Upcoming IPOs in Russia and the World: Monitoring, Roadshows, and Market Expectations
An initial public offering (IPO) is a financial theater where every action is meticulously planned, yet the outcome remains uncertain. Currently, the IPO market is undergoing a transformation. Thousands of companies worldwide are considering going public, but the reality often differs from expectations. In 2024-2025, investors, analysts, and the issuing companies themselves find themselves in a constant search for answers: when will the next wave of offerings arrive, which companies will truly be ready, and where to find the information to seize attractive opportunities.
Understanding the mechanisms of IPO preparation and execution, the ability to track upcoming placements, and interpreting market signals have become critical skills for investors, financial analysts, and corporate executives. Geopolitical instability, financial market volatility, and macroeconomic uncertainty have made the IPO planning process more complex than ever. While companies in the early 2020s could almost guarantee investors for their offerings, today, every IPO must thoroughly justify its appeal and valuation.
Information Infrastructure: Where to Find Data on Upcoming IPOs
Official Channels of Exchange Operators
Finding reliable information about upcoming initial placements is akin to navigating a labyrinth of official channels, media sources, and paid analytical platforms. Each channel provides part of the picture, and only by combining several sources can an investor gain a comprehensive understanding of the deals in preparation.
Official channels of exchange operators remain the primary source. The Moscow Exchange posts information about listing applications in the "Regulatory and Reference Documents" section of its website. Here, the main parameters are indicated: company name, economic sector, names of placement organizers, expected book-building period, and approximate date of trading start. However, the information is often minimal and serves more for regulatory notification than for investment analysis. The New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ publish similar information through their channels, including detailed calendars of upcoming placements indicating volumes, price ranges, and process status.
Paid Analytical Platforms
Paid analytical platforms such as Bloomberg Terminal, Refinitiv Eikon, and S&P Global Capital IQ offer the most comprehensive information package for professionals. These systems track every stage of IPO preparation: from the initial announcement of intent to the completion of book-building. They include historical data on placements, financial metrics of companies, the composition of the underwriting syndicate, expected timelines, and often even valuation opinions from leading investment banks. However, access to these platforms requires costly subscriptions, making them available primarily to financial institutions and professional investors.
Public Information Sources
For retail investors and analysts, publicly available alternatives exist. Major financial media outlets—Reuters, Bloomberg News, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal—regularly publish news about planned and executed IPOs. In the Russian market, this role is played by RBC, Kommersant, Interfax, which track the Moscow Exchange calendar and provide analytical commentary. Such sources are useful for obtaining an overview but often deliver information with delays and may not always be detailed enough for investment decisions.
Investment Bank Newsletters
Newsletters from investment banks represent an interesting and often overlooked source. Major underwriters (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Deutsche Bank) regularly send updates about placements they are organizing to their clients. These newsletters often contain detailed analytical reviews, historical comparisons, valuation opinions, and forecasts. Access to such emails is available to bank clients, who receive information earlier and often in a more structured format than public information.
Investor Communities and Multi-Layered Monitoring
Specialized communities of investors and financial analysts (e.g., forums on platforms like Seeking Alpha, Reddit communities, local investment clubs) serve as places for sharing information and analysis regarding upcoming IPOs. These sources are less reliable than official channels but often contain deep insights from market participants who have access to paid data and are willing to share their findings.
In practice, experienced investors use a multi-layered approach. They start by checking official exchange calendars, then turn to news agencies for context, consult specialized media for deep analysis, and if they have access, utilize paid platforms for a detailed study of financial metrics and deal parameters. This comprehensive monitoring requires time and resources but provides a complete picture necessary for making informed investment decisions. Many seasoned investors also subscribe to major investment banks' newsletters, gaining insights into upcoming placements before they become public.
Roadshows: The Art of Persuasion and Demand Generation
Structure and Importance of Roadshows
A roadshow, referred to professionally as a roadshow, is one of the most dramatic and psychologically intense stages of preparing a company for an IPO. It is not just a presentation; it is a targeted campaign aimed at generating interest, shaping positive perceptions, and ultimately creating demand for the shares of the upcoming offering.
The structure of a roadshow reflects the geopolitical and economic hierarchy of modern financial markets. The first stage—meetings with institutional investors—is considered the most critical, as these players often determine the success of the entire offering. Large pension funds, insurance companies, hedge funds, and asset management investors are located in the financial centers of the world: New York, London, Hong Kong, Singapore, Dubai, and other major hubs. For Russian IPOs, this process typically begins with meetings in Moscow, then may extend to European and Asian centers, especially if foreign capital is planned to be attracted.
Preparation of Presentation Material
Preparation for the roadshow begins several weeks before the announcement of book-building. Company management works with the consultants from the organizing banks to develop presentation material. A standard presentation, usually comprising 30-50 slides, is created to tell the company's story: its origin, business model, achievements, competitive position, market opportunities, and critically, the justification of the proposed valuation. The slides are meticulously tested—what message they convey, what questions may arise, and how to present the information most effectively.
The Process of Meetings and Interaction with Investors
Meetings typically involve the CEO and CFO of the company, and sometimes also the COO and other key managers. The logic behind this composition is simple: the CEO tells the company's story and vision, while the CFO delves into financial metrics and details. Meetings are often held in investors' offices or in specially booked meeting rooms in hotels. Each meeting usually lasts 45-60 minutes: 20-30 minutes for the presentation, the remaining time for questions and discussion.
The questions posed by investors often become more critical and challenging as the roadshow progresses. Initial meetings are usually more friendly, but as information about the company circulates among investors, they begin to focus on potential weaknesses. Investors inquire about the company's real market share, its key competitors, the protection of competitive advantages, growth rates in various segments, how the company plans to use the capital raised, key risks to the business, and management practices.
Quality of the Presentation and Its Impact
The quality of responses to these questions often determines the success of the roadshow. Management that is well-prepared and capable of critically discussing the company's issues without attempting to hide problems often leaves a positive impression. Conversely, management that avoids difficult questions, provides vague answers, or appears ill-informed may significantly undermine investor interest in the offering.
Retail Roadshows and Geography of Meetings
The second phase of the roadshow—meetings with retail investors—usually occurs concurrently with meetings with institutional investors but may be timed differently. Retail roadshows are often conducted in the form of webinars (especially since the pandemic), which are more extensive and allow reaching a larger number of investors. The presentation is often simplified—deep financial details are avoided, focusing on ease of understanding and attractiveness of the business idea.
During the meetings, investors often receive brochures (pitchbooks), which contain key information: the company's history, main financial metrics, market analysis, and intended use of the raised capital. These materials are developed by banking experts and often serve as the basis for deciding to participate in the IPO.
The geography of the roadshow plays a critical role in the success of the placement. A large international IPO can cover up to 15 cities in 2-3 weeks. For Russian IPOs, if the company plans to attract only Russian capital, meetings are often limited to Moscow and a few major regional centers. However, if the goal is to attract foreign investments, the roadshow may include tours across Europe and Asia.
Duration and Impact on Demand
The duration and intensity of the roadshow depend on the size and complexity of the deal. Smaller IPOs of $100-200 million can be prepared through a series of conference calls and a few personal meetings. Large offerings, especially international ones, require a full series of events across various countries. During an intensive roadshow, company management is under constant stress—having to repeat the same presentation dozens of times, respond to critical questions, and maintain enthusiasm and faith in the company amidst fatigue.
The influence of the roadshow on book-building results is enormous. Data show that the majority of demand for the placement is generated during the roadshow, following meetings between investors and the company's management. If the roadshow is successful, the management makes a positive impression and convinces investors of the company's attractiveness, then book-building typically shows strong demand, multiple oversubscriptions, and potential for price increases. Conversely, an unsuccessful roadshow often leads to weak demand, forcing companies to lower prices or even cancel the placement.
Market Expectations Dynamics: From Euphoria to Caution
Macroeconomic Factors
Market expectations regarding future IPO activity have a life of their own, often reflecting not so much the actual state of companies preparing for placements, but the general psychological state of investors and the global economic climate. These expectations are shaped by a multitude of factors, some of which have clear economic rationale, while others reflect more irrational fears and hopes.
The macroeconomic environment creates the backdrop for forming expectations. The level of interest rates set by central banks directly affects the attractiveness of investments in growing companies and IPOs. When interest rates are low and investors can receive only modest returns from risk-free assets (bonds, bank deposits), they are willing to take greater risks by investing in emerging companies. This creates a favorable environment for IPOs—companies achieve higher valuations, and investors eagerly participate in offerings. Conversely, when central banks raise rates to combat inflation, and attractive income from bonds becomes available, investors begin to shift from risky assets to more conservative ones. IPO activity decreases as both companies and investors await a clearer picture.
Volatility and Sector Trends
Stock market volatility serves as an indicator of the level of uncertainty and fear among investors. High volatility often means that the market oscillates between hope and fear, and in such an environment, investors are less inclined to participate in IPOs of young companies with high uncertainty. Calm markets with upward trends, on the other hand, contribute to a revival in IPO activity.
Sector trends play a key role in shaping specific expectations. In 2017-2018, investors were obsessed with blockchain and cryptocurrencies, and companies even remotely related to these technologies could attract huge sums through IPOs with almost mind-boggling valuations. Attention then shifted to cloud computing, and then to AI. Every time a new hot topic emerges, companies within that sector receive favorable conditions for placement. However, periods of revival are usually followed by periods of cooling off, when it becomes clear that many companies were overvalued, and the market begins to demand more stringent alignment between valuation and actual results.
Geopolitical Factors and Historical Cycles
Geopolitical factors increasingly influence expectations. Sanctions, trade wars, and international conflicts create uncertainty and often lead to postponement or cancellation of planned IPOs. After sanctions were imposed on Russia in 2022, most Russian IPOs scheduled for international exchanges were canceled. Companies and investors have rethought their strategies in the context of this new reality.
Historical cycles show that the IPO market follows patterns of boom and bust. The year 2021 was an extraordinary year for IPOs—both in terms of the number of placements and the capital attracted, it set records. However, in 2022-2023, activity fell by 70-80% from peak levels. By 2024-2025, the market is gradually recovering but remains significantly more conservative than in 2021. Investors have become more selective, demanding better justifications for valuations and clear strategies for the use of raised capital.
Analytical Forecasts and Their Significance
Analysts and journalists regularly publish forecasts regarding future IPO market activity for the year or several years ahead. These forecasts often differ radically—some analysts predict a recovery and a return to historically normal levels of activity, while others warn of an extension of the quiet period. Reality usually falls somewhere in between, but the process of forming and debating forecasts is crucial for understanding market expectations. These expectations often turn into self-fulfilling prophecies: if most analysts forecast a market revival, investors become more confident and willing to participate in new offerings, which indeed leads to a revival.
Pricing: From Analysis to Book-Building
Initial Analysis and Range Determination
Determining the fair price for an IPO is one of the most complex and manipulable tasks in the financial industry. The process begins months before the announcement of book-building and requires coordination between the issuing company, placement organizers, financial consultants, and regulators.
Placement organizers start by conducting a detailed analysis of the company: its financial metrics, growth rates, competitive position, and prospects. They then identify comparable companies in the same industry that are already trading publicly and analyze the multiples at which these companies are valued. If comparable companies trade at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20x, and the assessed company possesses similar characteristics, it is logical to assume it should be valued at approximately the same multiple. However, the reality is much more complex.
Analysis of Multiples and Premiums
Differences in growth rates, profitability, management quality, and competitive position justifiably lead to different companies trading at completely different multiples. Companies with high growth rates are often valued at a premium—they trade at higher P/Es than slow-growing counterparts. Companies with strong brands and durable competitive advantages receive their premium. Conversely, companies with high-risk businesses receive discounts—in this case, investors demand lower prices as compensation for the risk.
Based on the analysis of comparables, placement organizers offer the company a preliminary price range. For example, they might say, "Based on our analysis, the fair valuation of your company is in the range of $20-28 per share." This range is usually wider than the final price to allow for maneuvering based on the demand revealed during book-building.
The Role of Book-Building in Pricing
The price range is announced by the company in the so-called "red herring" (preliminary prospectus)—the initial version of the securities prospectus. At this stage, investors begin to conduct their analysis of the company, form their opinion on the fair price, and decide which positions they might take during book-building.
Book-building is the central pricing process during an IPO. Placement organizers contact their large clients—institutional investors—and inquire: how many shares would they be willing to buy at various price points? An investor might state, "At a price of $20, I would like to buy 500,000 shares; at $24, 300,000; at $28, I'm not interested." Based on information from all potential investors, organizers create a demand schedule that shows the total number of shares investors are willing to purchase at each price.
Demand Interpretation and Final Price
If the demand curve shows that even at the minimum price of the range all shares of the offering have been oversubscribed (i.e., demand exceeds supply), this indicates strong market interest in the company. In this case, organizers may suggest the company raise the price range or set the final price at the upper end of the initial range. Conversely, if even at the maximum price the demand covers only part of the shares, it indicates weak interest, and the company will have to lower the price, shrink the offering size, or postpone the IPO.
The dynamics of book-building often reflect not so much the company's actual value but the psychological state of the market at a specific time. During periods of a "hot" market, when investors are willing to aggressively compete for shares of popular IPOs, book-building may show 5-10 times oversubscription, allowing the company to significantly raise the price. Conversely, during "cold" market periods, even quality companies may face weak demand.
The final price is typically announced after the close of book-building, often in the evening or nighttime according to Moscow time (depending on the time zones of participants). The final price may be within the originally announced range, but often goes beyond it. With strong demand, the price can increase by 10-20% above the maximum of the range. With weak demand, the price may be lowered, causing the company to cancel the offering.
Global IPO Markets: Geography of Activity and Recovery
Global Distribution of IPOs by Region
The IPO market in 2024-2025 shows pronounced geographical and sectoral differentiation. North America, which has historically dominated in raised capital, remains the largest market, but its share of the global total is decreasing. Asia, particularly Hong Kong and other financial centers in Southeast Asia, is showing an upward trend. According to analytical agencies, the Asia-Pacific region could potentially surpass North America in 2024 for the number of new offerings, although due to the high average value of American IPOs, the American market remains stronger in terms of capital raised.
Characteristics of the Russian IPO Market
The Moscow Exchange finds itself in a unique situation. After the sanctions of 2022 and the delisting of many Russian companies from Western venues, the Moscow Exchange has become virtually the only option for Russian issuers. This has led to a revival of placement activity in Russia, but within the context of a limited base of foreign investors. Russian IPOs in 2024-2025 mainly attract Russian and Kazakh capital, along with foreign investments from companies and funds not subject to sanctions. This paradoxically has fostered the development of a domestic investment base, as Russian investors have had to pivot from international venues to the Moscow Exchange.
Recovery in Developed Markets
In the U.S., the IPO market is experiencing a recovery following the downturn in 2023. However, this recovery is uneven—technology companies are showing stronger demand than traditional industries. The average size of IPOs remains lower than in 2021—companies prefer to execute more modest offerings than previously. On NASDAQ, traditionally a platform for young tech companies, an interesting shift has occurred in 2024-2025: more "boring" companies in traditional sectors have emerged, reflecting a more conservative approach from investors towards new placements.
Europe, especially London and key continental exchanges, is also showing gradual revival, but the pace of recovery is slower than in the U.S. and Asia. On Euronext, for example, the number of new placements in 2024 remained significantly below historical norms.
Participants Ecosystem: Roles and Interactions
Key Players
Each IPO represents a complex ecosystem wherein dozens of organizations and hundreds of professionals work together towards a single goal: a successful placement. Understanding the roles of each participant helps investors better assess the quality of preparation and the likelihood of successful placement.
The issuer (the company) initiates the process and is the primary "customer" of the entire operation. The board of directors of the issuer makes the decision to proceed with the IPO, hires organizers and consultants, and makes key strategic choices. The company's management is responsible for preparing financial information, participating in the roadshow, and negotiating with investors. The success of the entire offering often depends on how well the management is prepared and how convincingly they can tell the company's story.
Organizers and Syndicate
Placement organizers (lead managers, bookrunners) are typically one, two, or three large investment banks. They lead the entire IPO process: advising the company on the deal structure, coordinating book-building, interacting with regulators, managing the underwriting syndicate, and ensuring the distribution of shares among investors. For their work, they receive a commission, typically ranging from 3-5% of the raised capital. On large placements with several billion dollars in volume, this commission can amount to hundreds of millions of dollars, explaining the fierce competition among banks for the role of organizer.
The underwriting syndicate consists of dozens and even hundreds of investment banks that assist the organizers in placing shares. On large IPOs, the syndicate can include up to 50-100 banks. Each bank in the syndicate commits to sell a certain volume of shares to its clients or market makers, for which it receives a portion of the commission. Syndicate members often offset each other in the open market with shares that they received more than they need and purchase shares they lack, creating a secondary market in the initial days of trading.
Consultants and Regulators
Legal consultants represent the interests of both the issuer and the organizers. The chief legal firm on the side of the issuer prepares the prospectus, interacts with regulators, conducts due diligence, and advises on structural and regulatory issues. The legal firm for the organizers ensures that the deal is structured correctly and complies with all requirements.
Auditors perform an independent review of the company's financial statements. The auditor's opinion represents one of the most critical conditions for investors. If auditors express doubts about the accuracy of the reporting (qualified opinion), this can significantly undermine demand for the offering. The "Big Four" auditing firms (Deloitte, PwC, EY, KPMG) participate in the overwhelming majority of large IPOs worldwide.
Regulators (the Central Bank of Russia for Russian IPOs, the SEC for American ones, the FCA for British, etc.) oversee the process, ensuring compliance with rules and protection of investors' rights. Regulatory approval is critical for conducting the placement. The regulatory approval process can take several months and sometimes becomes a bottleneck in IPO preparation.
Investors and Their Motives
Investors represent various types, each with their own motives and constraints. Large pension funds often seek long-term investments with relatively predictable cash flows and growth potential. Hedge funds may target short-term gains from price volatility in the weeks following an IPO. Mutual funds tend to participate in IPOs that align with their investment mandates regarding sectors and size of companies. Retail investors often join in the hope of a rapid increase in quotes in the initial trading days, although statistics show that many IPOs decline in price in the initial weeks following the offering.
The media and analysts play a significant role in shaping public opinion about the placement. Positive reviews and forecasts can lead to a surge in interest, while critical remarks can dissuade investors. Major publications release detailed reviews and analytics ahead of significant IPOs, assisting investors in forming their own opinions.
Investment Decision Making: Comprehensive Analysis
Macro-Level Analysis
For an investor considering participation in an upcoming IPO, the decision-making process requires analysis on multiple levels simultaneously. At the macro level, it is necessary to assess whether the IPO market is in a favorable phase. Periods of high volatility, low risk appetite, and competing macroeconomic events often poorly suit new company placements. When central banks raise rates, when bonds begin yielding attractive returns, and when recession risks loom, investors often prefer to avoid IPOs of young companies with high uncertainty.
Micro-Level Company Analysis
At the micro level, a detailed analysis of the company itself is essential: financial metrics, business model, competitive position, quality of management. An investor must check whether the company has sustainable competitive advantages or if its market position depends on temporary factors. It is important to assess how fair the price offered at the IPO is in comparison with comparable companies and historical medians for the sector.
Information Search and Monitoring
Keeping track of the calendar of upcoming IPOs, studying available roadshow materials, reading analytical reviews, and interpreting book-building results—all these practices help an investor make more informed decisions. It is especially important to compare the proposed price with independent estimates of fair value, which analysts from investment banks often publish. If the final price turns out significantly higher than analysts' estimates, this may indicate overvaluation.
Price Fairness Assessment
Understanding the demand formation process during book-building and the factors influencing the final price helps an investor evaluate whether they are getting a fair price or overpaying for a hot trend. Historically, IPO markets often overrate "hot" offerings, and investors entering at the first wave often face price declines in the following months. On the other hand, boring, conservative placements often show better long-term results.
Risk Management
Risk management when participating in an IPO is critical. It is advisable not to concentrate too large a portion of a portfolio in one placement, to diversify participation in several IPOs, to avoid using borrowed funds for participation, and to have a clear plan for managing positions after trading begins. Many investors have a specific percentage of return they aim to achieve from an IPO (e.g., 15-20% for the first year) and take profits when that goal is reached, rather than hoping for larger gains that often do not materialize.
Final Wisdom
Successful investing in IPOs requires a balance between caution and boldness, between following macro market trends and in-depth analysis of the specific company. Those investors who can combine these approaches and remain disciplined in their investment decisions often achieve results that surpass market averages. The IPO market remains one of the most interesting and promising segments of the stock markets, but it is also one of the most risky for unprepared participants. This is why a systematic approach to monitoring, analysis, and decision-making in the realm of IPOs can serve as a foundation for long-term success in investing.
