Current News in the Oil and Gas Industry and Energy as of November 12, 2025: Sanction Pressure on Russia, Price Stability for Oil, Europe's Confidence in Gas Reserves, Development of Renewable Energy Sources, and Stabilization of the Fuel Market in Russia.
As of November 12, 2025, the global fuel and energy sector continues to operate under conditions of heightened geopolitical tension, although signs of adaptation to new realities are emerging. The sanction confrontation between Russia and the West continues to influence the industry: the European Union has approved its 19th package of restrictions aimed at reducing the revenue of the Russian energy sector (which includes a plan to gradually phase out imports of Russian gas by 2026-2027). In late October, the United States imposed sanctions against the largest oil and gas companies in Russia, and their effects are already being felt – for example, Lukoil has declared force majeure at a major field in Iraq due to the freezing of payments under American sanctions. At the same time, Washington demonstrates selective flexibility: after negotiations with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to grant Budapest a one-year exemption from sanctions for the purchase of Russian oil and gas. This move supports cautious hopes for targeted easing of energy restrictions for specific allies, despite the overall sanction pressure remaining in place.
Global commodity markets are showing relative stability under these conditions. Oil prices are holding at moderate levels: the benchmark Brent blend is trading in the mid-$60 range (around $63-$65), significantly below summer peaks. This reflects expectations of an oversupply by the end of the year – high production from OPEC+ and record volumes of oil from the U.S. offset slowing demand growth, creating a "bearish" backdrop for the market. Nevertheless, geopolitical risks and uncertainty surrounding sanctions add a slight premium to oil quotes, preventing prices from falling even further.
The European gas market is confidently looking toward winter. Underground gas storage facilities (UGS) in EU countries are filled to about 83-85%, which, while lower than last year's levels, provides a substantial buffer against cold weather. Diversified imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the U.S., Qatar, and other exporters largely compensate for the sharp reduction in pipeline supplies from Russia. Wholesale gas prices in Europe remain significantly below the crisis peaks of 2022; the volatility of recent months is primarily driven by weather factors. In the absence of abnormal cold spells, the EU has every chance of getting through the upcoming heating season without price shocks.
Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum. In 2025, record capacities of renewable energy are being added – from large solar parks to offshore wind farms. Many countries are recording new historical peaks in "green" electricity production, although traditional generation (gas, coal, nuclear) still plays a crucial role in ensuring system reliability. Innovative trends are strengthening: sales of electric vehicles are accelerating globally, new hydrogen projects are being launched, and energy companies are investing in energy storage systems and network digitalization. While these processes reduce long-term demand for fossil fuels, they also require infrastructure modernization and additional capacity reserves.
In Russia, emergency measures taken in the fall to stabilize the domestic fuel market are yielding results. Extended restrictions on the export of gasoline and diesel, along with adjustments to damping subsidies for refineries, have allowed wholesale prices to decrease and eliminated shortages in problem regions. After a spike in gasoline prices in August, the situation at gas stations has normalized; the government is already considering the possibility of cautiously lifting export barriers in early 2026, provided that stable prices for domestic consumers are maintained.
Key Takeaways
- Oil: high supply from OPEC+ and record production in the U.S. keep oil prices in a moderate range (~$60-$65 per barrel of Brent) amid slower growth of global demand.
- Gas: Europe enters winter with large gas reserves (around 85% UGS fill); record LNG imports from the U.S., Qatar, and other countries compensate for reductions in pipeline supplies and prevent sharp price increases.
- Sanctions and Geopolitics: new measures from the U.S. and EU increase pressure on the Russian energy sector, forcing companies and investors to adapt and redirect supplies. At the same time, Washington's decision to exempt Hungary from some restrictions signals the possibility of exceptions for allies despite overall sanction pressure.
- Asia: China and India remain key drivers of hydrocarbon demand. A slowdown in China's economy restrains consumption growth, while India continues to purchase Russian oil to meet its rising demand, despite pressure from the West. Both countries are simultaneously ramping up investments in renewable energy to enhance their energy security.
- Electricity and Renewables: global generation from renewable sources hits records in 2025 – wind and solar capacities are growing rapidly. However, the variable nature of "green" energy demands the development of storage systems and support from base generation (gas, coal, nuclear) to ensure reliable energy supply.
- Fuel Market in Russia: Russia has extended export restrictions on gasoline and diesel, which, along with adjustments to subsidies for refineries, stabilized internal prices after a summer spike. Additional fuel volumes are directed to the domestic market, eliminating shortages at gas stations; discussions are underway about gradually lifting export barriers in 2026, pending price stability.
The Oil Market: Excess Supply Pressures Prices Amid Moderate Demand
Pricing Situation. In mid-November, global oil prices remain at relatively low levels following a decline in the fall. The North Sea Brent blend is hovering around $64 per barrel, approximately 10-15% lower than levels at the start of summer. The market balance has shifted towards surplus: participants are factoring in expectations of oversupply by the end of the year. Although geopolitical factors (conflicts in the Middle East, sanction risks) add a slight risk premium, overall sentiment remains cautious and "bearish," preventing prices from either soaring or plummeting sharply.
- Supply: OPEC+ countries are gradually ramping up production after a period of strict restrictions. At an extraordinary meeting in early November, the alliance agreed to a symbolic increase in quotas of about +137,000 barrels per day from December, deferring more significant steps until the first quarter of 2026 (essentially signaling a pause in further production growth at the beginning of the next year). Meanwhile, U.S. oil production has reached a historic high of nearly 13 million barrels per day due to the shale boom and relaxed regulatory requirements. High supply volumes from OPEC+, the U.S., and other producers (including the resumption of oil exports from Kurdistan in Iraq after a prolonged suspension) saturate the oil market.
- Demand: the pace of global oil consumption growth has significantly slowed. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), demand is expected to increase by less than 1 million barrels per day (for comparison, in 2023, the increase exceeded 2 million barrels per day). OPEC's forecast also implies moderate growth (~+1.3 million barrels per day). A slowdown in the global economy – especially in China – along with the impact of previous high prices (which encouraged energy conservation and efficiency improvements) restrains consumption. Additionally, the accelerated spread of electric vehicles and the shift to more fuel-efficient engines gradually reduce demand for gasoline and diesel.
- Stocks: commercial inventories of oil and petroleum products in non-OECD countries have increased in recent months, reflecting surplus in the market. In the United States, autumn saw the planned replenishment of strategic oil reserves amid record production and relatively low prices. Furthermore, some previously restricted volumes have returned to the global market: for example, exports through the Turkish port of Ceyhan from Iraqi Kurdistan have resumed, and supplies from Iran have increased. Inventory accumulation puts additional pressure on quotes, signaling sufficient oil supply even considering the sanctions barriers.
Outlook. The oil market approaches the year's end in a state of relative equilibrium, but with a clear trend toward oversupply. In the absence of serious unforeseen events, prices are likely to remain within a guarded corridor until early 2026. Fears of supply disruptions or escalation of geopolitical conflicts prevent quotes from crashing, but expectations of further supply growth from OPEC+ and shale companies establish predominance of "bearish" sentiment. Oil companies are focused on controlling costs and hedging risks, while refiners optimize product assortment (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel) and supply logistics amid moderate prices and tough competition.
The Gas Market: Europe is Prepared for Winter Thanks to Stocks and LNG
Situation in Europe. The natural gas market remains relatively stable despite the approaching winter cold. European countries have managed to accumulate significant reserves in advance: by early November, the average level of UGS fill in the EU was around 85%. Although this is somewhat below record figures from a year ago, such high stocks provide a solid safety buffer. Successful diversification of import sources has compensated for the reduction of Russian pipeline gas: in 2025, LNG supplies to Europe reached peaks due to high export volumes from the U.S., Qatar, Australia, and other countries, while a decline in gas demand in Asia during the first half of the year allowed additional LNG shipments to be directed to European terminals.
- Stocks and Imports: the high level of storage fill, coupled with the continuous influx of LNG, means that Europe enters the heating season reasonably well-supplied with gas. An additional favorable factor has been the relative weakening of competition for LNG from Asia – for example, China's gas imports have decreased over the year, temporarily freeing up some supplies for the European market. As a result, even with a reduction in pipeline gas supplies from the east, European consumers are currently not experiencing fuel shortages.
- Prices: thanks to accumulated stocks and alternative supplies, European gas prices are maintained at levels incomparable to crisis peaks of 2022. In recent months, quotes have fluctuated within a moderate range (to provide context: around €30 per MWh at the Dutch TTF hub), responding primarily to weather changes and consumption levels. If the coming winter is not extremely cold and Asian buyers do not provoke a price spike by competing for spot LNG supplies, the European gas market has a high chance of getting through the season without sharp price surges.
- Demand and Generation: measures to improve energy efficiency, substitute gas with renewable sources, and relatively weak industrial activity are restraining domestic gas consumption in Europe. However, gas remains a key balancing fuel in the power sector. When wind or solar generation declines, EU energy systems increase their share of gas (and sometimes coal) generation. For instance, a prolonged period of weak winds in northern Europe in the fall forced energy companies to ramp up gas generation by tens of percent above last year's levels to compensate for the lack of "green" electricity.
Markets and Risks. Overall, the European gas market demonstrates resilience and adaptability. Traders and energy companies are currently paying particularly close attention to weather forecasts, consumption levels, and the schedule for new LNG tanker arrivals. A key short-term risk is an unexpectedly severe winter: a sudden drop in temperatures could increase withdrawals from storage and push prices higher. Moreover, the situation in Asia remains an important factor: a resurgence in Asian demand for LNG (for instance, due to economic recovery in China or Japan) could intensify competition for available volumes. However, for now, Europe has sufficient reserves, and under average weather conditions, the gas market is likely to conclude winter without significant disruptions.
Electricity Sector: Supply Stability and Interest in a "Nuclear Renaissance"
The electricity sector in 2025 has not experienced significant disruptions – major energy systems have managed to ensure reliable supply to meet growing demand. Global electricity consumption continues to rise and, by the end of the year, is expected to reach a new record. This is driven both by economic growth (primarily in developing countries) and accelerated electrification of transportation and industrial sectors. Despite the considerable increase in load, energy companies and grid operators maintain control of the situation: reserve capacities have been mobilized, and the maintenance schedules for generating equipment and grid infrastructure have been optimized to avoid shortages during peak consumption hours.
One of the main priorities for governments has been energy security. In light of past crises, many countries have reassessed their plans for decommissioning capacities: in some places, the timelines for closing coal-fired power plants have been pushed back, while in others, the extension of operating periods for existing nuclear reactors is being discussed. In fact, one could speak of an emerging "nuclear renaissance." For example, in Japan and South Korea, previously shut-down nuclear power plants are being restarted, while new units are being constructed or planned in China, India, the UK, and France. Even some EU countries that had previously planned to completely phase out nuclear energy are considering extending the operation of existing reactors, taking into account their role in stable energy supply and achieving climate goals.
Thus, the electricity sector currently presents a dual picture: on one hand, the industry is rapidly "greening" through renewable energy sources, while on the other, the importance of traditional base capacities is growing for ensuring system stability. The long-term trend indicates a further increase in the share of electricity in global energy consumption (as transport, heating, and industry become more electrified), so issues of grid reliability, creating strategic capacity reserves, and modernizing infrastructure will remain on the agenda. Investors are positively evaluating initiatives aimed at developing "smart" grids and energy storage systems designed to smooth peak loads and integrate unstable generation from renewable sources.
Renewable Energy: Record Growth of Capacities and Variability Issues
The renewable energy sector in 2025 is demonstrating accelerated development and setting new records. According to preliminary estimates from industry agencies, over 300 GW of new renewable capacity has been installed globally over the year – one of the highest figures in history. This growth is primarily driven by solar and wind power plants: large projects are being implemented in China, the U.S., India, the Middle East, and Europe. Many countries report new peaks in "green" generation. For instance, in Spain, Germany, and several other states, during certain days, the share of energy from wind and solar exceeded 50-60%, while Australia and a number of EU countries periodically cover daytime consumption entirely through solar generation.
At the same time, such rapid progress reveals emerging issues. The variable nature of renewable sources—dependency on weather and time of day—still creates challenges for energy systems. In periods of calm or cloudiness, renewable energy generation drops sharply, necessitating the use of reserve capacities based on gas, coal, or nuclear (as noted, this situation arose in Europe during a prolonged period of weak winds this fall). To smooth out such fluctuations, large energy storage systems are essential. In 2025, investments in industrial batteries, hydrogen-based energy storage projects, and the construction of pumped storage plants are expanding. However, existing systems remain insufficient, and experts are calling for their accelerated implementation.
Despite these challenges, the trend remains unchanged: renewable energy is capturing an increasing market share. Alongside environmental goals, an important driver has been economic efficiency: the cost of electricity generation from new solar and wind installations in most regions is already comparable to or lower than that of traditional power plants. Additionally, the adjacent "green" economy sector is growing – in 2025, records were set for electric vehicle sales and installations of distributed generation systems (such as residential solar panels). All of this indicates the beginning of qualitative changes in the global energy balance, although the path to a fully carbon-neutral system will still require significant investments and technological breakthroughs.
Coal Sector: Long-Term Decline in Role Amid Price Stabilization
The global coal market in 2025 is influenced by the persistent trend of reduced usage of this fuel in power generation. Analysts note that global coal consumption has plateaued and is expected to remain at current levels in the coming years, with a potential downward trend. Following a record year in 2024 (when demand reached a historic maximum of around 8.8 billion tons), 2025 sees a slight decline, particularly from developed countries actively replacing coal with cleaner sources. The prices for thermal coal have stabilized at comparatively low levels compared to the peak figures from two years ago—due to a lack of shortages and excess mining capacities.
Many countries continue to announce policies to phase out coal generation. In several developed countries, timelines for closing the last coal power plants have been set for the 2030s and 2040s. In developing economies, where coal remains a significant part of the energy balance (for example, in India, China, and Indonesia), the focus is on emission reduction technologies and the gradual decrease of coal's share as renewable energy increases. Currently, the growth of renewable capacities in many regions outpaces the commissioning of new coal plants. Investors are becoming increasingly cautious about the coal sector due to high climate risks and tightening environmental regulations.
Nonetheless, short-term spikes in coal demand could still occur due to specific conditions. For instance, in the summer of 2025, due to extreme heat and rising electricity consumption in Asia, some countries temporarily increased imports of thermal coal. In August, global coal supply volumes for power plants reached their highest since late 2024 due to increases in purchases by China and other Asian nations. However, by autumn, the situation returned to normal: demand in Asia decreased slightly due to mild weather and economic conditions (for example, in India, October coal generation fell by 13% year-on-year due to heavy rains and weak industrial demand). Thus, one-time spikes do not negate the downward trend. The share of coal in global generation is expected to steadily decline, and any price increases for coal are likely to be temporary and quickly offset when conditions normalize.
Overall, the coal sector is undergoing a structural transformation. Companies must either diversify toward other resources or invest in clean technologies to remain competitive. In the short term, the coal market will remain relatively balanced: supply is sufficient, and demand is gradually shifting downward. The key unknown for coal producers remains the speed of the energy transition – the more actively countries introduce alternative capacities, the faster coal will lose its positions globally.
Fuel Market and Refining: Excess Capacities and Stable Prices
By the end of 2025, the global market for petroleum products is characterized by stable supply and the absence of acute imbalances. Prices for major fuel types (gasoline, diesel) have declined from the peak values of last year, reflecting the drop in oil prices and the absence of shortages in key markets. Even jet fuel, whose demand is recovering as international air travel revives, is significantly cheaper than during the price surge of 2022-2023. For refining companies, however, the situation is not unambiguous: rising raw material and energy costs, along with a structural decrease in demand for traditional fuel types in developed countries, keep refinery margins under pressure.
- Supply: the commissioning of new refining capacities in the Middle East and Asia in recent years has significantly increased global fuel supply. Major modern refineries in China, the Gulf countries, and Southeast Asia are operating at full capacity, adding millions of tons of gasoline, diesel, and petrochemical feedstock to the market. Simultaneously, a number of outdated refineries in Europe and North America have reduced processing or been closed due to low profitability and stringent environmental regulations. As a result, total global refining capacities now exceed current demand levels, ensuring sufficient fuel volumes in the international market.
- Demand: gasoline consumption is stagnating or even declining in developed economies as the fleet of electric vehicles grows and fuel efficiency in internal combustion engine vehicles increases. Diesel fuel demand is also under pressure: the transportation sector and industry are adopting more economical technologies and shifting to alternative energy sources (gas, electricity, biofuels). The only segment where noticeable consumption growth is seen is aviation fuel. With the recovery of international tourism and business activity, jet fuel usage is increasing, although globally it has not yet reached pre-crisis levels of 2019.
- Regulation in Russia: in the Russian fuel sector, the policy of stringent control over domestic prices continued in the fall of 2025. The government extended the temporary ban on the export of automotive gasoline at least until the end of the year (with an option for extension into 2026), while the export of diesel is permitted only if the internal market is fully supplied – effectively maintaining quantitative export limitations. Simultaneously, the damping mechanism for compensations to refineries has been adjusted: the price threshold after which payments are significantly reduced has been raised. This reduces the attractiveness of fuel exports amid high global prices and encourages oil companies to direct product to the domestic market. Additionally, additional volumes of gasoline and diesel have been allocated from the state reserve to supply regions that experienced acute shortages over the summer – these measures have helped normalize the situation in the retail segment.
Outcomes for Russia. The set of measures undertaken has allowed the situation in the domestic fuel market to stabilize by November. Wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel, which reached record highs in August, have significantly retreated and are now maintained within a narrow range. Retail prices have also stopped rising rapidly; although the price per liter is still higher than it was a year ago, the rate of increase has slowed significantly. Gas stations in remote and southern regions (e.g., Crimea, the Far East), where the situation was most tense in the summer, are now adequately supplied with necessary fuel volumes. The successful completion of the harvest season, which previously fueled diesel demand, has also contributed. Experts note that if oil quotes remain at their current low levels, the Russian government may cautiously start easing export restrictions in early 2026. However, such steps will only be possible if the internal market is fully saturated, and prices for fuel for end consumers are kept under control.
