Top 7 Token Unlocks (December 15–21, 2025) and Their Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market

Analytical Review of Major Token Unlocks for the Week of December 15-21, 2025: Market Impact, Risks for Investors, and Key Metrics of Projects

In the upcoming week from December 15 to 21, 2025, several major projects are planning significant token unlocks, which could impact the dynamics of the entire cryptocurrency market. Among them are Aster, LayerZero, Arbitrum, Vana, Yooldo Games, STBL, and Merlin Chain. Below is an analysis of each case: the date of unlock, the amount of tokens released (in absolute terms and as a share of total supply), the current value of these tokens, and the potential impact of the token unlock on price and liquidity. Such cryptocurrency analytics help to assess risks and prospects, especially for those considering long-term investments in cryptocurrency.

For clarity, let’s compare the key metrics of all seven projects in the following table:

Aster (ASTER)

Aster is a decentralized derivatives exchange offering spot and perpetual trading for cryptocurrency and equity contracts with leverage of up to 1001×. On Wednesday, December 17, 2025, Aster will unlock approximately 78.4 million ASTER (around 0.98% of the total token supply). At the current rate, this is equivalent to ~75 million dollars – adding roughly 3% to the circulating supply of ASTER. Given the project's market capitalization (around several billion dollars), this volume is relatively small. However, if a significant portion of the unlocked coins immediately hits the market, some profit-taking by recipients and a reduction in liquidity on exchanges are possible. Cryptocurrency investors should monitor the behavior of large holders: while the unlock volume is moderate, the Aster market is likely able to absorb it without prolonged price pressure.

LayerZero (ZRO)

LayerZero (ZRO) is a cross-chain interaction protocol ensuring secure data and value transfer between different blockchains. On Saturday, December 20, 2025, the project will unlock approximately 24.68 million ZRO (about 2.47% of the total issuance), with a total value of ~37 million dollars. This is approximately 10% of LayerZero's current market capitalization, representing a significant increase in circulating volume. Such an influx of tokens in a mid-cap project may lead to noticeable volatility: short-term holders may sell new coins, putting downward pressure on the price. However, the schedule for these unlocks was known in advance, and the market has partially accounted for this information in the prices. Importantly, LayerZero tokens are distributed among investors and the team on a schedule – if a significant portion of recipients continues to hold the coins or places them into staking, the impact of the token unlock could be mitigated. Investors should closely observe the movements of these tokens (e.g., transfers to exchanges) in the days following December 20.

Arbitrum (ARB)

Arbitrum (ARB) is one of the leading layer two solutions for Ethereum (based on optimistic rollup), designed to reduce fees and speed up transactions on the network. On Tuesday, December 16, 2025, approximately 92.63 million ARB is expected to be unlocked – about 0.93% of Arbitrum's total token volume, valued at around 19.8 million dollars. This issuance represents only ~2% of ARB's market capitalization, which is relatively small. Since its launch in 2023, Arbitrum has already distributed a significant portion of its tokens through airdrops and gradual distributions to investors; the current phase is a planned unlock for early investors and the team. Since the new coin share is small, the cryptocurrency outlook for this level of issuance is moderate: the ARB market is likely to perceive this event calmly. High liquidity and widespread availability of ARB on exchanges suggest that the cryptocurrency market can absorb the additional supply without issues. However, short-term speculative fluctuations are not excluded – as with any unlock events, market participants should proceed with caution around December 16 and monitor the behavior of large ARB holders.

Vana (VANA)

Vana (VANA) is a layer one blockchain focused on maintaining user control over personal data and its monetization (transforming data into a tokenized asset). According to the plan, on Tuesday, December 16, 2025, the project will release VANA tokens valued at approximately ~17.4 million dollars – about 6.12 million VANA, equivalent to ~5.1% of the total issuance. The new coins will represent about 20% of Vana's current capitalization, indicating a significant increase in circulating tokens. Such a sharp increase in supply may create notable pressure on price, especially if holders of the unlocked tokens decide to liquidate them immediately. On the other hand, some of these tokens may be intended for ecosystem initiatives (such as community rewards or user incentives), which reduces the risk of a one-time sell-off of the total amount on the market. Investors interested in cryptocurrency investments in Vana are encouraged to prepare for increased volatility: a short-term price decline may occur if the demand from new buyers does not keep pace with the supply growth. In such scenarios, it is crucial to assess the project's fundamental indicators – sustained interest in Vana from users and partners may help the price recover after the initial supply shock.

Yooldo Games (ESPORTS)

Yooldo Games (ESPORTS) is a multi-chain Web3 gaming platform where users play games and earn tokens for their activities (play-to-earn), integrating mechanics from traditional and blockchain games. On Friday, December 19, 2025, Yooldo is set to unlock approximately 41.91 million ESPORTS tokens (around 4.7% of the total issuance). Their cumulative value is estimated at approximately 17.2 million dollars, which accounts for about 26% of the current circulating token volume – a significant share. An almost quarter increase in the supply at once may noticeably impact the market price: if new coins flood onto exchanges, a price downturn is likely due to an imbalance between demand and supply. Investors holding ESPORTS have already experienced heightened volatility recently – the Yooldo token has seen double-digit declines in recent days in anticipation of the unlock and related speculations. Future dynamics will depend on how actively the unlocked tokens are sold. If the project team or long-term supporters of Yooldo decide to hold a significant portion of the coins to support the ecosystem, the negative effect may be mitigated. However, cryptocurrency investors should consider the risks: without a proportional influx of new players or investors into the Yooldo platform, such a large expansion of supply may lead to a short-term decrease in the token’s price.

STBL

STBL is a relatively new decentralized stablecoin protocol aiming to combine transparency, yield, and backing by real assets (the "Stablecoin 2.0" concept). The STBL governance token was launched in the fall of 2025, and we are now entering a period of active monthly unlocks. On Tuesday, December 16, 2025, the protocol will release approximately 288.39 million STBL tokens – which is 2.88% of their total maximum supply. At current prices, the unlock volume is estimated at about 16.1 million dollars. It should be emphasized that this is an extraordinarily large increase in supply: it is comparable to ~58% of STBL's current market capitalization at this point. In other words, if there are currently 100 units of value in circulation, another 58 will be added on top. Such a sharp increase in circulation typically leads to strong downward pressure on the token's price, particularly if the unlocked coins become immediately available for sale. However, the STBL team has informed the market in advance about its unlock schedule and goals for using the new tokens. A significant portion of these coins may not be intended for immediate sale but rather for incentivizing liquidity and rewarding ecosystem participants (e.g., stablecoin liquidity providers). Nonetheless, STBL holders should be prepared for bursts of volatility: while the mechanism and cryptocurrency forecast for this protocol undergo market testing, caution is warranted. Monitoring the activity of large addresses (particularly tracking whether new tokens are directed to exchange accounts) will help to assess sentiments and actions of major players in a timely manner.

Merlin Chain (MERL)

Merlin Chain (MERL) is a blockchain project developing Bitcoin-native Layer-2: a second-layer network built atop the Bitcoin blockchain to enhance throughput and integrate smart contracts into the Bitcoin ecosystem. On Friday, December 19, 2025, Merlin Chain will unlock approximately 36.14 million MERL – about 1.72% of the total token supply, roughly equivalent to 16.1 million dollars. This volume of new coins constitutes about 4% of MERL's current capitalization – a relatively small proportion by the standards of the week’s unlocks. For Merlin Chain, this is a scheduled quarterly token distribution to the project’s investors and advisors, occurring against a backdrop of growing network activity (the project is attracting attention as a promising L2 platform for Bitcoin). Despite the moderate share, the sudden appearance of an additional 36 million coins may induce short-term price fluctuations. If some recipients decide to take profits, sales may not be excluded in the days immediately after the unlock, possibly temporarily lowering the MERL price. On the other hand, thanks to the relatively small unlock size and positive expectations surrounding Merlin Chain, the market may absorb these tokens relatively quickly. For investors holding MERL, a rational strategy would be to monitor the order book and market sentiments: if there remains strong interest in the project (especially from institutional partners testing Bitcoin-L2 solutions), the impact of the unlock might be minimal and short-lived.

Summary and Recommendations for Investors

Throughout the week of December 15-21, a total of hundreds of millions of tokens (over half a billion units in sum) will be unlocked across seven different projects. Such events inevitably attract the attention of market participants, as they increase supply and may temporarily lower prices, all else being equal. The final effect depends on the proportion of new tokens relative to those already circulating: large unlocks (like those of STBL or Yooldo) carry a greater risk of a one-time price drop, whereas smaller shares (like those of Arbitrum or Merlin Chain) are generally more easily absorbed by the market. Nevertheless, cryptocurrency forecasts for scheduled unlocks should always consider holder behavior: if token recipients prefer to hold or utilize them within the ecosystem (staking, liquidity, etc.), the negative price impact will be limited.

Cryptocurrency investors are advised to plan their strategies around the dates of significant unlocks in advance. This means:

• Monitoring the token unlock calendar and assessing what share of the total and circulating supply is hitting the market.

• In cases of significant percentages (double digits or higher) – considering hedging or partial profit-taking measures before the event occurs, to avoid being caught in a possible wave of sell-offs.

• Analyzing the fundamental indicators of the project: strong projects with an active user community and a desirable product often endure unlocks without long-term damage, while weak projects may see a supply influx intensifying a downward trend.

• Keeping an eye on on-chain data immediately post-unlock. If significant volumes of new tokens are transferred to exchanges, this signals potential selling pressure; conversely, if tokens remain in wallets or go into staking, the market is likely to perceive this positively.

In conclusion, diversification and disciplined risk management continue to be the best protection for investors. Unlocks are predefined events, and the market often "prices in" their effects in advance. However, reactions are not always predictable: the impact of token unlocks can range from neutral to sharply negative in the short term. Based on our analysis, investors should remain vigilant and use such events as an opportunity to reassess their positions. Thoughtful planning and timely cryptocurrency analytics will help to meet this wave of new tokens well-prepared, maintaining a balance between risks and growth potential in the dynamic cryptocurrency market.