Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of November 13, 2025: Transactions, Geopolitics, Exports, Oil and Gas Production, Sanctions Impact, and Global Market Balance. Analytics for Investors and Energy Sector Participants.
The latest events in the fuel and energy complex (TEC) as of November 13, 2025, draw significant attention from investors and market participants due to their ambiguity. There is still no breakthrough in relations between Russia and the West; on the contrary, the United States has introduced new sanctions against major Russian oil companies, indicating an escalation in the sanctions confrontation. The global oil market, which was previously under pressure from oversupply and slowing demand, remains in a fragile equilibrium: Brent prices hover around the mid-$60 per barrel mark (approximately $64-66), reflecting a balance of opposing factors. The European gas market enters winter with record inventories: underground gas storage (UGS) facilities in the EU are over 95% full, providing a reliable buffer and keeping prices relatively moderate. Meanwhile, the global energy transition reaches new heights, with many countries reporting record generation from renewable sources, even though traditional resources continue to be necessary for the stability of energy systems. In Russia, following a spike in fuel prices, authorities are extending the ban on gasoline exports until the end of the year and limiting diesel exports in an effort to stabilize the domestic market. Below is a detailed review of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and commodity sectors as of the current date.
Oil Market: The Threat of Oversupply and Slowed Demand
Global oil prices continue to show relative stability at low levels. The North Sea benchmark Brent is trading around $65 per barrel, with US WTI near $60. Current prices are approximately 10% lower than a year ago, reflecting a gradual normalization of the market after the extreme peaks of the energy crisis in 2022-2023. The equilibrium is maintained by a combination of several factors:
- OPEC+ Production Increase. The oil alliance has been steadily increasing supply since the beginning of the year. By autumn 2025, the total production quota of key participants in the agreement has nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels; monthly easing of restrictions since spring has resulted in an increase in production by several million barrels per day. This increased supply has already manifested in a rise in global oil and petroleum product inventories, adding downward pressure on prices.
- Slower Demand Growth. The rate of growth in global oil consumption has significantly decreased. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts an increase in demand in 2025 of only about +0.7 million barrels per day (compared to +2.5 million in 2023). OPEC estimates demand growth at around +1.3 million b/d. A slowing economy, particularly in China's industrial sector, along with the effects of earlier high prices, have stimulated energy conservation and restrained consumer appetite.
- Geopolitics and Sanctions. The protracted conflict in Ukraine and lack of progress in negotiations mean that the sanctions pressure on the Russian oil and gas sector remains, and in some cases intensifies. At the end of October, the US administration expanded sanctions for the first time in a long time, including major Russian oil companies on the list. These measures are forcing trade flows to restructure: for example, Indian refineries are already signaling a readiness to reduce purchases of Russian oil to avoid secondary sanctions. On one hand, such moves increase uncertainty and create a risk premium in oil prices. On the other hand, global supplies continue to be redirected through alternative routes, and a direct shortage of raw materials in the market has not materialized. As a result, oil prices fluctuate within a narrow range, failing to gain momentum towards either a new rally or a collapse.
The cumulative impact of these factors creates a moderate oversupply compared to demand. The market is balancing on the brink of a surplus, and exchange prices are confidently remaining significantly below last year's highs. Many analysts warn that if current trends persist, the average annual price of Brent could drop to ~$50 per barrel by 2026. For now, market participants are taking a wait-and-see approach, monitoring both fundamental indicators (stocks, production levels) and political signals from OPEC+ and key powers.
Gas Market: Europe's Full Storage Ensures Price Stability
In the gas market, Europe remains in the spotlight, successfully completing the fuel injection season. EU countries have achieved a storage level of over 95% of their total capacity—significantly above the targeted level of 90% set for the start of winter and a record for recent years. Such a high buffer ahead of the heating season strengthens the region's energy security. By mid-November, in several Western European countries, the gas volume in UGS facilities is roughly comparable to the amount available a year ago at the height of winter, allowing for optimism regarding the upcoming cold months.
High inventories and stable liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies support a relatively calm price environment in the European gas market. Gas futures at the Dutch TTF hub fluctuate around €31–33/MWh (approximately $380 per thousand cubic meters)—significantly lower than the crisis peaks of 2022. Demand and supply in Europe are currently close to balance: moderate consumption and a warm start to autumn have allowed reserves to increase without price spikes. EU importers continue to actively purchase LNG from around the world—regasification terminals are operating at high capacity, receiving tankers from the US, Qatar, Africa, Australia, and other regions. This compensates for the cessation of pipeline supplies from Russia: as of January 2025, the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine has completely stopped, and the Yamal-Europe pipeline has been closed due to sanctions, leaving the "TurkStream" through the Balkans (around 50 million cubic meters per day, only a small fraction of previous volumes) as the only pipeline route for gas from the Russian Federation to the EU.
As a result of supply diversification, Europe enters winter almost independently of Russian gas. Nonetheless, risks remain: abnormally cold weather could increase fuel consumption, and competition with Asia for spot LNG shipments may intensify if the economies of China and other countries in the region accelerate. Nevertheless, for now, the balance in the European gas market appears stable, with prices relatively low. This situation is favorable for Europe's industry and energy sector in anticipation of peak demand periods, reducing the likelihood of a recurrence of the price shocks observed in recent history.
International Politics: Western Energy Partnerships and New Sanctions
Western countries are taking coordinated steps to restructure global energy ties amid geopolitical tensions. At the beginning of November, major agreements were reached at an energy forum in Athens aimed at reducing Russia's influence on the European gas market. For instance, American company ExxonMobil signed a contract for the exploration and production of natural gas in Greek waters with local partners. Simultaneously, Greece concluded its first long-term LNG import deal with the US: starting in 2030, the country will receive a minimum of 0.7 billion cubic meters of LNG annually with a prospect of increasing to 2 billion cubic meters. These deals fit into the broader EU strategy to replace Russian energy resources: in July, the EU and the US concluded a trade agreement whereby Europe committed to purchasing approximately $250 billion worth of American energy resources (oil, gas, nuclear fuel) over the next three years.
American officials openly declare their intention to eliminate "every last molecule" of Russian gas from the Western European markets. The new energy partnership is already yielding results: the European market has rapidly reoriented towards LNG, and countries like Greece are transforming from end-users of Russian gas into hubs for distributing American fuel across Europe. Simultaneously, the EU is tightening its own restrictions: a plan for a complete ban on Russian LNG imports by 2027 has been approved, and earlier, embargoes were imposed on oil and petroleum products from the Russian Federation. Thus, the energy map of Europe is changing rapidly—the share of the US, the Middle East, and other alternative suppliers is steadily increasing.
However, the intensified sanctions also have collateral effects for market participants. **India**, which has become the largest buyer of discounted Russian oil, now finds itself reevaluating its strategy. At the end of October, the US added Russian oil companies "Rosneft" and "Lukoil" to the sanctions list, complicating financial transactions with them. Indian refiners, to avoid losing access to the US financial system and falling under secondary sanctions, have expressed their readiness to significantly reduce purchases of crude from these companies. According to traders, some Indian refineries have already suspended long-term contracts with "Rosneft." These steps could reduce total imports of Russian oil into India (which reached record levels of 1.5–1.7 million b/d in 2025) and shift Indian demand towards Middle Eastern and African suppliers, albeit at higher prices. Thus, Washington's sanctions pressure is effectively forcing a redistribution of global oil flows: Russian companies are having to increase discounts and primarily focus on China, Turkey, and a number of other countries that have not joined the sanctions.
India and China: Adjusting Imports and Increasing Domestic Production
The largest Asian economies continue to balance between importing energy resources and developing domestic production. **India**, pressured by sanctions, is faced with a choice: maintain profitable purchases of cheap Russian oil or avoid ruptured trade relations with the West. Until recently, India was actively increasing its imports of Russian oil, benefiting from significant discounts (an average of $5–10 compared to Brent for Urals grade). This allowed Russian oil to account for about 34% of India's crude imports. However, the new US sanctions against "Rosneft" and "Lukoil," as well as the threat of high tariffs on Indian goods in the US, are forcing New Delhi to reduce its dependence on Russian supplies. Major Indian oil companies indicate their readiness to virtually eliminate procurement from sanctioned Russian producers by early 2026. In the short term, India is replacing the shortfall with imports from the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE) and Africa, although this results in a slight increase in raw material costs. Simultaneously, the Indian government is accelerating the program for developing its own fields: following the announcement in August of a national "deep-water mission" for oil and gas exploration, the state corporation ONGC has already begun drilling ultra-deep wells in the Andaman Sea. Initial reports indicate promising results, instilling hope for an increase in domestic production and reduced reliance on imports in the future.
**China**, in turn, remains the largest buyer of Russian hydrocarbons but is simultaneously focusing on increasing its domestic energy base. Beijing has not joined the Western sanctions, taking advantage of the situation to increase imports at reduced prices. Although by the end of the third quarter of 2025, China reduced its oil imports from Russia by approximately 8% compared to the record levels of the previous year (down to ~74 million tons over the 9-month period), Russia still ranks as the top oil supplier to China. Simultaneously, Chinese companies are actively purchasing raw materials from Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Brazil, and other countries, diversifying their sources. China's total oil imports for January-September rose by ~2.5% year-on-year, exceeding 420 million tons (about 11.3 million barrels per day). In addition to imports, China is increasing its domestic production: in the first three quarters of 2025, national producers extracted around 150 million tons of oil (+1-2% year-on-year) and about 170 billion cubic meters of natural gas (+5-6% year-on-year). Developing fields, especially offshore and hard-to-access ones, remains a strategic priority to reduce dependence on external supplies. Nonetheless, the scale of China's economy is such that, in the foreseeable future, the country will maintain its status as the largest importer of energy resources: experts estimate that even with an increase in production, China will need to cover at least 70% of its oil needs and around 40% of its gas needs through imports. Thus, India and China—two key consumers in Asia—are adapting their energy strategies to the new global reality, combining the search for advantageous import opportunities with efforts to develop domestic production.
Energy Transition: New Records for Renewables and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy continues to gain momentum in 2025. Many regions have achieved impressive milestones in renewable energy development. **In Europe**, by the end of 2024, the total electricity generation from solar and wind power plants for the first time exceeded generation from coal and gas-fired plants, and this trend persisted into 2025. The share of "green" energy in the EU's energy balance is steadily rising, displacing coal after a brief resurgence in 2022-2023. **In the United States**, renewable sources now account for over 30% of electricity production; total wind and solar generation at the beginning of 2025 has, for the first time, surpassed generation from coal facilities. **China** remains the world leader in installed renewable energy capacity: dozens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind turbines are brought online every year, breaking previous records. According to the IEA, total investments in the global energy sector in 2025 will exceed $3 trillion, with more than half of this funding directed toward developing "green" energy, modernizing electricity grids, and energy storage systems.
The rapid growth of solar and wind generation presents new challenges for energy infrastructure. Even with record output, renewables remain variable sources—generation depends on weather conditions and time of day. To ensure reliable energy supply, countries must maintain adequate traditional generation capacity. During periods of low renewable output—such as during calm weather or at night—gas and coal power plants are brought online to meet peak demand. During the last heating season, in certain European countries, coal plants had to temporarily increase their loads during windless weather, despite the environmental costs. In response to these challenges, governments and companies are actively investing in energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped-storage hydro plants) and "smart" grids capable of flexibly redistributing loads. Experts predict that by 2026-2027, renewable sources may become the leading source of generation globally, finally surpassing coal. However, in the coming years, there will still be a need for backup from traditional power plants serving as insurance against supply disruptions. Consequently, the global energy transition is accompanied by new records and investments but requires a delicate balance between implementing "green" technologies and maintaining energy system stability.
Coal Sector: High Demand in Asia Amid Stable Prices
Despite the accelerated development of renewables, the global coal market remains a significant segment of the energy balance. Demand for coal in 2025 remains high, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. **China**, the largest consumer and producer of coal, continues to burn vast quantities of fuel. Annual production from the Chinese coal industry exceeds 4 billion tons, covering most of domestic needs. Nevertheless, during peak demand periods (such as hot summers for air conditioning or cold winters for heating), even these enormous volumes are barely sufficient, and China periodically increases coal imports from countries like Indonesia, Russia, and Australia to avoid shortages. **India** is also increasing its coal consumption alongside economic growth and electrification: national coal production has hit record highs, exceeding 900 million tons per year, but the rapidly growing energy demand also requires increased imports. Other developing countries in Asia (Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan, Bangladesh) are commissioning new coal-fired power plants to meet population and industrial energy needs.
Prices for energy coal in 2025 have stabilized relative to sharp fluctuations seen during the global energy crisis. On the key Asian market (Australian Newcastle coal), prices are maintained in the range of $130–150 per ton, significantly lower than peaks over $400 reached in 2022. This price correction is attributed to the restoration of supply and demand balance: increased production in exporting countries (Australia, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa) and a slight decrease in demand in Europe and North America (where the transition away from coal has accelerated) have compensated for rising consumption in Asia. As a result, the global coal market has entered a phase of relative stability. Nevertheless, environmental constraints and investments in clean energy are gradually limiting the long-term growth prospects for coal demand. Global coal consumption is expected to plateau in the coming years and then begin to slowly decline as decarbonization goals are pursued in many countries. For now, however, coal continues to play a significant role, providing base load generation and industrial production, especially in developing economies.
The Russian Fuel Market: Extension of Export Restrictions to Stabilize Prices
In the domestic oil products market of Russia, a set of measures is being implemented in the second half of 2025 to normalize the pricing situation. In September-October, there was a slight decline in wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel fuel after a surge in prices over the past summer. The Russian government, aiming to prevent shortages and another price surge, extended temporary restrictions on fuel exports. Specifically, the previously imposed ban on the export of motor gasoline for all manufacturers and trade intermediaries was initially extended through September and then renewed until the end of the current year. Simultaneously, restrictions on the export of diesel fuel for independent traders without their own production were introduced in the fall—this measure aims to close loopholes for exporting scarce fuel abroad. According to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, these steps are intended to ensure priority supplies to the domestic market with oil products.
Thanks to the adopted package of decisions, the situation at gas stations has stabilized significantly. Exchange prices for gasoline and diesel have retreated from peak values, and retail prices are rising at moderate rates—around 5-6% since the beginning of the year, which is close to overall inflation. Fuel stations across the country are well-stocked, coinciding with the completion of the harvest and the onset of the winter season. The government has also increased subsidized fuel volumes for the domestic market and tightened controls over oil product sales to prevent a recurrence of sharp price spikes experienced in the spring and summer. Additionally, long-term measures are being discussed—such as raising export duties and adjusting the damping mechanism—to create a more sustainable supply system for the domestic market.
As a result of the efforts made, the domestic fuel market in the Russian Federation has entered the winter period in a relatively balanced state. Authorities have successfully quelled pricing tensions and created a buffer of fuel reserves. Market participants note that further price dynamics will depend on the global market situation (exchange rate of the ruble, oil prices) and the discipline in implementing imposed restrictions. Nevertheless, the Russian fuel sector is currently showing signs of stabilization, which is especially important for the economy and the population in a season of increased energy consumption.
