, experts note that there is a "floor" for prices around $60 per barrel – in the short term, supply disruption risks, particularly the anticipated tightening of U.S. sanctions against Russian exports, are providing support to the market.
Russian Oil Under Sanctions: LUKOIL Seeks Solutions, Asia Adjusts Imports
New sanctions against the Russian oil and gas sector are forcing companies and buyers to adapt. In October, the U.S. added oil companies LUKOIL and Rosneft to the sanctions list, requiring counterparties to complete all operations with them by November 21. According to sources, LUKOIL has approached the U.S. Treasury Department requesting an extension, as it needs more time to fulfill existing contracts and divest foreign assets. Earlier, the company had urgently sought to sell its international production, refining, and trading network – reports indicated a deal with Swiss trader Gunvor, but in early November, the U.S. Treasury expressed objections, and the transaction fell through. As a result, LUKOIL's foreign operations are now in limbo: the company has already had to declare force majeure at its largest overseas production site – the West Qurna-2 field in Iraq. LUKOIL is now hastily seeking new buyers for its assets and hopes to secure an extension from U.S. regulators to exit its projects smoothly.
Importers of Russian crude in Asia are also restructuring their supply chains. In India, the largest state-owned oil refining corporation, Indian Oil, has announced a tender for oil supplies at the beginning of 2024, including possible varieties of Russian oil such as ESPO (Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean) and Sokol. However, the tender condition states that suppliers and shipment ports must not be under U.S., EU, or UK sanctions. Therefore, Indian refineries plan to continue purchasing Russian oil through alternative traders, circumventing direct cooperation with Rosneft and LUKOIL. Meanwhile, another Indian refining entity, Nayara Energy (partly owned by Rosneft), announced that it would maintain large volumes of imports from Russia despite the sanctions pressure.
In China, on the contrary, there is a reduction in Russian oil purchases by major players. Fearing secondary sanctions, several large state-owned refineries (including Sinopec and PetroChina) and independent "teapot" refiners have nearly halved their crude oil imports from Russia. This comes in light of the situation regarding the private Shandong Yulong plant, which was sanctioned by the UK and EU this year for dealing with Russian crude. According to Rystad Energy estimates, the Chinese companies' refusal to purchase Russian oil has affected approximately 400,000 barrels per day – a reduction of 45% from previous supply volumes to China. This has already impacted the market: Far East ESPO grades have dropped to multi-month lows due to decreased Chinese demand. As a result, Russian suppliers are forced to redirect flows to other buyers and employ more complex sales schemes through traders in third countries.
Refining Under Pressure: Russian Refineries withstanding Attacks
Alongside sanctions, fuel production and refining in Russia are facing physical threats. In 2025, Ukraine intensified drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure deep within the territory. Since the beginning of the year, at least 17 major refineries, oil depots, and pipelines have been hit, posing an unprecedented challenge for the industry. During the peak of the second wave of attacks (August-October), up to 20% of Russia's total refining capacity was temporarily taken offline (including planned maintenance). Nevertheless, Russian refiners managed to prevent a catastrophic decline: they quickly activated reserve capacities at surviving plants and rapidly restored damaged units. According to industry data, the total volume of oil refining in Russia from January to October declined by only ~3% compared to the same period last year (around 5.2 million barrels per day). The production of petroleum products decreased by only 6%, although due to the attacks, Russian authorities temporarily restricted the export of gasoline and diesel and intensified air defense around strategic energy facilities.
Kyiv claims that drone strikes have severely undermined Russian fuel logistics, cutting domestic gasoline supplies by dozens of percent. However, Moscow asserts that the market is stabilizing: the Russian government has introduced manual price control and normalized supply, while President Vladimir Putin publicly assured that the country would "not bend under external pressure." Experts note that in the short term, the Russian oil sector has demonstrated resilience to shocks, but further escalation of attacks or tightening of sanctions could create new risks for exports and production.
European Gas and Electricity: Winter Risks Amid RENI Shortfalls
In Europe, the peak heating season is approaching with a less comfortable gas reserve than the previous year. EU gas storage is not fully stocked: by early November, the average storage level was around 85% of maximum capacity, whereas usually it tends to be close to 100% at this time. In Germany – the largest gas consumer in Europe – storage facilities are filled to about 86%, partly due to the country burning more gas for electricity generation this autumn. A decrease in renewable energy output (wind and hydro) has forced German energy companies to increase the load on gas and coal-fired power plants. For the first ten months of 2025, electricity production from gas in Germany grew by approximately 15% compared to the previous year (to 41.6 TWh), and gas's share in generation rose to 19% – a high for the past decade. At the same time, total generation from wind and hydropower across the region has dropped by about 7% year-on-year, and this lost volume needed to be compensated by "dirtier" sources: besides gas, Germany raised coal generation by 4%.
Sluggish storage filling rates mean that Europe is entering winter with a less robust "safety cushion." However, experts believe that even in the event of colder weather, the region is not likely to face acute gas shortages: reserves are close to historical averages, and record levels of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports allow for the replacement of a large portion of missed Russian supplies. Nevertheless, the situation in the energy market remains fragile. Continued weak winds or disruptions in LNG supplies could lead to spikes in gas and electricity prices for consumers. EU authorities assure that the system is ready for winter – the European Commission recently noted that the gas volumes in underground storage and savings measures enable Europe to confidently navigate the upcoming heating season without implementing consumption restrictions, although much will depend on weather conditions.
Sanctions and Energy: The U.S. Grants Hungary an Exception
On the geopolitical front, there are news about a temporary easing of the sanctions regime. The United States has agreed to grant an exception for its EU ally Hungary, freeing it from some energy sanctions against Russia. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that for the next 12 months, restrictions will not apply to the delivery of Russian oil and gas to Hungary through pipelines. Essentially, Budapest has received a one-year extension allowing it to continue importing energy resources from Russia despite the overall Western sanctions regime.
Additionally, the U.S. has indefinitely exempted the expansion project of the Hungarian Paks-2 nuclear power plant, which is being implemented with the involvement of Russian Rosatom, from sanctions. Officially, Washington claims that these steps aim to assist Hungary in ensuring energy security and diversification. The decision followed negotiations between Prime Minister Viktor Orban and U.S. President Donald Trump. Earlier, Orban publicly stated that he had secured full exemption for Hungary from sanctions on importing Russian fuel, but it is specified that this easing is temporary and applies only for one year. European partners in the EU have received the U.S. maneuver with caution, as Hungary remains the country most dependent on Russian energy resources in the bloc.
Nuclear Energy: Britain Chooses Site for First SMR
In the UK, a significant step in the development of nuclear generation has been announced. Prime Minister Keir Starmer confirmed this week that the government has identified a site for the construction of the country's first Small Modular Reactor (SMR). It will be the Wilfa site on Anglesey Island in North Wales, where a large nuclear power plant that has been decommissioned was previously located. The project will be implemented using British technology from Rolls-Royce SMR and aims to strengthen energy security and meet climate goals. The compact reactor in Wales is expected to supply electricity to up to 3 million homes, and its construction will create around 3,000 jobs. The first electricity from the new facility is expected to enter the grid in the early 2030s.
However, the British government's choice has caused diplomatic tension. The U.S. has actively lobbied an alternative project – a large traditional nuclear power plant by Westinghouse at the same site – and sharply criticized London's decision. The American ambassador described the focus on SMR as "disappointing," asserting that small reactors would not ensure a quick reduction in high electricity prices in Britain and would delay the launch of new capacities. The ambassador's statement included unusually strong wording directed at an ally. Official figures in London countered that the choice of location and technology for building the nuclear station is a sovereign right of the UK. The government emphasized that it does not forsake its partnership with the U.S. in the nuclear field – a search for another site for a potential large nuclear power plant where American developments could be utilized is also ongoing. Experts note that the contradictions surrounding the project in Wales reflect Britain's desire to develop its innovations in energy while balancing national interests and allied relationships.
New Projects: Gas Field in Suriname Preparing for Development
A new promising source of gas has emerged in the global commodity market. The state company of Suriname, Staatsolie, announced the recognition of commercial viability for a large gas discovery in the offshore Block 52. This concerns the Sloanea field, discovered by Malaysian conglomerate Petronas – the operator of the block. Petronas holds 80% of the project, while the remaining 20% belongs to Staatsolie's subsidiary. The exploration and production contract was signed in 2013, and as of now, three wells have been drilled with positive results, confirming significant gas reserves.
The consortium is now moving to the development stage. According to Staatsolie's statement, the development concept for Sloanea includes drilling underwater gas wells, equipping underwater infrastructure, and deploying a floating LNG facility (FLNG) directly at the extraction site. Petronas is expected to present a detailed development plan for regulatory approval. If the outcome is favorable, an investment decision may be made in the second half of 2026, with Suriname anticipating its first volumes of gas by 2030. The implementation of this project could transform the small country into a new exporter of liquefied gas and attract foreign investment into the region's energy sector.
Renewable Energy: Generation Records and Emission Challenges
The segment of renewable energy continues to grow steadily, although climate indicators have yet to improve. According to new data from analytical centers, global electricity generation from solar power plants increased by 31% in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Wind energy is also showing substantial growth. As a result, the total new capacity of renewable energy in 2025 is expected to rise by approximately 10-11% – meaning the world will once again break records in renewable generation expansion. The growth of clean energy already covers nearly all additional electricity demand: according to the International Energy Agency, the increase in wind and solar energy production this year compensates for a large portion of the global energy consumption increase.
Nevertheless, at the same time, historical highs in greenhouse gas emissions are being updated. The international research project Global Carbon Project has published a forecast that in 2025, CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use will rise by another 1.1%, reaching a new record of about 38.1 billion tons of CO2. This indicates that even record rates of renewable energy adoption are still insufficient to reduce the carbon footprint of the global economy. Experts urge countries to double their efforts to transition to low-carbon technologies. According to IEA analysts, the rapid growth of cheap “green” electricity makes the global energy transition nearly inevitable, but to achieve climate goals by 2030, more decisive political measures and investment are required.
