Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of December 10, 2025: Price Dynamics, Sanction Pressures, Commodity Market Trends, Fuel Production, Energy Policy, and Global Trends.
The current events in the fuel and energy sector (TEK) as of December 10, 2025, draw attention from investors and market participants due to their ambiguity. The confrontation between Russia and the West continues amid sanctions pressure: there has been no direct easing of restrictions; on the contrary, G7 and EU countries are discussing new tightening measures against the Russian oil and gas sector at the beginning of 2026. The global oil market maintains a fragile equilibrium: Brent prices hover around the mid-$60 per barrel range, reflecting the balance between rising supply and weakening demand. The European gas market enters winter relatively confidently, with underground gas storage (UGS) in the EU over 75% full as of early December, providing a buffer and keeping prices at a moderate level. The global energy transition continues to accelerate: many regions are recording record levels of electricity generation from renewable sources (RES), although countries still rely on traditional resources for the reliability of their energy systems. In Russia, following an autumn spike in prices, authorities continue to implement measures to stabilize the internal fuel market. Below is a detailed overview of the key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and commodity sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Cautious Production Management Amid Oversupply Risks
Global oil prices remain relatively stable under the influence of several fundamental factors. North Sea Brent crude is trading around $62–64 per barrel, while US WTI is in the $58–60 range. Current prices are approximately 10% lower than last year's levels, reflecting a gradual market correction following the price peaks of 2022–2023. Price dynamics are influenced by several key trends:
- Rising OPEC+ Production: The oil alliance has gradually increased its market supply throughout 2025. In December, the production quotas for key participants in the agreement were raised by an additional 137,000 barrels per day (as in the previous two months). However, it was decided to pause production increases for the first quarter of 2026 to prevent an oversupply situation. From April to November, the total OPEC+ quota grew by approximately 2.9 million barrels/day, leading to increased global oil and petroleum product inventories.
- Slowing Demand Growth: Global oil consumption is growing at a more moderate pace. According to revised estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA), demand growth for oil in 2025 is expected to be about 0.7 million barrels/day (for comparison, it exceeded 2.5 million in 2023). Even OPEC's forecasts have become more subdued, with the cartel expecting an increase in demand of about 1.1–1.3 million barrels/day for 2025. Factors include a slowdown in the global economy and the effects of high prices in previous years encouraging energy conservation. An additional factor is the slowdown in industrial growth in China, limiting the appetite of the world's second-largest oil consumer.
- Sanctions and Uncertainty: Sanctions pressure creates conflicting effects in the market. On one hand, new Western restrictions – such as US and UK sanctions against major Russian oil companies – complicate production growth in Russia, maintaining the risk of shortages for certain types of crude. On the other hand, Russian supplies continue to be redirected to Asia at discounted prices, softening the overall impact of sanctions on global supply. Moreover, certain optimistic signals from investors have been provided by indications of progress in trade negotiations between the US and major partners, improving sentiment in the oil market.
Overall, the influence of these factors creates a nearly balanced market state: oil supply slightly exceeds demand, preventing prices from rallying once again. Market quotes remain significantly below the highs of previous years. A number of analysts believe that if current trends persist, the average price of Brent in 2026 could drop to the $50–55 per barrel range.
Gas Market: Comfortable Reserves in Europe and Moderate Prices
In the gas market, the primary focus remains on Europe. EU countries entered the winter period with historically high gas reserves: by early November, European UGS was filled to almost 98% of total capacity, and by the first decade of December, storage levels remain at a comfortable ~75%. This is significantly above the average levels of previous years and provides a reliable buffer against cold weather. Meanwhile, gas exchange prices remain relatively low: January futures at the TTF hub are trading around €27–28/MWh (approximately $340 per thousand cubic meters), reflecting a balance of supply and demand. The continuing influx of liquefied natural gas (LNG) enhances market stability: by the end of 2025, total LNG imports to Europe could set a new record, compensating for the decrease in pipeline gas supplies. A potential risk factor remains possible cold snaps or increased competition for LNG from Asia; however, the current situation is favorable for consumers. Moderate gas prices are contributing to a decrease in costs for industry and energy sectors in Europe as winter begins.
International Politics: Sanctions Without Easing and New Measures Approaching
Despite some diplomatic contact, there has been no noticeable easing of sanctions policy in the oil and gas sector. On the contrary, Western countries are signaling a readiness to tighten restrictions. In December, G7 and EU countries discussed a new package of sanctions against Moscow. According to sources, discussions are underway about a complete ban on maritime transportation of Russian oil starting in 2026, which could replace the existing price cap of $60 per barrel. The goal of such measures is to further reduce export revenues for Russia. US authorities also imposed additional sanctions against Russian oil giants late in the autumn, complicating their access to technology and financing. As a result, uncertainty for the sector remains: on the one hand, there have been no serious supply disruptions yet, thanks to the restructuring of logistics chains; on the other hand, the prospect of new restrictions encourages market participants to exercise caution.
A positive aspect remains the preservation of dialogue channels. Contacts between relevant authorities in Russia and several Asian countries are continuing, allowing for the redirection of energy flows and mitigating the impact of sanctions. Additionally, there is a noticeable improvement in trade relations on a global level: a reduction in tensions between major economies (for example, the gradual resolution of trade disputes between the US and China) supports investor confidence and demand for energy resources. In the coming months, market attention will be focused on the development of the sanctions situation: the implementation of new restrictions or, conversely, a pause in sanctions pressure will significantly impact sentiments and long-term strategies of energy companies.
Asia: Major Consumers Balance Imports and Domestic Production
- India: Facing sustained sanctions background, New Delhi seeks to secure its energy balance. A sharp refusal to import Russian oil and gas is unacceptable for the country, so Indian authorities continue to procure Russian energy resources, negotiating favorable terms. Russian companies provide Indian refineries with significant discounts to Brent prices (estimated at around $4-6 per barrel for Urals), allowing India to increase imports of oil and petroleum products to satisfy domestic demand. At the same time, India is focusing on developing its own resource base: as part of its national program for exploring deepwater fields, the state-owned company ONGC is conducting exploratory drilling in the Andaman Sea, with initial results being promising. Success in discovering new oil and gas reserves could potentially reduce the country's dependence on external supplies.
- China: The largest economy in Asia continues to adhere to a multi-vector strategy. On one hand, China remains a leading buyer of Russian oil and gas, taking advantage of the situation to replenish reserves at acceptable prices. In 2024, China imported about 213 million tons of oil and 246 billion cubic meters of natural gas (an increase of 1.8% and 6.2%, respectively, from the previous year), and in 2025, import volumes remained at a high level with slight increases. On the other hand, Beijing is boosting domestic production: from January to October 2025, China produced approximately 200 million tons of oil (+1.2% YoY) and 320 billion cubic meters of gas (+5.8% YoY). Although the share of domestic production is rising, the country is still reliant on imports for about 70% of its oil and 40% of its gas. To improve energy security, China is investing in the development of fields, technologies to enhance oil recovery, and expanding storage infrastructure. Thus, India and China—key players in the Asian region—continue to play a dual role in energy markets, combining active energy resource imports with measures to increase domestic production.
Energy Transition: RES Records and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to low-carbon energy reached new heights in 2025. Many countries reported record levels of electricity generation from renewable sources—solar and wind power plants are setting new generation maximums. In the European Union, for the first time, the combined share of solar and wind generation exceeded that of electricity produced at coal and gas power plants, continuing the trend of recent years of displacing fossil fuels. In the United States, the share of renewable sources in total generation consistently exceeds 30%, and generation from wind and solar surpassed that of coal-fired power plants for the first time this year. China, a leader in RES scale, added dozens of gigawatts of new capacity—over 100 GW of solar panels and wind turbines were installed in 2025, setting new national records. According to the IEA, total investments in the global energy sector surpassed $3 trillion in 2025, with over half of these funds directed towards RES projects, grid modernization, and energy storage systems.
At the same time, ensuring the stability of energy systems still requires the participation of traditional generation types. The increasing share of RES creates challenges for the energy sector: during periods when solar or wind generation is low, backup capacity is needed. In many countries, during peak demand times and adverse weather conditions, gas and even coal-fired power plants are brought back online. For example, some European states temporarily increased production at coal-fired plants during calm periods last winter, despite environmental costs. Governments and companies are rapidly developing energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped-storage hydroelectric plants) and smart grids to enhance flexibility and reliability of energy supply. Experts forecast that by the end of the decade, renewable sources could take the lead globally in electricity generation, but during this transition period, the need for support from gas and other traditional plants will remain. Thus, the energy transition is steadily advancing, although the balance between "green" technologies and traditional resources remains critically important for the stability of the sector.
Coal: Market Stabilization Amid Sustained Demand
The global coal market in 2025 exhibits relative stability amid still-high demand. Despite the accelerated development of renewable energy, coal consumption remains significant, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. China maintains coal usage at near-record levels—domestically generating over 4 billion tons of coal yearly, with national production (about 4.4 billion tons per year) barely meeting internal needs. India, possessing large reserves, is also actively utilizing coal: over 70% of electricity in the country is generated at coal-fired plants, and absolute coal consumption is rising alongside the economy. Other developing countries in Asia (Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.) are implementing projects for new coal plants to meet the growing demand for electricity.
Supply in the global coal market is adapting to high demand. Major exporters—Indonesia, Australia, Russia, South Africa—in recent years have increased production and export of thermal coal, allowing prices to remain within a moderate range after the extreme spikes of 2022. In 2025, prices for thermal coal fluctuate around $100–120 per ton, reflecting a balance between consumer and producer interests. Buyers obtain fuel at relatively acceptable prices, while mining companies secure stable sales with adequate profits. Many countries announce long-term plans to reduce coal's share for climate reasons, but in the next 5–10 years, it will remain a crucial energy source for billions of people, particularly in Asia. Thus, the coal industry is experiencing a period of relative equilibrium: demand is steadily high, prices are moderate, and despite climate agendas, coal remains among the key pillars of global energy.
Russian Fuel Market: Results of Measures to Curb Prices
In the Russian domestic fuel market, interim results of the emergency measures taken are being summarized as the year comes to a close. In autumn 2025, following a spike in wholesale gasoline prices to record levels, the government took a series of steps to normalize the situation:
- Export Restrictions on Fuel: The full ban on the export of gasoline and diesel, introduced in September, was extended until early October and then gradually relaxed for major refineries. As the market balance improved, the largest oil refineries were allowed to resume some export shipments, while restrictions remained in place for independent traders and smaller refineries.
- Control over Resource Distribution: The reason for the supply deficit was the unplanned shutdown of several refineries (accidents and drone attacks disrupted operations at major plants, reducing fuel output). Authorities intensified oversight of the distribution of petroleum products in the domestic market—producers were instructed to prioritize meeting domestic consumer needs, and practices of speculative fuel sales among wholesalers, which had been driving up prices, were curtailed. The Ministry of Energy, the Federal Antimonopoly Service, and the St. Petersburg Exchange are jointly developing a transition to long-term direct contracts between refineries and distribution companies to eliminate intermediaries from the supply chain.
- Subsidies and Dampers: The government continued to provide financial support to the sector. The reverse excise tax mechanism on oil (the so-called "damper") and direct subsidies to oil refiners partially compensated them for lost revenues from domestic fuel sales, encouraging them to direct a larger volume of petroleum products to the domestic market.
The complex of measures implemented helped prevent acute fuel shortages — service stations across the country are supplied with gasoline and diesel fuel. However, it was impossible to fully curb price increases: according to Rosstat, by early December, retail gasoline prices in Russia rose approximately 12% since the beginning of the year, while overall inflation stood at about 5%. Thus, fuel prices have been increasing twice as fast as the overall consumer basket, indicating continued market pressure. Authorities state that they will continue to keep the situation under control: if necessary, export restrictions may be strengthened again, and support for the sector is expected to continue. Already in December, a task force led by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak is discussing additional measures—from adjusting the damper to replenishing fuel reserves—to prevent a recurrence of price spikes. The government is focused on ensuring a stable supply of petroleum products to the domestic market and keeping prices for end consumers within acceptable limits, minimizing risks to the economy and social sphere.
