Global Oil and Gas Industry and Energy News as of January 6, 2026: Oil and Gas, Renewable Energy Sources, Coal, Electricity, Refineries, Raw Material Markets, and Key Trends in the Global Fuel and Energy Complex for Investors and Market Participants.
Key Trends in the Global Energy Market
The year 2025 concluded for the global fuel and energy complex (FEC) amidst conflicting factors: oil prices fell by nearly 20% throughout the year due to concerns of oversupply, while persistent geopolitical tensions sustained demand for "safe" assets. This combination of factors creates an ambiguous backdrop for market participants and investors, prompting them to closely monitor the evolving situation. Experts believe that a surplus in the oil market may develop in 2026, exerting downward pressure on prices. However, local factors — such as ongoing Western sanctions (including the EU embargo on oil products from Russia) and production disruptions (resulting from recent attacks on several refinery facilities) — are limiting exports and preventing a price collapse, particularly maintaining high margins for diesel fuel.
Trends in gas markets are changing even more rapidly: Europe is rapidly reducing pipeline gas supplies from Russia (with transit through Ukraine effectively ceasing by the end of 2025) and plans to completely phase out Russian gas by 2028, increasing LNG imports. At the same time, several Asian countries are restructuring supply routes in response to trade discrepancies, reducing purchases of U.S. LNG due to imposed tariffs. Meanwhile, global electricity demand continues to grow quickly — driven by the data center boom, advancements in artificial intelligence technology, and mass electrification of transport and utilities — spurring investments in renewable energy and energy storage systems. Additionally, a relatively mild winter in Europe at the beginning of the heating season helps keep gas prices in check and ensures supply stability, easing potential market volatility.
Oil Market: Prices and Forecasts
- Price Environment: Experts forecast that in 2026, Brent oil will trade in a range of approximately $60–65 per barrel. In the coming months, overall supply is expected to exceed global demand by around 3–4 million barrels per day, leading to an increase in commercial oil inventories.
- OPEC+ Policy: The OPEC+ alliance is refraining from increasing production and is maintaining existing production limits. The total volume of cuts under the agreement is approximately 3.2 million barrels per day (around 3% of global demand).
- Demand: The global economy is demonstrating stable growth overall, leading to further increases in global oil consumption by several hundred thousand barrels per day in 2026. Demand is expanding most actively in Asian and Middle Eastern countries, while U.S. shale oil production is beginning to gradually decline.
- Geopolitics: A possible peaceful resolution to the conflict surrounding Ukraine could sharply shift the balance in the oil market. Lifting sanctions and returning significant volumes of Russian oil to the global market would increase supply and intensify pressure on prices, while continued restrictions would maintain higher levels.
Gas Market: Supplies and Demand
- Pipeline Supplies: Exports of Russian natural gas via pipelines to Europe decreased by more than 40% by the end of 2025 due to the cessation of transit through Ukraine. Considering that the EU aims to fully abandon imports of Russian gas by 2028, only a few alternative supply routes currently remain (primarily through Turkey).
- LNG and Alternatives: European countries are significantly increasing purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the U.S., Qatar, and other countries, compensating for the decline in pipeline supplies. Simultaneously, some Asian countries have reduced imports of U.S. LNG due to imposed tariffs; demand for liquefied gas in China and India, on the contrary, continues to grow as these economies strive to diversify their fuel sources and bolster energy security.
- Regional Trends: Turkey is investing in the development of gas infrastructure and storage facilities, aiming to enhance its own energy security. In China, demand for natural gas is expected to increase until 2035–2040, reaching approximately 620–650 billion cubic meters per year; this is stimulating further expansion of national gas networks.
Renewable Energy and Electricity
- Electricity Demand: Many countries are experiencing record growth in electricity consumption. In the U.S., annual electricity consumption may exceed 4.2 trillion kWh by 2026, driven by the data center boom, the implementation of artificial intelligence, and active electrification of transport and housing and communal services.
- Renewable Energy Share: The contribution of renewable energy sources to global generation is steadily increasing. According to forecasts, by 2030, the total installed capacity of "green" generation will exceed 4.6 TWh (with around 80% of this volume attributed to solar power plants). In the coming years, a rapid increase in output based on wind and solar energy is expected, driven by government incentives and decreasing cost of technologies.
- Energy Storage: The implementation of energy storage systems (industrial batteries) is rapidly gaining momentum. Chinese companies are leading the way — their export of lithium-ion batteries for stationary storage increased by 75% in 2025. Global investments in storage technologies are also expanding and are projected to exceed $60 billion by the end of the current year.
Coal Sector
- Global Demand: According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global coal consumption reached a record 8.85 billion tons in 2025 (0.5% higher than the previous year) and will gradually begin to decline by the end of the decade. This will be supported by the active growth of capacities in renewable, nuclear, and gas energy, gradually displacing coal from the energy balance.
- Regional Dynamics: In India, demand for coal has decreased due to abnormally heavy rains and record hydroelectric generation, while in the U.S., in contrast, coal usage has increased amidst rising natural gas prices. China, the world's largest coal consumer (with consumption about 30% greater than the combined volume of all other countries), stabilized its consumption in 2025; however, it is expected that by the 2030s, coal's share in China's energy balance will begin to decline.
- Environmental Factors: Governments continue to seek a balance between climate goals and ensuring energy security. Despite strict regulations focused on decarbonization, the coal industry remains an essential part of energy supply in several regions, creating uncertainty for investors and complicating strategic planning in the energy sector.
Refining and Oil Products
- Diesel Fuel Shortage: In 2025, diesel fuel refining margins in Europe increased by approximately 30%, despite falling oil prices. This situation is due to attacks on Ukrainian refineries and the EU embargo on oil products from Russian oil. Limited supplies of diesel fractions are supporting high price spreads for oil products.
- New Capacities: The launch of large new refineries in developed countries is not expected in the coming years, leading to a structural deficit in the oil products market. Many analysts believe that exceptionally high refining margins will be maintained until additional refining capacities become available.
- Venezuela: The oil company PDVSA is forced to accumulate heavy oil residues in tanks as U.S. sanctions continue to limit the export of Venezuelan fuel oil and other fuels. This exacerbates the shortage of marine (bunker) fuel in the global market, particularly affecting countries dependent on supplies from Venezuela.
Corporate Events and Projects
- Contracts and Investments: Major oil and gas companies continue to enter into large-scale agreements for project development. For instance, Italian company Saipem received a $425 million contract for the development of the Sakarya gas field in Turkey. The British independent company Harbour Energy became the operator of the Zama oil field in Mexico (with a resource base of around 750 million barrels) and simultaneously concluded deals worth $3.2 billion for project development in the Gulf of Mexico, significantly strengthening its position in the region.
- Mergers and Acquisitions: In December 2025, Harbour Energy acquired a 32% stake in the Zama project and secured control over the assets of LLOG in the Gulf of Mexico. These transactions allowed Harbour to become the operator of two of the largest independent oil and gas projects in the area.
- Sanctions and Licenses: Regulatory authorities continue to impact the industry. In Serbia, the oil refinery of NIS (controlled by Gazprom Neft) received a temporary license from OFAC allowing it to maintain operational activities until January 23, 2026. This step enabled the restart of the enterprise following a forced halt due to U.S. sanctions; however, the future of the license remains uncertain.
Financial and Market Indicators
- Stock Trends: The dynamics of stock indices for energy sector companies generally reflect the situation in raw material markets. At the end of 2025, key stock indices in the Middle East declined following the drop in oil prices (for example, the main index of Saudi Arabia fell by approximately 1%), while shares of the largest global oil and gas corporations demonstrated moderate declines.
- Monetary Policy: Central bank decisions have a direct impact on the investment climate. For instance, in Egypt, a reduction in the base interest rate by 100 basis points at year-end triggered a growth in the national stock index by approximately 0.9%, stimulating domestic demand. Similar monetary easing measures are being discussed in other emerging economies, which could create more favorable conditions for companies in the fuel and energy sector in the future.
