The main intrigue of the week is the preparation for Anthropic's IPO. The company's Chief Financial Officer has begun preliminary meetings with institutional investors, while the market is discussing a potential valuation of around $2 trillion for a listing on Nasdaq as early as October. Concurrently, capital is actively flowing into "hard" technologies: defense startups, nuclear energy, energy storage, and AI infrastructure. Below are key events and trends shaping the agenda of the venture market as of Saturday, August 15, 2026.
- Anthropic's IPO is nearing the finish line. Preliminary meetings with investors, a target listing in October, and a predicted probability of offering by the end of the year at 76-80%, according to prediction markets.
- A record half-year for the global venture industry. $510 billion invested over six months and 16 rounds of $1 billion or more just in the second quarter.
- Defense technologies hit historical peaks. Over $14.6 billion invested in the sector since the beginning of the year—the previous record from 2025 surpassed before summer's end.
- Energy is becoming the second favorite sector after AI. Billion-dollar rounds in energy storage, nuclear projects, and data center infrastructure.
- New funds and "dry powder." The launch of a $1 billion Craft Ventures fund and the activity of mega-funds are fueling the market with capital.
- Russia and the CIS: cautious recovery. Projected growth of the local venture market by 10-15% and the launch of new funds of 10 billion rubles.
IPO Anthropic: rehearsing the largest offering in AI history
Anthropic, the developer of the Claude model family, is on the brink of public offering. The CFO is conducting a series of preliminary meetings with leading institutional investors—standard practice before a formal roadshow. The company privately submitted its S-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on June 1, ahead of OpenAI by a week, and now underwriters' consensus points to a Nasdaq listing in October 2026.
The scale of the deal is unprecedented. The last private Series H-1 round valued Anthropic at $965 billion with a $65 billion investment in May, while the secondary market is already trading the company's shares with an implied valuation of $1.05–1.15 trillion. Some forecasts allow for a capitalization of around $2 trillion in the event of a successful offering. Prediction markets estimate the probability of an IPO by the end of 2026 at 76-80%. The underwriters are Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan, with an expected fundraising volume of at least $60 billion. OpenAI, according to media reports, is leaning towards postponing its own listing to 2027, conceding the title of the first public AI lab to its competitor.
A record half-year: $510 billion and unprecedented capital concentration
The first half of 2026 turned out to be the strongest in the history of the venture industry. Global investments reached $510 billion, exceeding the entire result of 2025 ($440 billion). North America attracted $392 billion—an all-time regional high. At the same time, capital is concentrating in a narrow circle of companies: in the second quarter, 16 startups closed rounds of $1 billion or more, totaling $108.6 billion, accounting for 53% of quarterly funding.
For venture funds, this indicates a dual reality. On the one hand, the exit window is wide open: the second quarter became one of the strongest periods for exits in recent years, with IPOs and M&A returning in full force. On the other hand, the number of deals is growing significantly slower than the volumes, and competition for access to sector leaders is intensifying to the limit.
Mega-rounds of the week: from defense machinery to nuclear reactors
The August series of billion-dollar deals confirms investors' pivot towards the "physical" layer of the tech economy:
- Hadrian — $1.37 billion in Series D at a valuation of $7.87 billion for automated defense manufacturing; led by WCM Investment Management, Washington Harbour Partners, and Valor Equity Partners.
- Base Power — $1 billion in Series D at a valuation of $13 billion for home energy storage; among investors are Ribbit Capital, Addition, and a strategic division of JPMorgan.
- Valar Atomics — $1 billion in Series B led by Sequoia Capital for the development of small nuclear reactors, plus a $200 million credit line.
- Form Energy — $750 million in Series G led by T. Rowe Price for scaling iron-air batteries for long-duration energy storage.
- Lovable — $400 million in Series C at a valuation of $13.3 billion: the Swedish "vibe-coding" platform solidifies its status as the fastest-growing AI startup in Europe.
The overall signal of the week is clear: the largest checks in venture history are going to companies that own heavy, physical, or regulated layers of the AI economy, rather than software overlays on external infrastructure.
Defense technologies: a historical record well before the year's end
The sector of defense and national security startups is experiencing a structural boom. Since the beginning of 2026, over $14.6 billion has been invested in the industry—last year's record of $9.6 billion exceeded by summer. Leading the way is Anduril Industries with a Series H round of $5 billion at a valuation of $61 billion. Shield AI raised $1.5 billion at a valuation of $12.7 billion, while developer of autonomous vessels Saronic received $1.75 billion. A separate trend is the unprecedented activity of corporations: defense giants like Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems, and Airbus participated in venture rounds totaling $4.1 billion, marking a historical high.
IPO market: lessons from SpaceX and the queue for Anthropic
Public markets remain open but discerning. The case of SpaceX is indicative: the company conducted the largest IPO in history in June with a valuation of around $1.77 trillion, with quotes soaring to $2.5 trillion, yet after its first quarterly report, which revised expectations for AI capital expenditures, its capitalization reverted to $1.4 trillion. For investors, this serves as a reminder: even cult issuers undergo rigorous reassessment by the public market.
Nevertheless, the pipeline for offerings remains robust: quantum developer Quantinuum raised $1.68 billion in an oversubscribed IPO, and since the beginning of the year, the volume of fundraising through initial offerings in the U.S. has increased more than 2.5 times year-over-year, with Databricks, Cerebras, Wealthfront, and dozens of companies with confidential filings in the queue for listing.
New funds: "dry powder" continues to flow
The supply of capital is keeping pace with demand. Craft Ventures, led by David Sacks, announced a $1 billion fund focusing on AI. European players are strengthening their positions: Earlybird, with assets of around €2.5 billion, is lobbying for the expansion of institutional capital for continent startups. In India, on August 13 alone, seven rounds closed, involving Peak XV Partners, SMBC Asia Rising Fund, and Anicut Capital—emerging markets maintain a high pace of early-stage deals.
Russia and the CIS: recovery anchored in funds
The local market is gradually emerging from prolonged stagnation. According to industry participants' forecasts, the volume of the Russian venture market could grow by 10-15% in 2026, approaching 17 billion rubles, and in the first half of the year, the market already demonstrated growth of about 70% after several years of decline. Private and public funds are the driving force: Kama Flow and "Medscan" launched funds of 10 billion rubles each, while the Moscow venture fund is increasing its portfolio of deals with partners. The activity of business angels, according to managers, will only return as the key rate decreases.
What this means for investors: conclusions as of August 15, 2026
The venture market enters autumn 2026 in a phase of record liquidity and equally record selectiveness. Key benchmarks for funds and LPs:
- Concentration is the new norm. Nearly half of global capital is going to two companies; access to sector leaders becomes the primary competitive advantage of a fund.
- Infrastructure is more important than applications. Valuations are rising for owners of computing power, energy, manufacturing, and data—software overlays undergo more stringent security checks.
- The exit window is open, but the public market disciplines. The reassessment of SpaceX after its report serves as a warning for anyone planning offerings at the upper end of the range.
- Anthropic's IPO will be a stress test for the entire AI wave. The success or failure of the October listing will set price benchmarks for private rounds for quarters to come.
Saturday, August 15, 2026, records the market at the peak of the cycle: capital is decreasing for the select few and increasing for all others. For venture investors, this is a time for discipline—and perhaps the best opportunity in a decade for those who know how to choose wisely.
