Economic Events and Corporate Reports - Monday, January 5, 2026 PMI, ISM US, Inflation Turkey

Detailed Review of Economic Events and Corporate Reporting on January 5, 2026. Japan PMI, China Caixin PMI, Turkey CPI inflation, and ISM manufacturing index in the USA, as well as the absence of major corporate reports in the USA, Europe, Asia, and Russia.

Monday marks the beginning of the new year in global markets with a series of important macroeconomic publications. In Asia, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures for Japan and China will set the tone for the region's industrial and service sectors. In Europe, attention will be focused on the inflation rate in Turkey and investor sentiment in the Eurozone, while in the USA, the key indicator of the day will be the ISM manufacturing activity index for December. The corporate agenda for January 5 is relatively calm: the earnings season for Q4 2025 has yet to begin, and no major announcements from companies in the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, or MOEX are anticipated. Investors will need to piece together the economic signals received—ranging from Asian demand and commodity prices to interest rate expectations from the Fed—to gauge the overall market sentiment at the start of 2026.

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

1. 03:30 — Japan: Manufacturing PMI (December, final).
2. 04:45 — China: Caixin PMI service and composite indices (December).
3. 10:00 — Turkey: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December (year-on-year inflation).
4. 11:30 — Eurozone: Sentix investor confidence index (January).
5. 17:45 — USA: Final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December).
6. 18:00 — USA: ISM manufacturing business activity index (December).

Asia: PMI in Japan and China

Business activity in Asia starts the year with the release of PMI data for December. The final Japan Manufacturing PMI, according to preliminary data, remains below the critical 50-point threshold (November: ~48.7; December flash: ~49.7), indicating ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector, albeit at a more moderate pace than the previous month. This reflects the continued weakness in external demand for Japanese exports, despite signs of stabilization in domestic consumption.

• Japanese Manufacturing PMI – values below 50 indicate a reduction in output. A PMI closer to 50 suggests a weakening of the downturn and may support shares in Japan's industrial companies and related markets.
• Chinese Caixin PMI services – expected to be just above 50 (previously around 52), indicating continued growth in China's services sector. A deceleration in the indicator compared to the previous month (52.6 in November) may reflect consumer caution, while stable readings will bolster optimism regarding demand in China. The composite PMI for China will combine trends from manufacturing and services, providing a comprehensive picture of the economy.

PMI data from Asia will signal to investors how the largest economies in the region are closing the year: improved figures could support commodity markets and currencies of emerging markets, while negative surprises would heighten concerns about slowing global demand.

Turkey: CPI Inflation Dynamics

The year-on-year inflation in Turkey for December will be one of the key indicators of the day for EM markets. The consumer price index is expected to grow at a slower pace, around 30-32% y/y (down from ~31% in November), marking the lowest level in recent years. This slowdown is linked to the tightening of monetary policy by the new leadership of the Central Bank of Turkey in the second half of 2025.

• Slowing CPI – the continued decline in inflation will confirm the effectiveness of the recent sharp interest rate hikes (the CBRT rate was raised to double-digit values). Easing price pressure will strengthen expectations that the regulator might move towards a more accommodative policy in 2026, which is favorable for both bonds and stocks in Turkey.
• Inflation Structure – investors will look into which components contribute to the disinflation process. A slowdown in food and energy price growth will alleviate socio-economic pressure, while a decrease in core inflation (excluding volatile components) will indicate sustainable improvement.
• Market Reaction – particular attention will be paid to the Turkish lira exchange rate and the banking sector. Moderate CPI data may strengthen the lira and support valuations of Turkish banks and companies (on expectations of lowered rates), while an unexpected surge in inflation could trigger sell-offs in Turkish assets due to fears of further tightening policies.

Europe: Sentix and Investor Sentiment

In Europe, there are few major macroeconomic releases on Monday; however, the Sentix investor confidence index for the Eurozone for January will be released. This leading indicator reflects financial participants' sentiment regarding the Eurozone economy. Last month, the Sentix value was −6.2 (amid declining energy prices and hopes for a soft economic landing).

• Sentix Expectations – predictions suggest a slight improvement in sentiment, with the index possibly rising to around −5…−4. Although the reading remains in negative territory (indicating a predominance of pessimists), its rise signals a partial recovery in investor confidence regarding the stability of the Eurozone economy.
• Impact on EU Markets – a moderately positive Sentix may support European equity indices (Euro Stoxx 50 and national indices) at the start of the year, particularly in cyclical sectors (banks, industry). Conversely, a weak index would reinforce defensive sentiment, increasing interest in German bonds and resilient "defensive" stocks.

Overall, Sentix will set the tone before the release of more significant data in Europe later in the week (including preliminary inflation estimates from key countries). CIS investors focused on the European market will view Sentix as a barometer for the overall market atmosphere in the EU.

USA: ISM Index and Manufacturing Sector

In the USA, the ISM manufacturing activity index for December will be published, marking one of the first significant indicators of the US economy's state in the new year. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing PMI is anticipated in the range of 47-49 points (November: 48.2), which would likely continue to indicate a contraction in the manufacturing sector (values below 50 signify a decline). Nonetheless, markets will look for signs of a change in dynamics within the report—potentially nearing a turning point or deepening the downturn.

• New Orders and Production – key components of ISM. In the previous month, the new orders index was significantly below 50, reflecting weak demand for goods. If December shows an increase in new orders closer to 50, it will be the first sign of industrial revival. Conversely, a decrease will indicate the continued soft demand, particularly from exports.
• Prices and Inventories – the prices paid sub-index will show how producer costs are behaving. A slowdown in raw material and component price growth indicates a tapering of inflationary pressures in manufacturing, which is positive for companies' margins. Data on inventories and backlogs will provide insight into whether companies are cutting production in anticipation of a demand recovery.
• US Market Reaction – for investors, the ISM index will serve as an indicator of sentiment in the industrial sector, which may impact Wall Street index dynamics. A stronger-than-expected PMI (closer to 50) could support cyclical stocks (industrials, materials) while raising Treasury yields (amid dampened expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts). However, if the index disappoints and falls deeper, it may intensify discussions around potential stimulus or rate cuts—potentially weakening the US dollar and increasing gold prices in anticipation of looser policies.

It is worth noting that alongside the ISM, the final value of the S&P Global PMI USA for December (manufacturing) will also be released; however, it has less impact as preliminary figures are already known. Investors will primarily focus on the ISM report and the subsequent market reaction—from the S&P 500 to US Treasury yields.

Corporate Reporting: Before Market Open (BMO, USA and Asia)

• Absence of Major Quarterly Reports: No companies listed in major indices (S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX) will issue financial reports on January 5. The Q4 2025 earnings season has yet to commence, prompting investors to shift their attention temporarily to macroeconomic data.
• US Automakers – data on car sales for December and the entire year of 2025 is expected from leading automakers (General Motors, Ford, Stellantis, etc.). These figures are not traditional earnings reports but will provide insights into demand in the US automotive market at the end of the year, particularly for electric vehicles. Strong holiday sales may support stocks in the automotive sector.
• Chinese EV Manufacturers – major Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers (NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto) typically disclose delivery data for December in early January. High sales growth rates for EVs in China at year-end will underscore sustained demand for EVs and could positively impact the stocks of these companies on the exchange (as well as related markets, such as battery manufacturers).
• Hon Hai Precision (Foxconn) – the Taiwanese tech giant and key electronics manufacturer (iPhone assembler) publishes monthly revenue data. The report for December is expected on January 5; investors will examine how robust revenue growth has been year-on-year during the holiday season. Hon Hai's figures act as a barometer of global demand for electronics and gadgets: strong December sales will indicate a successful season for electronics manufacturers, while weak data could temporarily cool appetite for stocks in that sector.

Corporate Reporting: After Market Close (AMC, USA)

• After the US stock exchanges close on January 5, no financial reports from major public companies in the USA are scheduled. Investors are taking this pause before the earnings season kicks off to analyze macroeconomic signals and prepare for the influx of corporate news, which will intensify in the second week of January.

Day's Summary: Key Considerations for Investors

• 1) PMI in Asia: The business activity indicators for Japan and China will serve as an early indicator of global industrial health. An improvement in PMI will support commodities and currencies of emerging markets, while weak data will heighten concerns for commodity demand and exports from Asian countries.
• 2) Inflation in Turkey: Continued disinflation (declining CPI) will strengthen confidence in the economic policies of Turkish authorities and could lead to rising prices for Turkish bonds and stocks. However, an unexpected inflation spike might trigger volatility—weakening the lira and causing investors to reassess risks in the Turkish market.
• 3) ISM Manufacturing Index (USA): This report could set the direction for US and global markets. If the ISM exceeds expectations, investors are likely to revise forecasts for interest rates (toward a more hawkish Fed), resulting in rising bond yields and supporting cyclical stocks. In contrast, disappointment in the PMI data may enhance expectations for policy easing—potentially leading to dollar correction and increased interest in defensive assets (gold, bonds).

In conclusion, the first trading Monday of 2026 presents investors with a comprehensive snapshot of economic trends—from Asia to America. The outcomes of these events will determine the level of risk appetite in the markets: balanced, moderately positive data could give the markets a growth impetus at the year's beginning, while negative surprises would lead participants to adopt a more cautious stance, awaiting additional signals from upcoming reports and statistics.