Comprehensive Overview of the Situation in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of November 29, 2025: Oil Prices at Lows, Asia Reduces Imports, Sanction Pressure, Price Dynamics, Gas Market, Energy Transition, Coal, Domestic Fuel Market.
Current events in the global fuel and energy sector as of November 29, 2025, are unfolding against a backdrop of conflicting signals, drawing the attention of investors and participants in the fuel and energy market. Diplomatic efforts to resolve conflicts inspire cautious optimism regarding a reduction in geopolitical tensions: potential peace initiatives are being discussed that might alleviate sanction pressures in the long run. At the same time, Western countries maintain a strict sanctions stance, supporting a challenging environment for traditional export flows of energy resources.
Global oil prices remain at relatively low levels due to an oversupply and weakened demand. The Brent North Sea benchmark is holding around $62–63 per barrel, while US WTI is in the vicinity of $58, closely approaching minimal levels seen in the past couple of years and significantly lower than levels from the previous year. The European gas market is entering winter in a balanced state: underground gas storage facilities (UGS) in EU countries are approximately 75–80% full by the end of November, providing a solid reserve of durability. Exchange prices for gas are maintained at relatively low levels. However, the factor of weather uncertainty persists: a sharp cold snap could lead to a surge in price volatility as the season progresses.
Simultaneously, the global energy transition is accelerating—many countries are setting records for electricity generation from renewable sources (RES), though traditional resources remain necessary for the reliability of energy systems. Investors and companies are pouring unprecedented funds into "green" energy, even though oil, gas, and coal continue to underpin global energy supply. In Russia, after the recent autumn fuel crisis, emergency measures taken by the authorities stabilized the domestic market for petroleum products ahead of winter: wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel turned downwards, eliminating shortages at gas stations. Below is a detailed overview of the key news and trends in the oil, gas, energy, and commodity segments of the fuel and energy complex as of the current date.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Weak Demand Keep Prices Low
The global oil market demonstrates sluggish price dynamics influenced by fundamental factors of oversupply and declining demand. A barrel of Brent is trading in a narrow range around $62, while WTI is around $58, approximately 15% below last year’s level and near multi-year lows. The market is not receiving strong impulses for either growth or further decline, remaining in a state of relative equilibrium. The cumulative effect of current trends leads to the formation of a slight surplus of oil in the market.
- OPEC+ Production Increase: The OPEC+ alliance continues to gradually increase supply. In December 2025, the total production quota for participants in the deal will rise by a further 137,000 barrels per day. Although further quota increases are postponed until at least Spring 2026 due to concerns of oversaturation in the market, the current increase in supply is already exerting downward pressure on prices.
- Sluggish Demand: The growth rate of global oil consumption has significantly decreased. The IEA estimates the demand increase in 2025 to be less than 0.8 million barrels/day (versus ~2.5 million in 2023). Even OPEC's forecasts are now more restrained—about +1.2 million barrels/day. Weakness in the global economy and the effects of previous price spikes limit consumption; an additional factor is the slowdown in industrial growth in China.
Low prices are beginning to affect high-cost producers. In the US shale sector, there is a reduction in drilling activity, as the ~$60 per barrel level is near the breakeven point for several independent companies. Some analysts predict that if current trends persist, the average price of Brent could drop as low as $50 per barrel in 2026. For now, however, the oversupply and expectations of a softer geopolitical situation keep oil prices under pressure.
Gas Market: Europe Enters Winter with High Storage Levels at Moderate Prices
On the gas market, the focus is on Europe's passage through the heating season. EU countries approached the winter cold with storage facilities filled to a comfortable 75–80% by the end of November. This is slightly below last year's record levels and provides a strong buffer in case of prolonged cold spells. Thanks to this and supply diversification, European gas prices remain low: December TTF futures are trading around €27 per MWh (≈$330 per 1,000 m³), a low not seen in over a year.
High storage levels have been achieved thanks to record imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). European companies actively purchased LNG from the US, Qatar, and other countries this autumn, nearly compensating for the reduction in pipeline supplies from Russia. More than 10 billion cubic meters of LNG arrived in European ports each month, allowing UGS to be filled ahead of schedule. An additional factor is the mild weather: a warm autumn and a delayed onset of cold weather slow consumption and allow gas to be drawn from storage more slowly than usual.
As a result, the European gas market currently appears robust: reserves are large, and prices are moderate by historical standards. This situation is favorable for industry and electricity generation in Europe as winter begins, reducing costs and risks of disruptions. However, market participants continue to monitor weather forecasts: in the event of anomalous cold, the balance of supply and demand could shift rapidly, forcing a swift withdrawal of gas from UGS and causing price spikes closer to the end of the season.
Geopolitics: Peace Initiatives Inspire Hope While Sanction Confrontation Persists
Cautious hopes for a geopolitical thaw emerged in the second half of November. Reports indicate that the US has unofficially presented a plan for a peaceful resolution to the conflict surrounding Ukraine, involving a phased lifting of some sanctions against Russia upon fulfilling agreements. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has reportedly received signals from Washington to seriously consider the proposed agreement developed with Moscow's participation. The prospect of reaching a compromise inspires optimism: de-escalation could potentially lift restrictions on Russian energy exports and improve the business climate in commodity markets.
However, as of now, there has been no real breakthrough; on the contrary, the West is intensifying sanction pressure. On November 21, a new US sanctions package came into effect, directly targeting the Russian oil and gas sector. Major companies "Rosneft" and "LUKOIL" are under the restrictions; foreign counterparties are required to halt cooperation with them fully by this date. In mid-November, the UK and EU announced additional measures against Russian energy assets. London has given companies until November 28 to finalize any deals with these energy giants, after which cooperation must cease. The US administration has also threatened further stringent actions (including special tariffs against countries continuing to purchase Russian oil) if diplomatic progress stalls.
Thus, there have been no concrete shifts on the diplomatic front, and the sanction confrontation remains in full force. Nevertheless, the mere fact that dialogue continues between key players offers hope that the most severe restrictions may be tempered in anticipation of negotiation outcomes. In the coming weeks, markets will closely monitor contacts between global leaders. The success of peace initiatives will brighten investor sentiment and soften sanction rhetoric, while their failure carries the risk of new escalation. The outcomes of these efforts will largely determine the long-term conditions for cooperation in energy and the ground rules in the oil and gas market.
Asia: India and China Adapt to Sanction Pressures
The two largest Asian energy consumers—India and China—are forced to adapt to new trading restrictions on oil.
- India: Under pressure from Western sanctions, Indian refineries have significantly reduced their purchases of Russian oil. In particular, Reliance Industries halted imports of the Urals grade by November 20, receiving additional price discounts in return. Increased banking oversight and the risk of secondary sanctions are forcing Indian refiners to seek alternative suppliers, even though in 2025 Russia provided up to one-third of all oil imports to India.
- China: In China, state oil companies have temporarily suspended new deals for importing Russian oil, fearing secondary sanctions. However, independent refiners (the so-called "teapots") have taken advantage of the situation, increasing purchases to record levels and obtaining feedstock at significant discounts. Although China is also increasing its own oil and gas production, it remains approximately 70% dependent on oil imports and 40% on gas imports, remaining critically reliant on external supplies.
Energy Transition: Renewable Records and Challenges for Energy Systems
Many countries are setting new records in "green" generation. In the European Union, total electricity generation from solar and wind surpassed electricity production from coal and gas power plants for the first time by the end of 2024. In the US, the share of renewable sources exceeded 30% at the beginning of 2025. China continues to introduce record capacities for solar and wind power, strengthening its leadership in RES. Investments in clean energy are also hitting new highs: the IEA estimates that global investments in energy transformation will exceed $3 trillion in 2025, with more than half of that amount allocated to RES, modernization of power grids, and energy storage systems.
However, energy systems still require traditional generation to ensure stability. The increasing share of sunlight and wind presents balancing challenges, as RES do not produce electricity consistently. Gas and, in some cases, coal power plants are still needed to cover peak loads—for instance, last winter, some European countries had to briefly increase coal generation during windless periods. Authorities in various countries are rapidly investing in large-scale energy storage and "smart" grids, striving to enhance the reliability of energy systems.
Experts predict that by 2026–2027, renewable sources will become the largest segment in global electricity generation, surpassing coal. However, in the coming years, traditional stations will remain necessary as reserves and insurance. The energy transition reaches new heights but requires a delicate balance between green technologies and established resources to ensure uninterrupted energy supply.
Coal: Steady Demand Supports Market Stability
Despite the global drive toward decarbonization, coal continues to play a key role in the energy balance. This autumn, electricity generation from coal-fired power plants in China rose to record levels, although domestic coal production slightly declined. As a result, coal imports to China reached multi-year highs, lifting global prices from the lows seen during the summer. Other major consumers, such as India, continue to generate a large portion of electricity from coal, and many developing countries are still building new coal-fired power plants. Coal exporters have increased supplies, taking advantage of strong demand for the commodity.
Following the upheavals of 2022, the coal market has returned to relative stability: demand remains high and prices are moderate. Even with the implementation of climate strategies, coal will remain an indispensable component of energy supply in the coming years. Analysts expect that in the next decade, coal generation, particularly in Asia, will maintain a significant role despite the ongoing efforts to reduce emissions.
Russian Fuel Market: Price Normalization After Autumn Crisis
The Russian fuel market has achieved stabilization following the acute crisis that emerged at the beginning of autumn. By the end of summer, wholesale gasoline and diesel prices in the country soared to unprecedented heights, causing local fuel shortages at some gas stations. The government had to intervene: temporary restrictions on the export of petroleum products were introduced at the end of September, and while oil refineries (OR) increased fuel production after completing scheduled repairs. By mid-October, these measures helped reverse the price surge.
The decline in wholesale prices continued into late autumn. By the last week of November, the exchange prices for AI-92 gasoline decreased by approximately another 4%, AI-95 by 3%, and diesel also dropped by approximately 3%. The stabilization in the wholesale market began to be reflected in retail prices: consumer prices for gasoline have slowly decreased for three consecutive weeks (albeit by only a few pennies). On November 20, the State Duma passed a law aimed at guaranteeing the prioritization of supplying the domestic market with petroleum products.
Overall, the measures taken have already shown effects: the autumn price spike has been replaced by a decline, and the situation in the fuel market is gradually normalizing. Authorities aim to maintain control over prices, preventing new spikes in fuel costs in the coming months.
Prospects for Investors and Market Participants in the Fuel and Energy Sector
On one hand, oversupply and hopes for peaceful resolution of conflicts are softening prices and risks. On the other hand, ongoing sanction confrontations and persistent geopolitical tensions create significant uncertainty. Investors and companies in the fuel and energy sector must particularly focus on risk management and maintain flexibility in these conditions.
Oil and gas companies are currently focusing on enhancing efficiency and diversifying distribution channels amid the restructuring of trade flows. At the same time, they are seeking new growth points—from exploring new fields to investing in renewable energy and storage infrastructure. Upcoming key events will include the OPEC+ meeting in early December and potential progress in peace negotiations regarding Ukraine: their outcomes will largely determine market sentiment as we approach 2026.
Experts advise maintaining a diversified strategy. It is prudent to combine operational measures for business resilience with long-term plans that account for the accelerating energy transition and the new configuration of the global fuel and energy complex. Such an approach will help companies and investors navigate current challenges and seize opportunities in the rapidly changing energy market.
