Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for the Week of December 22–26, 2025: LPR Rate in China, GDP and Inflation in the USA, Macroeconomic Data from Europe and Russia, Influence of Christmas and Reduced Trading Sessions on Global Markets.
Weekly Overview for December 22–26, 2025: Key Events and Reports
The upcoming week is characterized by a reduced schedule due to the holidays. However, investors can expect several important events. The focus will be on the People's Bank of China's decision regarding the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), the final estimate of GDP in the USA for Q3, and the PCE Price Index (a key inflation indicator in the USA), as well as Catholic Christmas and a new trade agreement between the EAEU and Indonesia. The corporate earnings season is nearly concluded: there are no major reports anticipated from companies in the USA, Europe, Asia, or Russia, shifting the focus to macroeconomic statistics and geo-economic news. One significant event will be the signing of a free trade agreement between Indonesia and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) – a step that strengthens economic ties between Southeast Asia and post-Soviet countries. Macroeconomic data and central bank decisions may reflect on the dynamics of global stock indices – from the S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 to the Nikkei 225 and the Moscow Exchange index – although market reactions may be muted due to low liquidity during holiday days. Let's take a closer look at the events of each day and their potential impact on market conditions.
Monday, December 22, 2025: LPR Rate in China and UK GDP
At the start of the week, attention is directed towards Asian and European indicators. Early morning will see China announce its decision on the key Loan Prime Rate (LPR), setting the tone for financial conditions in the region. In the UK, final GDP figures for Q3 will be released, providing an assessment of economic growth as the year comes to a close. No significant corporate reports are expected on this day, so market dynamics will depend on macroeconomic news. Additionally, news regarding the signing of the free trade agreement between Indonesia and the EAEU will influence the worldwide agenda, underscoring the intensification of international economic integration.
- 04:15 MSK – China: Decision on LPR (Loan Prime Rate). It is expected that the rate will remain unchanged; any unexpected change could impact the yuan, shares in China's banking sector, and set the tone for Asian markets.
- 10:00 MSK – UK: Q3 2025 GDP (Final Estimate). Preliminary data indicated moderate economic growth; any revision of this figure could reflect on the pound's exchange rate and the dynamics of the FTSE 100.
- 16:30 MSK – USA: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (for November). This indicator reflects the overall dynamics of the US economy; values around zero indicate average growth rates, variations may impact short-term investor sentiment.
- 18:00 MSK – USA: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. A key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve; slowing price growth strengthens expectations of a soft monetary policy, whereas accelerating inflation could raise concerns in the bond and equity markets.
Investor Takeaway: Monday kicks off without major disruptions – there are few economic events, and global markets will likely trade within a narrow range. The decision on the rate in China is expected to confirm the current course of monetary policy without triggering sharp movements in Asian markets. The final UK GDP figure is unlikely to surprise investors, serving as a background indicator for the European market. The PCE inflation index in the USA will be an important benchmark: moderate dynamics will support a positive market sentiment, while an unexpectedly high figure may increase volatility even amidst diminishing pre-holiday activity. The news of the EAEU–Indonesia agreement is strategic in nature and does not have a direct impact on market prices in the short term, yet it highlights the trend toward strengthening trade ties within the Eurasian space.
Tuesday, December 23, 2025: US GDP and Durable Goods Orders
Tuesday will be the most eventful day of the week in terms of macroeconomic statistics, particularly in the USA. Investors will receive a comprehensive block of data concerning the US economy: from the labor market and industry to the final report on economic growth. The focus will be on the final estimate of US GDP for Q3, which will confirm or adjust previous growth estimates, as well as figures on durable goods orders and industrial production that reflect the state of the manufacturing sector. Additionally, the consumer confidence index for December will be released, indicating household sentiment as the holidays approach. Prior to the opening of major trading sessions, the Asia-Pacific region will absorb signals from Australia following the release of the RBA meeting minutes. Since there are still no large corporate reports, macroeconomic releases will determine market movements on Tuesday.
- 03:30 MSK – Australia: Minutes from the last RBA meeting. This document clarifies the regulator's assessment of the economic situation and inflation; any hints at future rate adjustments will impact the Australian dollar and market sentiment in Australia.
- 16:15 MSK – USA: ADP Employment Change (Weekly Metric). An unofficial estimate of labor market dynamics in the USA; stable employment levels will reassure investors, while an increase in claims for benefits or a reduction in jobs could heighten concerns about economic slowdown.
- 16:30 MSK – USA: Durable Goods Orders for November. An important industrial indicator reflecting demand for durable goods (e.g., equipment and machinery). Increases in orders signal business confidence and will support stocks in the industrial sector, while a decline would indicate caution among companies regarding capital expenditures.
- 16:30 MSK – USA: Housing Starts for November. An indicator of activity in the construction sector; an increase in new constructions indicates a healthy real estate market, while declines may be interpreted as signs of a cooling economy or caution among builders.
- 16:30 MSK – USA: Q3 2025 GDP (Final Estimate). Confirmation of steady economic growth in the USA (around +3% year-on-year) is anticipated. Any significant revision of GDP growth rates could alter market sentiment: stronger growth may enhance risk appetite, while any decrease in estimates could raise questions about the durability of the economic upswing.
- 17:15 MSK – USA: Industrial Production for November. The figures will indicate the condition of the industrial sector. Moderate production growth suggests stability, while a decrease in activity may increase concerns about recessionary trends.
- 18:00 MSK – USA: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for December. This measures American consumer sentiment ahead of the holidays: a rise in confidence will support retail stocks and the broader market, while a drop in sentiment may indicate more cautious consumer spending.
- 18:00 MSK – USA: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for December. A regional leading indicator of industrial activity; strong readings will support optimism in the manufacturing sector, while weak figures will indicate specific issues in production.
- 00:30 MSK (already December 24) – USA: Weekly API Oil Inventory Report. Unofficial data from the American Petroleum Institute regarding the changes in crude oil inventories over the past week. A significant drop in stocks could push oil prices up, indicating high demand, while an increase in stocks might exert downward pressure on oil quotations.
Investor Takeaway: On Tuesday, markets will have to process a large volume of economic information. Strong macro figures from the USA (e.g., higher than expected GDP growth or an increase in durable goods orders) could provide the market with new momentum and support the rise of stock indices, reinforcing confidence in economic stability. At the same time, weak data – whether it’s a drop in consumer confidence or declining industrial output – may cause cautiousness among investors and a reallocation of assets to safe havens. The RBA minutes early in the morning will set the tone for the Australian market and commodity currencies, but the main influence of the day will shift towards the US session. Overall, the absence of corporate reports means that macroeconomic surprises will dictate sentiment: positive trends in statistics will bolster risk appetite, while a series of disappointing indicators might prompt profit-taking ahead of the long weekend.
Wednesday, December 24, 2025: Bank of Japan Minutes and Unemployment Claims (Christmas Eve)
On Wednesday, Christmas Eve marks a slowdown in trading activity in global markets. Several exchanges, including Germany, Switzerland, Brazil, and Argentina, will be closed all day, while trading sessions in the USA, UK, Australia, and New Zealand will be shortened. However, the reports released that day could locally influence dynamics: early in the morning, the Bank of Japan will publish minutes from its last meeting, providing insight into the regulator's sentiment, while during the US trading day, investors will follow weekly US unemployment statistics and oil inventory data. Additionally, important economic indicators for November are expected to be released in Russia. In a thin market, any reactions to news may be amplified by low liquidity, though significant movements are unlikely due to the proximity of holiday.
- 02:50 MSK – Japan: Bank of Japan Minutes. The document will reveal details of discussions on monetary policy. Investors are seeking hints about potential changes to the BoJ's ultra-loose policy; any signals regarding policy adjustments could impact the yen's exchange rate and the dynamics of the Nikkei 225.
- 16:30 MSK – USA: Initial Jobless Claims (Week Ending December 20). This weekly measure of the US labor market, published a day earlier than usual due to the holiday, indicates labor market stability; persistently low claims would confirm employment resilience and bolster confidence in the economy, while a rise could raise concerns over market cooling.
- 18:30 MSK – USA: EIA Oil Inventory Data. Weekly statistics from the Energy Information Administration regarding commercial oil and petroleum product inventories. A sharp decrease in stocks would strengthen oil prices, signaling high demand or reduced supply, while an increase could weaken the oil market. Volatility in energy markets is possible, although many traders may have left the markets ahead of the holiday.
- 19:00 MSK – Russia: Industrial Production for November. This indicator reflects production output in Russian industry. Accelerating growth in industrial production will indicate economic recovery towards year-end, while weak results may heighten expectations for government and Central Bank of Russia stimulus measures.
- 19:00 MSK – Russia: Consumer Inflation for November (CPI). The publication of the inflation rate in Russia for the month; price dynamics are crucial for understanding the monetary policy direction of the Central Bank of Russia. Slowing inflation will bolster expectations for policy easing (or maintaining rates), while an unexpected rise in prices may trigger discussions about the need for more stringent measures to curb inflationary pressure.
Investor Takeaway: Wednesday is characterized by reduced activity and preparation for the holiday break, though several signals will still reach the markets. The Bank of Japan's minutes may impact trading in Asia: any hints regarding policy changes could markedly shift the yen’s exchange rate and stocks of Japanese companies, although the BoJ is typically cautious. In the USA, unemployment and oil data will provide fresh insights into the economy's health: a sharp deterioration in indicators could unsettle market participants, yet considering the pre-holiday sentiment, most investors are likely to overlook minor fluctuations on this day. Russian statistical releases are important locally – they will help assess the health of the Russian economy at year’s end, but their influence on global markets is minimal. Overall, investors are advised to exercise caution: in a thin market, even minor news may trigger disproportionate price movements, so the main strategy for the day will be to wait until the Christmas holidays conclude.
Thursday, December 25, 2025: Catholic Christmas (Global Markets Closed)
Thursday marks Catholic Christmas, and the vast majority of global financial markets are closed. US exchanges, as well as those in Europe (including the UK, Germany, France, and others), as well as several markets in Asia and Latin America are closed due to the holiday. There are no trading sessions in currency, equity, or commodity markets; the publication of economic data and corporate reports is not scheduled for this day. Investors worldwide are taking a break, and trading activity has plunged to zero.
Investor Takeaway: The complete halt to trading on December 25 means there are no market movements or news. This day offers investors an opportunity to step back from market conditions and reassess their investment strategies outside of market tumult. It is recommended that no actions be taken – all key decisions should be postponed until markets resume operation. The Christmas break traditionally serves as a time of low volatility, so there will be no changes in portfolios on this day.
Friday, December 26, 2025: Boxing Day – Holiday in Europe, Calm Markets
On Friday, global markets gradually return to activity following Christmas, though in some countries it remains a holiday. December 26 is Boxing Day in the UK, Commonwealth countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, South Africa, and others), and many European nations, where exchanges are closed. The American markets and exchanges in some Asian countries operate as usual, but overall activity remains subdued. No new significant macroeconomic publications or corporate events are scheduled, and investors in open jurisdictions will trade based on previously received information. Given the reduced number of participants, minor price fluctuations are possible; however, without strong fundamental drivers.
Investor Takeaway: The final day of the week passes relatively calmly and inertly. The reduction in active markets leads to low trading volumes and neutral dynamics in major indices. In the USA, where markets are open, there could be only local movements influenced by previously released data – for example, investors might continue to react to the GDP or consumer confidence figures published on Tuesday. However, overall, Friday’s session is characterized as technical: major players have already locked in results ahead of the holidays, and few are inclined to open new positions. Investors should pay attention to maintaining portfolio balance before the end of the year: this current pause is a convenient moment to assess the year's outcomes and prepare for January's volatility. After the holidays, global markets will enter the last week of the year, where movements may arise amid year-end book-closing activities; thus, the calmness of December 26 may be seen as "the calm before the storm" in anticipation of the final days of 2025.
