Oil and Gas News and Energy — Tuesday, December 23, 2025: Oil at Minimum Levels, Hopes for Peace, Gas Market Stable
Current events in the global fuel and energy complex (TEC) as of December 23, 2025 attract the attention of investors and market participants with mixed signals. On the diplomatic front, there are signs of progress: negotiations involving the US, EU, and Ukraine instill cautious optimism about a potential ceasefire in the protracted conflict. However, no concrete agreements have been reached yet, and the strict sanctions regime in the energy sector remains in effect.
The global oil market continues to be under pressure from excess supply and weakened demand. Benchmark Brent crude prices have fallen to around $60 per barrel – the lowest level since 2021. This indicates the formation of a surplus of crude oil in the market. In contrast, the European gas market demonstrates resilience: even at the peak of winter demand, gas storage facilities in the EU are filled to approximately 68%, while stable supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline gas keep prices at a moderate level significantly lower than last year's figures.
Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum. Many countries are setting new records for electricity generation from renewable sources (RES), although for the reliability of energy systems, traditional coal and gas power plants still play an important role. In Russia, after a summer spike in fuel prices, authorities took stringent measures (including extending the ban on the export of oil products), which helped stabilize the situation in the domestic market. Below is a detailed overview of the key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of the current date.
Oil Prices and OPEC+ Strategy
The oil market continues to experience declining prices: Brent is holding around $60 per barrel, while WTI is at around $55, marking the lowest level in nearly four years. Investors note that a combination of fundamental factors is preventing prices from rising – on the contrary, it supports a bearish trend.
- Supply Growth: Increased production by both OPEC+ countries and independent producers has resulted in the emergence of excess volumes of oil. Since spring 2025, the total output of OPEC+ countries has increased by almost 3 million barrels per day, while other exporters have also reached record levels, creating a surplus of crude on the market.
- Hope for Peace: Progress in negotiations to resolve the situation in Ukraine has generated expectations of easing sanctions and the full return of Russian oil volumes to the global market. This factor additionally weighs on prices, being factored into market expectations.
- OPEC+ Policy: After several months of gradual production increases, OPEC+ participants decided to suspend further supply growth in Q1 2026 to avoid overproduction. At its December meeting, the alliance agreed to only a symbolic increase in quotas (+137,000 bbl/day), and is prepared to act based on market conditions. Key exporters have stated their commitment to market stability and are ready to cut production again if prices fall below acceptable levels (around $50 per barrel).
The cumulative impact of these factors keeps the global oil market in a state of moderate surplus. Geopolitical incidents and new restrictions currently only cause short-term price fluctuations, without altering the overall downward trend. Market participants are awaiting new signals – both from the progress of diplomatic efforts and from OPEC+ actions – that could alter the risk balance for oil prices.
Natural Gas and LNG Market
The European gas market has entered the winter season with relative confidence. Gas storage facilities in the EU are over two-thirds full, minimizing the risk of shortages even during peak demand periods. Active LNG imports have allowed for the compensation of nearly complete interruption of direct pipeline supplies from Russia, stabilizing gas prices at levels significantly below the crisis peaks of 2022, easing the burden on industry and consumers alike.
- Record LNG Imports: In 2025, Europe imported around 284 billion cubic meters of liquefied gas – a historical maximum. The key supplier was the US (accounting for up to 60% of the total), with significant quantities also arriving from Qatar, Africa, and other regions.
- Abandonment of Russian Gas: The European Union is formalizing plans to completely stop importing Russian gas by 2027. Beginning in early 2026, a ban on purchasing Russian LNG on the spot market will take effect, forcing EU countries to fully pivot to alternative supply sources.
On a global scale, demand for gas remains stable, primarily due to Asian markets; however, competition among suppliers is intensifying. Countries in the Middle East and North Africa are actively investing in new LNG projects, hoping to carve out a niche in the growing market. At the same time, the expansion of gas exports from the US and Australia is creating an oversupply, keeping global prices within moderate bounds.
Renewable Energy: Record Growth
2025 has been a landmark year for renewable energy. There has been unprecedented growth in the installation of new solar and wind generation capacity worldwide. According to industry reports, during the first half of 2025, the volume of installed solar and wind power plants increased by more than 60% compared to the same period last year. For the first time in history, electricity generation from RES has exceeded that from coal-fired plants (when measured over a six-month period). Total global investments in "clean" energy in 2025 have reached around $2 trillion; however, even record growth rates are insufficient to meet climate targets – further investments and upgrades to electrical grids are needed.
China stands out for its success, becoming the locomotive of the energy transition. By introducing hundreds of gigawatts of new solar and wind plants, China managed to curb CO2 emissions in 2025, despite an increase in energy consumption. China's experience shows that large-scale investments in RES can simultaneously meet rising electricity demand while reducing the carbon footprint of the economy.
Coal Sector: Demand Peak
Global demand for coal in 2025 reached an all-time high, although growth rates have virtually stalled. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global coal consumption increased by only 0.5% – to approximately 8.85 billion tons, representing a record volume. A prolonged plateau phase is projected going forward, with a gradual decline expected by 2030. Coal continues to be the largest fuel for electricity generation worldwide, but its share has started to decrease due to competition from alternative energy sources.
- China: In the largest consumer of coal, China (accounting for about half of global demand), consumption stabilized in 2025. A gradual decrease in coal use is expected by the end of the decade as new RES capacity comes online.
- India: Thanks to a record volume of hydroelectric power generation in 2025, India has seen a temporary reduction in coal consumption for the first time in years.
- USA: The United States has observed a slight increase in coal burning amid high gas prices and government support measures to extend the operation of coal power plants.
Thus, the peak of global coal demand is nearing. The future dynamics of the industry will depend on the pace of the energy transition in the largest economies. As the development of RES and other clean sources accelerates, coal is expected to be gradually displaced from the fuel mix.
Oil Products and Refining: High Margins
The oil products market shows high profitability for refineries (refining plants) by the end of 2025. Global refining margins (known as "crack spreads") have risen to multi-year highs. This is due to several factors: sanctions that reduced oil product exports from Russia, the closure of several major refineries in Europe and the US for maintenance, and delays in bringing new refining capacity online in the Middle East and Africa. The European diesel market remains particularly profitable: the diesel refining margin in Europe has risen to levels not seen since 2023, indicating a structural deficit of this type of fuel.
In response, refiners are increasing capacity utilization everywhere, aiming to take advantage of favorable conditions. Major oil companies have reported sharp increases in profits in the downstream segment (refining and sales) due to high gasoline and diesel prices. According to the IEA, European refineries significantly ramped up crude oil processing in the second half of 2025 by several hundred thousand barrels per day due to record margin levels. Analysts note that without new capacity coming online in Europe and North America, the fuel deficit may persist, supporting high margins into 2026.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: Impact on Markets
Geopolitical factors continue to significantly influence raw material markets. Sanction regimes against the oil and gas sector remain in place, and recent events demonstrate strict compliance with restrictions. In December, the US intercepted a tanker carrying oil off the coast of Venezuela, thwarting attempts to circumvent sanctions. At the same time, Washington has intensified pressure on the "shadow fleet" transporting Iranian oil: despite new bans, exports from Iran in 2025 reached a multi-year high due to active deliveries to Asia. Russian oil and oil product exports have been completely redirected to alternative markets (China, India, Middle East), but pricing limitations and EU embargoes continue to squeeze the sector's revenues. The European Union is also tightening restrictive measures: in addition to the existing oil embargo, a ban on Russian LNG imports will take effect in early 2026 – thus, Europe is logically completing its rejection of Russian energy carriers.
In this context, market participants are factoring in elevated geopolitical risks and premiums into price forecasts. Any signals of potential easing of the sanctions regime or diplomatic progress could significantly impact investor sentiment and price dynamics. For now, however, oil and gas companies are adapting to the new flow structures and prices – diversifying logistics and redirecting towards regions less subject to sanction pressure.
Investments and Projects: Looking Ahead
Despite market volatility, substantial investments continue in the energy sector. Middle Eastern countries are increasing investments in oil and gas production: national companies are expanding production capacities to maintain their market share in the long term. In particular, in the UAE, the state corporation ADNOC has secured financing of around $11 billion for gas production increase projects. Concurrently, leading exporters like Qatar and the US are implementing programs to expand LNG terminals, anticipating further growth in global demand for "blue fuel."
Significant funds are also being directed towards "green" energy. Global investments in renewable sources are growing at an accelerated pace: corporations are investing capital in constructing solar and wind farms, as well as energy storage facilities. However, even with these record-high growth rates, more serious efforts and resources are needed to achieve decarbonization goals. New technologies – such as hydrogen energy and industrial energy storage – are becoming increasingly enticing investment directions. It is anticipated that 2026 will bring new mergers and acquisitions within the sector, as well as the launch of major projects in both the traditional oil and gas sector and in RES.
