Oil and Gas News and Energy Update for July 26, 2026: Brent Retreats to $97 After Breaking $100, TTF Gas Above €63/MWh, CTC Suspension, Ban on Gasoline Exports in Russia until Year-End, Newcastle Coal, Electricity, and Renewables. An Overview for Investors and Participants in the Fuel and Energy Market.
The global fuel and energy sector finishes the third decade of July in a state of heightened volatility. Prices for Brent crude oil, which broke the $100 per barrel mark for the first time in nearly two months on Thursday, lost some of their gains on Friday and returned to $97. However, by the end of the week, the commodity sector still increased by over 10%. European gas at the TTF hub stabilized above €63/MWh, marking the highest level since January 2023. Against this backdrop, the main corporate-regulatory news of the weekend emerged as Russian authorities announced the extension of the complete ban on gasoline exports until the end of 2026. Below is a comprehensive overview of the key events in the oil and gas, coal, and electricity sectors for investors, fuel companies, and stakeholders in the energy market.
Main Developments by Sunday Morning, July 26, 2026
- Oil: Brent reached a two-month peak near $102 on Thursday and closed above $100, but corrected by approximately 4% on Friday to $97 per barrel. WTI gave back about half of its six percent gain, trading near $88–89.
- Trends: Over the past month, Brent gained around 30%, and over the past year, it has increased by more than 40%. Weekly results show a rise of 10-12%.
- Gas: TTF futures peaked above €63/MWh, marking a record since January 2023; an increase of over 45% since the beginning of July and nearly double year-on-year.
- Logistics: Shipments through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium in Novorossiysk are halted, and Kazakhstan has reduced production.
- Russia: The ban on gasoline exports has been extended until the end of the year; diesel restrictions will be lifted gradually as the market recovers.
- Coal: Newcastle coal remains around $130 per ton amid modest demand from India.
- Electricity: A contract between OpenAI and Georgia Power for 3.2 GW solidifies data centers as a new driver of electricity demand.
Oil Market: Risk Premium Taken but Not Held
The oil market has traded on military updates for the fifth week rather than on supply and demand balances. The breakout above $100 for Brent occurred after Houthi attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea—an event that expanded the risk zone beyond the Strait of Hormuz and raised questions about alternative Saudi export routes. Friday's correction can be explained simply: oil continues to physically travel Middle Eastern routes, some tankers are operating with their transponders turned off, and technical indicators of overbought conditions required a pause after the fastest monthly rally since 2022.
Factors Supporting Prices
- Limited passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which traditionally accounts for about one-fifth of maritime oil trade.
- Threats to Red Sea ports: Riyadh warned of potential danger in the area of Yanbu—a terminal capable of shipping millions of barrels per day.
- Halting of Kazakh exports via the CTC, removing over 1% of global supply from the market.
- Increase in freight and insurance rates, which is reflected in refinery purchase prices.
- Longer shipping routes: Asian buyers are considering transporting Saudi oil through the Suez Canal and around Africa.
Factors Restraining Prices
- The U.S.-Iran negotiation track is formally unbroken: both sides confirm continued contacts mediated by Oman and Pakistan.
- China's interest in de-escalation: disruptions in the Persian Gulf are impacting the world's largest oil importer.
- Spare capacities of OPEC+ and the continued recovery of quotas.
Geopolitics: Dispute Over Passage Rules through Hormuz
The key storyline of the weekend is not military but legal. Tehran announced that Washington is attempting unilaterally to establish a new transit corridor through the Strait of Hormuz bypassing Iranian procedures, viewing it as a violation of the June Memorandum of Understanding. The U.S. insists that Iran does not control the Strait, while military sources confirm that navigation is supported by escort forces. Simultaneously, the U.S. has conducted its thirteenth consecutive night of strikes on Iranian infrastructure, threatening a "harsh military response" to further attacks on vessels in the Red Sea. This indicates to the market that the geopolitical risk premium in oil and gas prices will remain until a functioning transit mechanism is established, not merely until a formal ceasefire is achieved.
OPEC+: August 2 Meeting as the Main Scheduled Trigger
The alliance continues a phased restoration of production: on July 5, seven countries—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—agreed to an increase of 188,000 barrels per day for August. The next meeting is set for August 2 and will occur in a fundamentally different price reality than the previous one. The main issue for OPEC+ today is not quotas, but the fact that a significant portion of spare capacities is physically located in the Persian Gulf and depends on the Strait of Hormuz. The exit of the UAE from the alliance as of May 1, 2026, has further narrowed the manageable pool of supply, and the method for assessing maximum capacities being developed will form the basis for 2027 quotas—this represents a separate source of internal discord.
Gas Market: TTF at Record Levels, Winter Risks for Europe Increase
European gas has become the second epicenter of the crisis. The rise in TTF of over 45% since the beginning of July has been driven by a combination of structural factors: a reduction of Qatari LNG supplies following damage to facilities in Ras Laffan, the reorientation of Atlantic cargoes to premium Asia, abnormal heat in Europe heating up demand for electricity for air conditioning, and increased freight costs. The region's largest gas supplier has warned that the EU is unlikely to meet the target of 80% underground storage filling levels by the start of the heating season. The lagging injection rates compared to the five-year average make the winter of 2026-2027 a major risk for European industry and energy, with the window for accelerated injection narrowing: seasonal demand growth begins as early as the end of September.
CTC and Kazakhstan: Logistics as the Bottleneck for Exports
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium has suspended loading at the marine terminal near Novorossiysk following a series of drone attacks on tankers. As of July 21, Kazakhstan has halted the pumping of raw materials into the system: shipowners are refusing to approach offshore mooring devices, and some tankers are stuck in line. The Republic's Ministry of Energy confirmed a "controlled adjustment" of daily output to prevent tank farm overflow. The CTC accounts for over 80% of Kazakhstan's oil exports and connects the Tengiz and Kashagan fields, developed by Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Shell, to the Black Sea. For European refineries focused on the light low-sulfur CPC Blend, this means an urgent search for replacement batches in an already strained market.
Russia: Gasoline Export Ban Extended Until End of 2026
The key decision of the past week for the Russian petroleum market was announced on July 25: the complete ban on gasoline exports is extended until the end of the current year and applies to both producers and non-producers. Diesel restrictions are expected to be lifted gradually as the market recovers. The regime that was in place until July 31 thus transforms from a seasonal measure to a six-month one.
The context of the decision is the industry's most challenging summer in years:
- The volume of oil refining in June dropped to approximately 4.1 million barrels per day—the lowest in recent years—due to refinery damages;
- Attacks on plants continue: at the end of July, facilities in the Ulyanovsk region were affected, previously in Omsk and Saratov;
- The mandatory trading sale norm for Euro-5 gasoline has been reduced from 15% to 10% for the period until September 30;
- The import duty has been zeroed, and imports of petroleum products are increasing;
- Marine shipments of petroleum products in June reached a historic low.
Relevant authorities report a gradual improvement in fuel supply in some regions and a transition to a "targeted" management mode for shortages. Priorities remain the same: the harvest campaign, northern deliveries, and supply for Siberian regions. For oil companies, the extension of the embargo means a predictable, yet prolonged compression of export margins and the necessity to maintain high internal sales loads until the year's end.
Coal: A Quiet Harbor with Limited Upside
The coal market remains a beneficiary of the LNG shortage, but without a rush. Australian energy coal Newcastle 6000 kcal is trading around $130 per ton—not far from the lows of early March: subdued purchases from India, which has increased its own production and reserves, offset the rise in demand in Northeast Asia. Japan remains the leader in the increase of coal generation amid the reduction in gas generation, and South Korea has sharply increased its imports. Industry estimates for additional demand in the Asia-Pacific region in 2026 are around 70 million tons, with potential escalation to 90 million. It is notable that major mining companies are not sanctioning new projects: the market reads the surge as cyclical rather than structural.
Electricity and Renewables: Demand Growing Faster than Supply
The energy shock has not slowed but accelerated the energy transition. Global electricity demand is forecasted to grow by 3.6% in 2026 and another 3.8% in 2027, while renewable generation will surpass coal generation globally for the first time in history; the share of renewables in global output is moving from 33% to 37%. The drivers remain unchanged: industry, electric transport, air conditioning, and data centers.
The last factor has ceased to be an abstraction. The recently announced 25-year contract between OpenAI and Georgia Power entails the delivery of up to 3.2 GW for a data center in Georgia with commissioning slated for 2028-2032, with investments starting at $20 billion and an option for managed load reduction to 1 GW. This stands as one of the largest individual capacity commitments in the history of American technological infrastructure and visibly illustrates why electricity is becoming an independent asset class alongside oil and gas.
What This Means for Investors and Participants in the Fuel and Energy Market
- Hedging is essential. Movements of 4-7% per session make unhedged positions in oil, gas, and oil products a source of unacceptable risk.
- Refining margins under pressure from both sides. Expensive raw materials combined with administrative export restrictions and retail prices compress refinery crack spreads.
- Logistics matter more than geology. The Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, and Novorossiysk have shown that the price of a barrel is determined by the passability of bottlenecks.
- Premium for predictability. Coal, nuclear, and assets with long contract horizons are being revalued upwards.
- Winter risks in Europe are not abated. The lag in filling underground storage creates the potential for a new spike in TTF in the fourth quarter.
The calendar for the upcoming week presents four benchmarks: OPEC+ meeting on August 2, statistics on the filling of European storage facilities, progress in negotiations regarding shipping regimes in the Hormuz, and the quarterly reporting block of major oil and gas companies. Any of these events can shift prices by $5-10 per barrel in a single session. The baseline scenario for oil, gas, and energy in the coming months foresees sustained heightened volatility at least until the end of the third quarter of 2026.
