Headline of the Day: Anthropic Prepares for Historic Listing
The central event of the autumn for the venture market remains Anthropic's preparation for its initial public offering. The developer of the Claude model series, which confidentially submitted its S-1 filing with the SEC on June 1, is reportedly conducting meetings with institutional investors and may launch the offering in September or early October. The book runners are Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley, with Nasdaq as the target exchange.
Following its Series H round, the company’s private valuation reached approximately $965 billion, with annual recurring revenue estimated by analysts to be in the range of $47–80 billion—largely due to its dominance in the AI coding segment. For the venture industry, this listing will not simply be an exit: the multiple that the public market assigns to Anthropic will become a baseline benchmark for valuing all private AI companies for years to come.
OpenAI Shifts Focus: The Lab Race Moves to 2027
The main competitor, OpenAI, submitted its own S-1 filing a week later but is leaning towards postponing its listing to 2027. The reasons include market volatility and the management's intention to go public at a valuation of no less than $1 trillion. Over the past year, Anthropic has surpassed its rival in both revenue and private valuation for the first time, while OpenAI has undergone a series of executive reshuffles. For investors, this means that the public “AI premium” will be calibrated based on Anthropic’s debut, whereas OpenAI will enter the market already equipped with several quarters of audited financial reports.
Record Capital Concentration: Mid-Year Figures
The statistics for 2026 are rewriting the entire history of the venture industry. Key indicators are as follows:
- Global venture investments reached $300 billion in the first quarter alone—an absolute record, comparable to 70% of total investments in 2025;
- Investments in startups in the US and Canada totaled $392 billion in the first half of the year;
- Four out of the five largest venture rounds in history were closed in 2026: OpenAI ($122 billion), Anthropic ($30 billion), xAI ($20 billion), and Waymo ($16 billion);
- Capital is increasingly concentrated among a narrower circle of companies—the growth is driven by giant rounds rather than an increase in the number of deals.
The market has assumed a pronounced “barbell” structure: elite startups attract mega rounds, strong early-stage teams receive funding quickly and at high valuations, while the mid-segment experiences a scarcity of investor attention.
IPO Window Open: An Autumn Sprint Post-Labor Day
The IPO market is experiencing its best period in several years: by the end of May, over $34 billion had been raised through IPOs—164% more than the previous year. Following the successful debut of SpaceX and a strong year for biotech, investors anticipate a crowded autumn calendar. A noteworthy example is the defense segment: shares of AI-drone manufacturer Swarmer surged by more than 500% on their first day of trading. For venture funds, the open exit window means an opportunity to lock in profits and return capital to partners—a critically important factor after several years of accumulated “overhang” from mature portfolio companies.
Defense Technologies: From Niche Betting to a Systemic Sector
The defense segment has firmly established itself as the second most significant direction in the venture market after AI. Key events from recent weeks include:
- Anduril Industries is negotiating a new round at a valuation of around $100 billion—more than three times higher than last year’s level; the company’s revenue doubled in 2025 to $2.2 billion.
- European leader Helsing attracted $1.8 billion at a valuation of $18 billion—investor demand significantly exceeded the available allocation.
- Global investments in defense and dual-use technologies are ahead of schedule and could exceed $18 billion by the end of the year.
The priority for 2026 is not invention but scaling production: investors are increasingly financing manufacturing capabilities rather than just software platforms.
Deals of the Week: From Generative 3D to Space Launches
The first days of September brought a series of significant rounds reflecting the industry’s capital diversification:
- Tripo AI, a developer of generative AI 3D models from San Francisco, closed Series B and B+ rounds totaling approximately $446 million with participation from a broad pool of Asian and American funds;
- Félix from Miami announced a Series C funding round of $200 million with a significant debt component—signaling the growing role of hybrid capital structures;
- German space startup HyImpulse raised over €50 million in an expanded Series A round with an order book exceeding €350 million;
- Spanish biotech iPremom secured €15 million in seed investments for its early diagnostics platform for pregnancy complications;
- Tokyo-based PeopleX closed a Series A funding at ¥5.45 billion, developing a sovereign AI platform for HR processes.
Beyond AI: Capital Seeking the “Physical World”
A notable trend in recent months has been the shift of some venture capital into tangible assets: sports clubs, iconic real estate, consumer goods manufacturing, and energy for data centers. Investors are diversifying their bets, unwilling to become overly dependent on the dynamics of AI valuations. Sustainable interest remains strong in climate tech, longevity biotech, robotics, and fintech—segments where the next generation of unicorns is forming, characterized by more predictable unit economics.
Russia and the CIS: Transformation Amidst a Global Boom
The Russian venture market is moving in counterphase to the global trend: the volume of deals has declined by approximately 40%, large late-stage rounds have nearly disappeared, and seed investments have decreased by a third in both volume and number of deals. Investors have definitively shifted from financing “promising ideas” to stringent requirements on revenue and clear financial models. Projects in the fields of AI, corporate software, and fintech are prioritized; however, experts warn of a “demographic gap” in startups that will become evident in 2027–2028 due to the depletion of companies ready for acquisition.
What This Means for Investors: Conclusions and Forecasts
The venture market enters autumn 2026 with a state of record activity, but also record concentration of risks. Anthropic's debut will set a public benchmark for the entire AI economy: a successful offering is capable of opening the floodgates for dozens of listings in 2027, while a weak start could trigger a reevaluation of the entire private AI portfolio. For funds, key indicators remain discipline in valuations, diversification beyond the AI core, attention to defense and infrastructure assets, as well as readiness to utilize the open IPO window for exits. The market rewards not flashy ideas, but proven revenue, cost control, and clear positioning—and it is this logic that will define capital allocation in the year’s final quarter.
