Detailed Review of Economic Events and Corporate Reports on December 23, 2025. The focus is on the preliminary assessment of US GDP for Q3, the minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, key indicators of consumer confidence and industrial activity in the US, as well as reports from individual companies in the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia.
On Tuesday, a significant block of macroeconomic statistics from the US is set to impact the markets, potentially guiding trading directions ahead of the Christmas holidays. Investors are particularly focused on the first official estimate of US GDP for the third quarter of 2025, which was previously delayed due to a pause in the operations of US government institutions. In addition to GDP, several indicators—from durable goods orders and industrial production to the consumer confidence index—will provide a comprehensive view of the state of the US economy at year’s end. In the Asia-Pacific region, market participants will scrutinize the tone of the minutes from the last Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting for hints about future monetary policy. On the corporate front, reporting is quiet; only a few second-tier companies are set to release their earnings in the US, while no significant releases are anticipated in Europe, Asia, or the Russian market on the Moscow Exchange. The combination of these factors will shape investor sentiment, as they weigh macro data against the prospects for Federal Reserve interest rates, dollar dynamics, commodity prices, and overall risk appetite.
Macroeconomic Calendar (Moscow Time)
- 03:30 — Australia: RBA meeting minutes.
- 16:15 — US: ADP Employment Report (weekly).
- 16:30 — US: Durable Goods Orders for October.
- 16:30 — US: Housing Starts for September.
- 16:30 — US: GDP for Q3 2025 (preliminary estimate).
- 17:15 — US: Industrial Production for November.
- 18:00 — US: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (December).
- 18:00 — US: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (December).
- 00:30 (Wed) — US: Weekly Oil Inventories from the API.
US: Q3 GDP and Economic Dynamics
- Preliminary GDP (Q3 2025): The first estimate of US economic growth for the third quarter should clarify how strongly the economy finished the year. A robust annual growth rate (around 3-4%) is expected, reflecting recovery from the downturn at the beginning of 2025. Investors will pay special attention to the composition of GDP: stable household consumption and increased business investment confirm economic resilience, while weakness in these areas would signal emerging slowdown. The unusually late publication of GDP (moved to late December due to statistical delays) adds to the intrigue and could trigger increased volatility in the US stock market and Treasury bond market.
- Domestic Demand and Inflation: The components of GDP by expenditure (personal consumption, capital investment) will be evaluated in light of inflationary trends. If GDP growth is accompanied by moderate core inflation, it will support expectations of a "soft landing" and a potential shift towards interest rate cuts by the Fed in the second half of 2026. However, excessively high growth rates might amplify concerns of overheating, leading to tightening Fed policies, which could provoke rising Treasury yields and strengthen the dollar.
- Impact of Foreign Trade and Inventories: Markets will closely monitor the contribution of the external sector and inventory changes to overall GDP dynamics. A significant contribution from exports or a reduction in imports would improve the trade balance, supporting industrial and commodity companies (especially in light of the US dollar's recent weakening). Conversely, a significant increase in inventory levels might signal demand saturation and the risk of production slowdown ahead. It is essential for investors to distinguish between temporary factors and sustainable trends embedded in these components to adjust strategies for early 2026.
US Manufacturing Indicators and Housing Market
- Durable Goods Orders (October): The new orders for durable goods reflect corporate capital expenditures and demand for long-lasting goods (from automobiles to equipment). A slight increase in orders is expected following a decline the previous month, indicating potential recovery in industrial activity in Q4. Special attention will be on the category of core orders (Core Capital Goods), excluding defense and aerospace—steady growth in these orders signals business confidence and investment plans. For the markets, positive dynamics in orders would be a boost for industrial sector stocks and the Dow Jones, while weak data could heighten concerns about stagnation in manufacturing.
- Housing Starts: Data on new housing constructions from September (delayed to December) will provide insights into the state of the US housing market in the context of high mortgage rates. A significant increase in new starts would indicate some adaptation by builders and buyers to expensive loans, supporting shares in development and related sectors. Continued declines in Housing Starts, on the contrary, would confirm that the housing sector remains under pressure—this signal could negatively impact the stock prices of construction companies, building material manufacturers, and indirectly influence the consumer sector through household wealth effects.
- Industrial Production (November): The Fed report on industrial output for November will complement the overall picture of the manufacturing sector's health. In October, the industrial production index grew, driven by the energy sector, and investors expect this trend to continue or at least stabilize. A critical detail will be figures from the manufacturing sector: growth in factory output would indicate rising demand and a reduction in inventory levels, while a decline would raise alarms ahead of the new year. The market’s reaction to this data will be evident in sectoral dynamics of stocks: improved industrial production will support industrial and commodity segments of the S&P 500, whereas weakness may heighten interest in defensive instruments.
US Consumer Confidence and Labor Market
- Consumer Confidence Index (December): The fresh consumer confidence index from the Conference Board will reveal the mood of American households at the year’s end. A slight improvement is predicted after a decline in the fall: traditionally, consumers are more optimistic ahead of the holidays due to discounts and bonuses, yet high inflation and costly credit still temper enthusiasm. If the index surpasses expectations, it would be a positive signal for retail and services sectors (more spending translates to higher revenues). Conversely, a drop in the confidence index could indicate consumer caution and a preference for saving, raising concerns among investors about the economy's prospects at the start of 2026.
- Labor Market: ADP Data and Regional Indicators: The weekly ADP employment report will provide a timely estimate of hiring dynamics in the US private sector. Recent publications indicated a slowdown in job creation—if this trend continues (with new jobs near zero or negative), it would align with the overall picture of cooling in the labor market. On the other hand, consistently positive ADP Weekly figures would suggest persistent employment strength, supporting consumer spending. Additionally, the Richmond Fed manufacturing activity index for December will allow assessment of the regional situation: growth in the index into positive territory indicates an industrial revival in the Southeastern US, while a decline would intensify concerns regarding contraction in the manufacturing sector. Collectively, labor and regional activity data will help refine forecasts for the Fed's decisions at the next meeting, as the central bank considers labor market cooling in policy shifts.
- Market Reaction to Consumer and Labor Data: For the stock markets, balance is crucial: moderate weakening of consumer confidence and hiring may even please investors, as it reduces the likelihood of further interest rate hikes by the Fed. However, overly weak figures could evoke recession fears, affecting shares of cyclical companies (retail, automotive, industrials). Optimistic figures (high consumer confidence, steady hiring) will temporarily support stocks, especially those focused on domestic demand, but may trigger sell-offs in bonds due to fears of economic "overheating." Thus, participants will seek a middle ground in the incoming statistics, responding sectorally depending on the nature of the surprise in the data.
Australia: RBA Minutes and Currency Market
- RBA Rhetoric and Rate Outlook: The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) December meeting will unveil details of the discussion among Australian regulators. While the rate likely remained unchanged at the meeting, the tone of the minutes will reveal the balance of opinions: whether risks of overheating were discussed or if the focus shifted towards slowing inflation and supporting growth. Should the minutes indicate increased concern about GDP and labor market weakness, markets may price in a greater likelihood of an RBA rate cut in 2026. More "hawkish" tones (emphasizing persistently high inflation and a readiness to raise rates if necessary) would surprise the market, potentially strengthening the Australian dollar and driving up Australian bond yields.
- Impact on AUD and Regional Assets: The Australian dollar (AUD) and the local ASX 200 index will react to the contents of the minutes. A dovish RBA protocol (hinting at an extended pause or potential easing) typically weakens the AUD, which is positive for Australia's export-oriented sectors (mining, agriculture). Concurrently, this could support the Australian stock market, as low rates enhance stock valuations. Conversely, if it turns out that RBA members maintain a hawkish stance, the AUD could gain momentum, and Sydney stocks may dip due to the prospect of more expensive credit. Indirectly, signals from the RBA minutes also influence other commodity currencies—New Zealand dollar (NZD) and Canadian dollar (CAD)—setting the tone for currency movements in the Asian session.
- Global Context of Central Banks: Investors from the CIS and Europe will also pay attention to the Australian minutes, even though they are released early in the morning Moscow time. Australia often serves as a "leading indicator" for monetary trends in developed countries, so a softer RBA stance may enhance expectations that other central banks (e.g., Bank of Canada or even the US Fed) will start easing policies around mid-2026. As such, any significant revelations in the document will be considered by global market participants when forming strategies for the next year, particularly in the commodity currency segment and related sectors.
Corporate Earnings: US and Other Markets
- US (NYSE/NASDAQ): On December 23, no notable reports are expected from major US public companies; however, several second-tier enterprises will deliver financial results. Among them is **Limoneira Company (LMNR)**—a California agribusiness holding growing citrus fruits; investors will look to see if the company has managed to reduce losses amidst stabilizing lemon and avocado prices. The restaurant operator **Good Times Restaurants (GTIM)**, which owns regional burger bar chains, will also report—the market will be interested in sales dynamics in existing restaurants and the company's measures to maintain margins amidst rising costs. Another release will come from **Digerati Technologies (DTGI)**, a small tech holding in the cloud infrastructure field: shareholders are keen to learn about the outcomes of a recent business reorganization and the new management's plans to achieve profitability. While the scale of these issuers is limited, their reports could locally influence niche sectors (agriculture, catering, telecom) and serve as an indicator of the health of small and medium enterprises in the US.
- Europe: European exchanges are characterized by an information vacuum on this Tuesday—no companies among the largest in the Euro Stoxx 50 index have scheduled financial results releases for December 23. Ahead of Christmas, business activity in Europe tends to slow down, and investors shift their focus to external factors, primarily US macro data and fluctuations in currency rates. Some minor issuers may release their reports or operational updates (for instance, specific developers or real estate investment trusts in the UK and Germany), but they are unlikely to have a broad impact on the market. European trading venues will likely react to the overall global sentiment shaped by US data and energy price dynamics.
- Asia: In the Asia-Pacific region, the period of mass corporate reporting has already ended, and no significant publications from companies comprising the Nikkei 225 or MSCI Asia Pacific are expected on December 23. Most corporations in Japan reported for the half-year back in November, while major players will only present new financial results after the new year. Chinese and Asian markets will prioritize external signals—specifically US statistics and dynamics of currencies/commodities—on this day. Consequently, the Asian session is expected to progress relatively calmly in terms of corporate events, allowing participants to focus on macroeconomic news and regional political factors.
- Russia (MOEX): The end of December traditionally does not provide Russian equity investors with significant earnings reports. The majority of issuers from the MOEX index have already disclosed results for the first nine months of 2025 in the fall, and annual reports will only appear in 2026. December 23 may bring some corporate news as several companies hold board meetings before the holidays. In particular, some large domestic companies are considering the issue of interim dividends for the past quarters—any announcement regarding dividends (for example, for Q3 2025) could locally move the shares of the respective issuer. Overall, the information backdrop on the Moscow Exchange is calm, and the internal market will look at external markets and oil prices to determine short-term trends.
Other Regions and Indices: Investor Perspective
- Euro Stoxx 50 and European Markets: In the absence of corporate drivers, European investors are likely to focus on macroeconomic factors. Strong data from the US (particularly GDP and consumer confidence) could support the European banking and industrial sectors, signaling continued demand for exports. Simultaneously, any signs suggesting a slowdown in the global economy (if, for instance, US GDP disappoints) would prompt a shift of capital into defensive European assets—bonds, shares of utility companies, and telecoms. The EUR/USD exchange rate is also in focus: continued strengthening of the euro amidst dovish signals from the Fed may weigh on shares of Eurozone exporters, while a stronger dollar would ease the burden on European manufacturers. Overall, Frankfurt, Paris, and London stock exchanges will be influenced by external news on December 23, given the scarce internal news stream.
- Nikkei 225 and Asian Indices: For Japanese and Asian markets, this Tuesday represents more of a pause ahead of year-end. The Nikkei 225 may respond to changes in the yen exchange rate: if US data leads to a stronger dollar, it would benefit Japan's export-oriented corporations (automotive, electronics) and support the Nikkei index. In China's and other Asian markets, investor sentiment will be shaped by a combination of factors: the RBA minutes set the tone for the Australian and regional banking sectors, commodity prices (oil, metals) will influence resource companies, and movements in the US Nasdaq could reflect on technology stocks in Asia. Overall, significant local events are few; thus, Asian indices will serve as a "barometer" of global risk—an increase in risk appetite will lift them, whereas a retreat from risk due to weak data will pull quotes lower.
- Russian Market (MOEX): Domestic indices IMOEX and RTS, under a calm internal news backdrop, will look to global trends and oil price dynamics. Any substantial fluctuations in oil prices related to the API report or expectations of demand will immediately reflect on stocks in the oil and gas sector, which holds a significant weight in the Moscow Exchange index. If Brent crude remains at high levels (e.g., around $80-85 per barrel) due to declining inventories and optimism about demand, it will support Russian blue-chip energy stocks and strengthen the ruble. Conversely, weakness in the commodities market may increase pressure on Russian stocks. Additionally, external signals from the US Fed and ECB (in the context of GDP and inflation data) could influence investor sentiment in Russia via the channel of global risk appetite: an improved external backdrop could boost demand for risk assets, including Russian ones, while rising concerns may prompt players to reduce positions in emerging markets.
Summary of the Day: What Investors Should Pay Attention To
- US GDP and Orders: The key event of the day is the publication of US GDP for Q3 2025. A stronger-than-expected economic growth (above ~4%) could trigger a reassessment of Fed rate forecasts, leading simultaneously to rising bond yields and supporting cyclical stocks. Concurrently, we monitor durable goods orders; their solid growth would confirm the trend of recovering investment activity, while weakness in the figure would heighten concerns for the industrial sector.
- Consumer Sentiment: The December consumer confidence index and related data (retail sales, if available) will indicate direction for companies in the consumer goods and services sector. Investors should assess whether households maintain a willingness to spend amidst high living costs. Any signs of cooling consumer demand will signal caution regarding retail networks, auto dealers, and tourist companies, whereas unexpected optimism could energize their stocks.
- RBA Minutes and Currencies: The morning outcomes of the RBA meeting may set the tone for trades in the currency market on Tuesday. If the minutes are softer than expected, a decline in the AUD and NZD could be anticipated, which will reflect on commodity prices (through cheaper production) and on currency pairs in emerging markets. For global asset investors, the RBA signal serves as further confirmation (or refutation) of the beginning of a policy easing cycle worldwide. It is also crucial to consider the ruble's influence: changes in oil prices and overall risk appetite, shaped by the external events of this day, could sway the ruble, impacting the local debt and equity markets.
- Oil and Commodity Markets: A combination of news today directly affects the commodities segment. The API report late in the evening will provide a preliminary assessment of the US oil market—significant reductions in oil or gasoline inventories will support oil prices, while unexpected increases could lead to downward corrections. Investors in the oil and gas sector should proactively determine target price ranges and potential protective positions, considering that liquidity typically decreases ahead of the Christmas holidays, leading to more pronounced price fluctuations than usual. Attention should also focus on industrial metals: since no data from China will be released today, metal prices will primarily react to US industry figures and overall risk appetite.
- Risk Management Ahead of Holidays: December 23 combines a high density of statistics with the approach of a low-liquidity holiday period. Investors are advised to proceed with caution; volatility may increase due to fewer active participants. It's wise to preset levels for reviewing or hedging positions, employ stop orders to protect profits, and avoid excessive leverage. Wrapping up the trading day and effectively the whole year, it is reasonable to secure results and balance the portfolio to meet the New Year’s holidays without excessive stress and with a well-thought-out plan for January 2026.
