Current News on the Fuel and Energy Complex as of November 2, 2025. Oil and Gas Prices, Renewable Energy Trends, Geopolitical Risks, and Market Forecasts.
Current events in the fuel and energy complex as of November 2, 2025, are unfolding against a backdrop of ongoing geopolitical tension and noticeable positive signals in the markets. The sanctions confrontation between Russia and the West remains severe: the US has imposed new restrictions on the subsidiaries of "Rosneft" and "LUKOIL," with a deadline extending until the end of November, while the European Union is expanding its embargo on Russian LNG. However, optimism in the global markets is fueled by a trade "truce" between the US and China, improving forecasts for global demand for energy resources. Alongside moderately high industrial activity, these factors provide additional support for raw material prices.
Commodity markets are demonstrating relative resilience. After falling to lows, oil prices are returning to a moderate range: Brent crude is trading around $64–66 per barrel, and WTI is approximately $60–62. The balance of supply and demand remains fragile, but excess supply is limiting growth. The gas market is entering winter with record fuel stocks: European underground storage facilities are filled to over 90%, which has lowered spot prices to a comfortable ~€30 per MWh. Overall, the global fuel and energy complex is developing under the influence of mixed trends: on one hand, a persistent surplus of hydrocarbons and, on the other hand, an increasing focus on investments in renewable energy sources and energy efficiency.
The global energy transition is gaining momentum: many countries are recording records in the construction of solar and wind farms, with the share of renewable energy sources in electricity generation steadily increasing. At the same time, traditional sector technologies continue to play a key role in ensuring energy reliability. In Russia, following a recent fuel crisis, measures are being taken to stabilize the domestic market: gasoline and diesel production has been restored to pre-crisis levels, wholesale prices are decreasing, and there are currently no issues with fuel supply to gas stations. Below is a detailed overview of key segments of the fuel and energy complex, including oil, gas, electricity, coal, oil refining, and the fuel market, as well as the main geopolitical and market trends.
Oil Market: Surplus Balance and Ongoing Risks
Global oil prices remain under pressure from fundamental factors, despite short-lived spikes. After a fall in autumn, Brent quotations have stabilized near $64–66 per barrel (below the beginning-of-year levels). The market is still assuming a surplus supply scenario by the end of 2025. Contributing trends include:
- Increase in production amid declining demand. OPEC+ countries are gradually increasing quotas: in November, the alliance officially allowed an additional +137 thousand barrels per day. The US and some other producers (including Brazil and Kazakhstan) have reached record volumes. Meanwhile, the growth of global demand is slowing: the IEA forecasts an increase of approximately +0.7 million barrels per day in 2025 (compared to +2 million in 2023), leading to an accumulation of stocks.
- Trade truce: the agreement between the US and China reduces geopolitical risks and stimulates expectations of rising demand. This provides short-term support to oil prices and may neutralize some negative factors of overproduction.
- Energy conservation and innovations: measures to reduce emissions and the spread of electric vehicles are limiting fuel consumption growth. The transition of the vehicle fleet to EVs and enhancements in industrial energy efficiency are reducing the rate of long-term oil demand growth.
- Sanctions and geopolitical risks: new US restrictions against "Rosneft" and "LUKOIL" are increasing uncertainty in Russian oil exports (a deadline of November 21 has been set for winding up deals). However, actual trade has continued under contracts from previous months: oil flows to Asia (India, Turkey) are still being maintained through intermediaries. Any further tightening of sanctions or force majeure events at production sites could rapidly alter the market balance.
Gas Market: High Stocks and Supply Diversification
The situation in the gas market is favorable for consumers, particularly in Europe. At the beginning of the heating season, EU underground storage facilities are filled to over 90%, which has driven spot gas prices down to around €25–30 per MWh (significantly below the crisis peaks of 2022). The influence of traditional suppliers from Russia and Algeria remains limited, and Europe is strengthening its diversification through LNG.
- Record European stocks: the EU has purposefully restrained gas extraction during the summer and fall, maximizing the filling level of underground storages. The planned target of 90% by November 1 has already been exceeded, providing consumers with confidence ahead of the cold season.
- Increase in LNG supplies: despite sanctions, the US is ramping up LNG exports to Europe and Asia. It is projected that from 2026 to 2029, approximately 70% of European LNG will come from the US (up from 58% currently). The US is building new terminals to compensate for reduced Russian and Algerian flows.
- Reduction of Russian share: the European Union has planned a complete cessation of Russian gas imports starting in January 2026 (considering transitional contracts until 2028) and will impose an embargo on Russian LNG starting in 2027. Russia, on its part, continues supplies under existing contracts, but new deals are complicated by European restrictions.
- Price volatility: with high stocking capacity, the European market is less vulnerable to fluctuations, but severe frosts may once again raise demand and prices. Asian demand for gas remains moderate (a decline in Chinese purchases is expected in 2025), which alleviates the risk of shortages.
Electric Power Sector and Renewables: Investment Boom and System Stability
The global electricity sector is continuing to undergo dynamic changes under the influence of the energy transition. Renewable sources are becoming an increasingly significant factor, yet the largest economies are still ensuring grid reliability through traditional resources and storage systems.
- Record investments in renewables: in 2025, unprecedented capacities are being brought online for solar and wind power plants. IEA analysts predict that solar panels will account for up to 80% of the global generating capacity increase by 2030. In several regions (Europe, North America, China), the share of renewables in the overall energy balance has exceeded 30%.
- Increase in electricity demand: global electricity consumption is growing at an accelerated pace (about +2–3% per year), largely due to the growth of data centers, AI, and the electrification of transport. This stimulates investments in new hydropower plants, nuclear power plants, gas-fired power plants, and, of course, in grids and energy storage systems to smooth out peaks.
- Integration and reliability: the rapid growth of renewable capacities necessitates the modernization of energy grids. The IEA and WEF emphasize the need for significant investments in smart grids and storage solutions (batteries, pumped storage) to ensure system flexibility and prevent outages amid fluctuating generation.
- State programs: many countries are strengthening "green transformation" policies: target levels are set for renewable energy production, and mechanisms are introduced to support "clean" electricity producers. This creates a favorable environment for energy companies focused on investing in renewable technologies.
Coal Industry: Demand in Asia and Gradual Phase-Out in the West
The coal sector worldwide is showing mixed dynamics. On one hand, global coal prices have risen in recent weeks—by the end of October, quotations reached approximately ~$109 per ton (a two-month maximum). On the other hand, annual prices remain significantly below last year's levels. The main changes are related to Asia and the regulatory environment.
- Price stabilization: under pressure from Asian demand, coal prices have increased by about 3–4% over the past month (to ~$108–110/ton). Nevertheless, prices are still about 20–25% lower than October levels in 2024. China and India are gradually reducing purchases amid market saturation, but in the long term, they are planning peak demand around 2030.
- Asian demand: China, India, Japan, and Korea continue to be the largest coal buyers. Even with the rising share of renewables in the energy balance, these countries maintain significant coal generation to ensure grid stability. In contrast, Europe and the US are reducing consumption: the closure of coal-fired power plants and a transition to gas and renewables are decreasing coal's share in Western energy.
- Investment trends: China has announced that it will maintain investments in coal energy in the foreseeable future. Western governments, on the other hand, are encouraging a phase-out of coal-fired power plants (some of the largest coal plants in the US and Europe plan to close ahead of schedule). This is creating a "two-speed" market dynamic.
Oil Refining and Fuel Market: Recovery Post-Crisis
The petroleum market remains balanced. Globally, oil refineries are operating at high capacity to meet autumn demand for gasoline and diesel. A surplus fuel balance is developing in Europe and Asia, while Russia has fully restored its domestic production following the summer of 2025 (refer to Results of the Summer Fuel Crisis in Russia).
- Russian fuel market: after the October shortfall, the Russian government introduced strict export controls and supported refineries, which allowed an increase in gasoline and diesel output. As a result, local shortages have been eliminated, wholesale fuel prices have fallen from peaks, and gas stations have received sufficient fuel ahead of winter.
- Global demand trends: in developed countries, there is moderate growth in gasoline consumption (due to economic recovery and tourism), but industrial demand for petroleum products is restrained by the development of alternative fuels. Investments in sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) are increasing in aviation, while electric and hybrid vehicles are gaining traction in road transport.
- Refinery modernization: as environmental regulations tighten, refineries are adapting their production. In Europe, refineries are increasing the share of low-octane and bio-blends, while in Asia, modernizing capacities to reduce sulfur emissions is underway. This confirms the trend towards "cleaning" petroleum products and transitioning to new fuel types.
- Fuel prices: exchange rates for gasoline and diesel remain in a moderate range: in Europe, ultra-light gasoline costs around $800–820/ton, and diesel fuel is approximately $780–800/ton, which aligns with mid-2025 levels. Domestic fuel prices in Russia have stabilized below the peaks of 2022–23 due to government measures.
Sanctions and Geopolitics: New Restrictions and Workarounds
Political factors continue to exert significant influence on the fuel and energy complex. At the end of October, the US and the European Union imposed new packages of sanctions against Russia targeting the oil and gas sector and financial structures. This is prompting a realignment of supply chains and forcing buyers to seek alternatives.
- US sanctions against "Rosneft" and "LUKOIL": the administration has imposed sanctions on the subsidiaries of the two largest Russian oil companies. They have been given a few more weeks to wind up transactions (the final deadline is November 21), resulting in challenges related to banking operations and payments. Meanwhile, Russia is focusing on mitigating currency risks.
- EU and Russian LNG: the 19th package of EU sanctions includes a ban on the purchase of Russian LNG starting in April 2026 (for short-term contracts) and in January 2027 (for long-term contracts). The European Union is also expanding the list of technologies and financing related to Russia's fuel and energy complex that are prohibited for export. In response, Moscow has introduced countermeasures and is diversifying oil and gas supplies through friendly countries.
- Trade flows: under the pressure of sanctions, major buyers of Russian oil (India, China, Turkey) are increasing purchases through trading firms and mixed deals, trying to circumvent restrictions. Europe is strengthening its procurement of oil and gas from alternative sources (the US, the Middle East, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan), while Russia is developing ties with southern routes, including through Black Sea ports.
- Market impact: the risk of new sanctions and geopolitical conflicts currently remains one of the main drivers of short-term price volatility. However, these risks simultaneously curb a sharp decline in quotations, as participants await the resolution of contract statuses and the assessment of the impact of new restrictions.
Forecasts and Prospects for the Fuel and Energy Complex
By the end of 2025, the fuel and energy complex will adapt to the new market and geopolitical realities. In the coming weeks, the following trends are expected:
- OPEC+ and oil supply: at the meeting on November 2, OPEC+ will again review quotas and, according to analysts, may increase production by another ~137 thousand barrels per day (December quotas). This will support the trend toward gradual supply recovery that began in October.
- Energy carrier demand: international agencies expect moderate growth in oil and gas demand in 2026. The global economy is recovering from last year's shocks, but excess supply and the development of alternative energy sources will limit a sharp price increase.
- Energy transition: the investment boom in renewable energy will continue. Long-term goals for emission reductions and technological innovations (e.g., hydrogen projects, battery technology) will be priorities for funds and governments, while traditional sources will remain the foundation of the balance.
- Energy security and climate: high utilization of underground storage facilities and diversification of supply increases resilience in energy consumption during winter. However, sharp climate fluctuations (an unusually cold winter) or unforeseen disruptions could temporarily alter the situation. Countries continue to build strategic reserves and improve energy grids to avoid crises.
