Current News in the Oil and Gas Industry and Energy Sector for Friday, November 28, 2025: Oil and Gas Prices, Sanctions, Fuel Market, Renewable Energy, Coal, Overview of Key Events for Investors.
Current events in the global fuel and energy sector as of November 28, 2025, are evolving amidst conflicting signals, attracting the attention of investors and market participants. Diplomatic efforts aimed at conflict resolution inspire cautious optimism regarding a reduction in geopolitical tension: potential peace initiatives are being discussed that may eventually alleviate the pressure of sanctions. At the same time, Western countries maintain a firm stance on sanctions, continuing to create a complex environment for traditional energy resource export flows.
Global oil prices remain relatively low due to an oversupply and weakened demand. The North Sea Brent crude is holding steady at around $61–62 per barrel, while the American WTI is at approximately $57, close to two-year lows and significantly below last year's levels. The European gas market is entering winter in a relatively balanced state: underground gas storage (UGS) in EU countries is filled at around 75–80% of total capacity by the end of November. These reserves provide a solid buffer of stability, and gas market prices remain at comparatively low levels. However, uncertainty due to weather factors persists: a sudden drop in temperatures could lead to a spike in price volatility as the season progresses.
Simultaneously, the global energy transition is accelerating, with many countries setting records for electricity generation from renewable energy sources (RES), although traditional resources are still necessary for energy system reliability. Investors and companies are pouring unprecedented funds into green energy, even as oil, gas, and coal remain the foundation of global energy supply. In Russia, following the recent autumn fuel crisis, government emergency measures have stabilized the domestic fuel market ahead of winter: wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel have reversed downward, eliminating shortages at gas stations. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, energy, and raw material segments of the energy sector as of today.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Weak Demand Keep Prices at Minimums
The global oil market is showing weak price dynamics influenced by fundamental factors of oversupply and slowing demand. Brent crude is trading in a narrow range around $61–62, while WTI hovers around $57, which is approximately 15% lower than this time last year and close to multi-year lows.
- OPEC+ Production Increase. The OPEC+ alliance continues to gradually increase supply. In December 2025, the total production quota for the participants in the deal will rise by an additional 137,000 barrels per day. However, further increases in quotas are postponed until at least spring 2026 due to concerns about oversaturating the market; the current rise in supply is already exerting downward pressure on prices.
- Demand Slowdown. The pace of global oil consumption growth has significantly slowed. The IEA estimates the demand increase for 2025 to be less than 0.8 million barrels per day (compared to approximately 2.5 million in 2023). Even OPEC projections have become more restrained, forecasting around +1.2 million barrels per day. The weakening of the global economy and effects from previous price spikes limit consumption; an additional factor is the slowdown in industrial growth in China.
- Geopolitical Factors. Signals of a potential peace plan for Ukraine have temporarily reduced part of the geopolitical risk premium in prices. However, there are currently no real agreements in place, and the sanctions regime remains unchanged, preventing any sustained calming of the market. Traders continue to react nervously to news: without real progress, any peace initiatives offer only short-term effects.
- U.S. Shale Production. Relatively low prices are beginning to curb the activity of American shale companies. The number of drilling rigs in key U.S. oil basins is declining as prices have dropped to around $60 per barrel, making new well development less profitable. If this price environment persists, growth in U.S. supply may noticeably slow down.
The cumulative impact of these factors is leading to a slight surplus in the market: current supply is slightly exceeding demand. Oil prices remain close to recent lows. Some analysts note that if current trends continue into 2026, the average price for Brent could drop to $50 per barrel. For now, the market remains in relative equilibrium, lacking strong impulses for either growth or decline.
Gas Market: Europe Enters Winter with High Stocks and Moderate Prices
In the gas market, the focus is on Europe's progress through the heating season. EU countries approach the winter colder months with underground storage filled to a comfortable 75–80% of their capacity by the end of November. This is slightly below last year's record levels and provides a robust buffer against prolonged cold snaps. Consequently, along with diversified supplies, European gas prices remain low: December TTF futures are around €27 per MWh (≈$330 per 1000 cubic meters)—the lowest in over a year.
High stocks have been possible due to record liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. In the autumn, European companies actively sourced LNG from the U.S., Qatar, and other countries, almost compensating for reduced pipeline deliveries from Russia. Over 10 billion cubic meters of LNG were arriving at European ports monthly, allowing for timely storage fills. An additional factor has been mild weather: a warm autumn and late onset of cold have restrained consumption and allowed for slower gas drawdown from reserves.
As a result, the European gas market currently appears stable: reserves are high, and prices are moderate by historical standards. This is favorable for European industry and power generation at the start of winter, helping to reduce costs and risks of disruptions. However, market participants continue to monitor weather forecasts: in the case of abnormal cold, the balance could change rapidly, forcing quicker gas consumption from underground storage and triggering price spikes as the season approaches its end.
Geopolitics: Peace Initiatives and Sanctions Pressure Create Mixed Expectations
In the latter half of November, cautious hopes for geopolitical de-escalation emerged. The U.S. unofficially introduced a peace plan regarding Ukraine, which includes a phased lifting of some sanctions against Russia. According to media reports, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has received a signal from Washington to take the proposed agreement, developed with Moscow's involvement, seriously. The prospect of reaching a compromise brings optimism: de-escalation of the conflict could potentially lift restrictions on Russian energy resource exports and improve the business climate in commodity markets.
However, there is currently no real breakthrough, and conversely, the West has intensified sanctions pressure. A new package of U.S. sanctions targeting the Russian oil and gas sector came into effect on November 21, directly affecting major companies such as Rosneft and Lukoil—foreign partners were instructed to cease cooperation with them by this date. In mid-November, Britain and the EU announced additional measures against Russian energy assets, with London giving companies until November 28 to conclude dealings with these oil giants, after which any collaboration must end. The U.S. administration has also threatened further strict measures (up to special tariffs against countries continuing to purchase Russian oil) if diplomatic progress stalls.
Thus, on the diplomatic front, there have yet to be concrete shifts, and the sanctions standoff remains fully in effect. However, the mere fact that dialogue continues among key players gives hope that the most stringent restrictions may be slowed in anticipation of negotiation outcomes. In the coming weeks, markets will be watching the contacts among global leaders: the success of peace initiatives will boost investor sentiment and temper the rhetoric of restrictions, while their failure threatens new escalation. The results of these efforts will determine the long-term terms of cooperation in the energy sector and the rules of the game in the oil and gas market.
Asia: India and China Under Sanctions Pressure
India and China, the two largest Asian consumers, are forced to adapt to sanctions pressure. Under Western pressure, Indian oil refiners are reducing their purchases of Russian oil (notably, Reliance suspended Urals imports by November 20, receiving additional price discounts in return). In China, state-owned companies have temporarily halted new deals for Russian oil, fearing secondary sanctions, but independent refineries have ramped up purchases to record levels, capitalizing on the situation. Despite increasing its own oil and gas production, China remains reliant on external supplies for about 70% of oil and 40% of gas.
Energy Transition: RES Records and Challenges for Energy Systems
Many countries are witnessing new records in "green" generation. In the EU, total output from solar and wind energy for 2024 surpassed production from coal and gas plants for the first time; in the U.S., the share of RES exceeded 30% in early 2025. China continues to set record levels of solar and wind capacity installations, strengthening its leadership. Investments in clean energy are also at an all-time high: the IEA estimates that in 2025 they will surpass $3 trillion, with over half directed toward RES, energy networks, and storage.
Nevertheless, energy systems still require traditional generation for reliability. The growing share of solar and wind creates balancing challenges, as RES do not produce electricity constantly. To meet peak loads, gas-fired plants, and to some extent, coal plants are still needed; for example, last winter, some European countries had to briefly increase coal generation during windless periods. Authorities are rapidly investing in energy storage and "smart" grids to enhance reliability. Experts predict that by 2026-2027, renewable sources will become the largest in global electricity generation, surpassing coal, but in the coming years, traditional stations will remain essential as a backup. The energy transition is reaching new heights but requires a delicate balance between green technologies and proven resources.
Coal: Steady Demand Supports Market Stability
Despite the global push for decarbonization, coal continues to hold a crucial place in the energy balance. In the autumn, China ramped up electricity generation at coal-fired power plants to record levels, although domestic production slightly declined—this increased imports to multi-year highs and pushed global prices up from summer lows. Other major consumers (such as India) still generate most of their electricity from coal, and many developing countries are constructing new coal-fired power plants. Exporters are increasing supplies to take advantage of strong demand. Following the shocks of 2022, the coal market has returned to relative stability: demand remains high, and prices are moderate. Even as climate strategies are implemented, coal is likely to remain an indispensable component of energy supply in the coming years. Analysts predict that in the next decade, coal generation, especially in Asia, will retain a significant role despite efforts to cut emissions.
Russian Fuel Market: Price Normalization After Autumn Crisis
The internal fuel market in Russia has stabilized following the acute crisis in early autumn. At the end of the summer, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel soared to record highs, triggering local fuel shortages at some gas stations. The government had to intervene: since late September, temporary export restrictions on oil products have been introduced, and oil refineries (refineries) increased fuel output after completing maintenance. By mid-October, thanks to these measures, the price surge had been reversed.
The decline in wholesale prices continued into late autumn. By the last week of November, exchange prices for gasoline Ai-92 decreased by approximately 4%, Ai-95 by 3%, and diesel by around 3%. The stabilization of the wholesale market began to reflect in retail prices: consumer prices for gasoline have slowly decreased for the third consecutive week (though only by a few kopecks). On November 20, the State Duma passed a law aimed at guaranteeing priority supply of oil products to the domestic market. Overall, the measures taken have already had an effect: the autumn price spike was replaced by a downturn, and the situation in the fuel market is gradually normalizing. Authorities aim to maintain price control to prevent further spikes in fuel prices in the upcoming months.
Prospects for Investors and Energy Sector Market Participants
On one hand, oversupply and hopes for peaceful conflict resolution are softening prices and risks. On the other hand, the ongoing sanctions standoff and persistent geopolitical tensions create serious uncertainty. Investors and companies in the fuel and energy sector need to manage risks carefully and maintain flexibility in these conditions.
Oil, gas, and fuel companies are focusing on enhancing efficiency and diversifying sales channels amid the restructuring of trade flows, while also seeking new growth opportunities—from exploration of fields to investments in renewable energy and storage infrastructure.
In the near future, key events will include the OPEC+ meeting in early December and possible progress in peace negotiations regarding Ukraine—their outcomes will significantly shape market sentiment as we approach 2026. Experts recommend adhering to a diversified strategy: combining operational measures for business resilience with the realization of long-term plans that consider the accelerating energy transition and the new configuration of the global energy sector.
