Global Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector News as of January 26, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, and Oil Products. An Analysis of Key Events and Trends in the Global Fuel and Energy Sector for Investors and Market Participants.
Current events in the fuel and energy sector (FES) as of January 26, 2026, are marked by a combination of new seasonal challenges and ongoing geopolitical tensions, amid a relatively balanced situation in commodity markets. The cold weather in Europe is testing the capabilities of the energy system, rapidly increasing demand for gas and putting pressure on fuel reserves. At the same time, the global oil market continues to grapple with an oversupply, although various risks and conflicts maintain a cautious sentiment among participants. Negotiations for peace in Ukraine provide faint hope for easing sanctions disputes, though major restrictions remain in place. Meanwhile, investments in hydrocarbon production and the development of green energy remain at high levels, reflecting countries’ ambitions to ensure energy security and accelerate the transition to clean energy. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and commodity sectors as of the current date.
Global Oil Market: Overproduction and Tepid Demand Pressuring Prices
Global oil prices at the end of January remain under moderate downward pressure, despite recent short-term spikes. The benchmark Brent blend is trading around $64-67 per barrel, while U.S. WTI is hovering around $59-61, roughly 15% lower than levels a year ago. Thus, the market maintains relative stability following a post-crisis normalization of prices, although the balance remains fragile. Key factors influencing the oil market include:
- OPEC+ Policy: The oil alliance, after a prolonged period of production increases, has paused for the first time. At the meeting at the end of 2025, OPEC+ countries decided to maintain total production at current levels, canceling a planned increase in quotas for Q1 2026. This decision was made amid signs of an oil surplus in the market and led to a slight price rise at the beginning of the year. However, OPEC+’s share of global supplies remains below previous highs, as the alliance has not fully restored lost positions during the quota hikes.
- Increasing Non-OPEC Production: Alongside OPEC+ actions, other producers continue to boost supply. Independent companies in the U.S. have ramped up shale production to record levels of approximately 13 million barrels per day, close to historic highs. Significant contributions to the growth of global supplies come from new projects in Latin America (Brazil, Guyana) and the recovery of production in Canada. As a result, global oil production is outpacing demand, forming excess inventories and putting pressure on oil and petroleum product prices.
- Global Demand: Oil consumption is increasing at a much slower pace than in previous years. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global demand growth in 2026 is expected to be around +0.9 million barrels per day (less than +1%), comparable to last year’s figures and significantly lower than the 2023 pace. OPEC forecasts a similar trend (around +1.3 million barrels per day). The reasons for this tempered growth include a slowdown in the global economy (particularly a decline in GDP growth in China and other major consumers) and energy-saving measures. High prices in previous years have prompted efficiency improvements and a shift towards alternative sources, which also limits market appetites.
- Geopolitics and Finance: Geopolitical events continue to create a backdrop for price fluctuations, but their impact is mitigated by oversupply. This winter, the situation in the Middle East has become more severe: threats of military conflict surrounding Iran triggered a brief price surge, and in early January, sudden political changes in Venezuela led to a temporary halt in exports from that country. Additionally, some regions experienced disruptions—such as drone attacks and technical issues that reduced output in Kazakhstan. However, the global market has reacted relatively calmly to these events: an oversupply and spare capacity from other producers have helped to offset local losses. An additional stabilizing factor is the expectation of easing monetary policies in the U.S. and Europe in case of further economic slowdown, supporting investor optimism and reducing the pressure of a strong dollar on commodities. At the same time, the sanctions standoff between Russia and the West remains unresolved: despite cautious optimism for possible peaceful settlement in Ukraine, existing restrictions on Russian oil and petroleum products remain in effect. Russian Urals oil continues to be sold at a significant discount (approximately $40 per barrel, well below Brent quotes), reflecting export limitations and price caps. Overall, a combination of factors keeps oil quotes within a narrow range, and the market requires a clear impetus—either a substantial reduction in production or a noticeable rise in demand—to escape its state of equilibrium.
European Gas Market: Cold Weather Reduces Stocks and Triggers Price Volatility
The gas sector in Europe has entered 2026 marked by a sharp shift in sentiment—from an abundance of fuel to grappling with the impacts of the cold. The European Union began winter with unprecedentedly high gas stocks in underground storage facilities (USF): by early January, they were over 90% full, which previously allowed exchange prices to drop to minimal levels for the past year (the price of gas at the TTF hub briefly fell to around $330 per 1,000 m3, or approximately €28 per MWh). However, prolonged cold weather engulfing much of Europe in January sharply increased energy demand. Gas withdrawals from storage reached record levels—by January 21, stocks had decreased to about 47% capacity, significantly below the average levels of previous years for this date. Gas prices surged: since the beginning of the month, TTF quotes have jumped about 30%, rising from approximately $34 (€29) to ~$45 (≈€39) per MWh. This is the sharpest January increase in the past five years, driven by a combination of weather factors and global market conditions. Nevertheless, even with this spike, European prices remain significantly lower than peak values from the crisis winter of 2021-2022, and high stocks in repositories continue to shield the region from shortages. The main trends affecting the gas market include:
- Minimization of Russian Imports: EU countries have virtually ceased imports of Russian pipeline gas over the past year. Russia's share in European imports has dropped to 10-15% (down from over 40% before 2022). Shortfall volumes are being successfully replaced through alternative channels: liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from the U.S., Qatar, African and Middle Eastern countries are fully operational. The commissioning of new regasification terminals (in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and other countries) has expanded infrastructure capabilities to receive LNG. As a result, Europe has diversified its sources and managed to accumulate a large gas reserve before winter, independent of Gazprom.
- U.S.-EU LNG Agreement: A large long-term deal between Washington and Brussels for U.S. LNG supplies worth up to $750 billion in 2026-2028 is currently being implemented slowly. Much of this is due to market conditions: amid low prices last autumn, European importers purchased lower volumes than expected as part of the agreements. For example, from September to December 2025, gas supplies from the U.S. to the EU were estimated at about $29.6 billion, significantly lagging behind stated annual goals. Cheap gas in the spot market reduced the economic motivation for choosing fixed long-term volumes. However, with prices recovering this winter, increased activity in supply contracts can be expected—demand for American LNG is rising once again, and market participants are revisiting procurement strategies to ensure storage facilities are filled ahead of the next heating season.
- Weather Factor: The current situation has demonstrated that even record stocks are insufficient under extreme weather conditions. Abnormally cold weather in several regions of the Northern Hemisphere (Europe, North America, parts of Asia) has led to a synchronous increase in gas demand, rapidly depleting stocks. If the cold persists, new price spikes are possible—in particular, traders have shifted to “bullish” sentiments, actively buying gas futures in anticipation of further price increases. Meanwhile, Europe’s infrastructure is operating under increased strain: gas transportation operators have increased withdrawals from USFs, and LNG suppliers are hastily redirecting tankers to European terminals, despite fierce competition with Asian consumers. An additional factor is environmental restrictions: stringent CO2 emission standards are limiting the ability to increase domestic gas production in several EU countries. This means that during prolonged cold spells, Europe will be forced to rely on imports and existing stocks, thus supporting market volatility.
- Demand in Asia: Asian countries are also experiencing a winter spike in gas consumption, competing with Europe for LNG. China and India are actively increasing LNG purchases to cover peak needs: northern provinces of China are experiencing heightened heating demand, while India is buying additional gas supplies for electricity generation. At the same time, China continues to ramp up its own natural gas production (in 2025, national gas production rose by approximately 6%, reaching new record levels), but this is insufficient to fully meet domestic demand; hence, China remains the world’s largest gas importer. India, in turn, is taking advantage of the sanctions market and increasing its purchases of cheap Russian LNG alongside oil, strengthening its energy security and indirectly supporting global demand. Overall, the recovery in demand in Asia this winter exacerbates the pressure on the global gas market, yet high European stocks and flexible supply routes have helped to avoid severe shortages.
International Environment: Sanctions Standoff and New Risks for Energy
Geopolitical factors continue to significantly impact the global energy landscape. In the relationships between Russia and the West, a fragile balance is observed: on one hand, cautious negotiations for resolving the Ukrainian conflict began at the end of 2025, generating optimism regarding possible partial relief from sanctions. As a result, for example, the European Union is still postponing the introduction of new stringent measures (another sanctions package) in anticipation of diplomatic movements. Certain dialogue channels, such as discussions about grain deals and prisoner exchanges, are being maintained, signaling both sides' desire to avoid further escalation. On the other hand, there have not yet been any substantive breakthroughs: the main economic restrictions against the Russian energy sector remain in force, and Washington and Brussels emphasize their readiness to intensify pressure should progress on the political track stall. Investors are accounting for these risks: any information about the progress of negotiations or potential new sanctions is instantly reflected in oil and gas contract quotes, forcing the market to navigate between hopes for de-escalation and fears of exacerbating confrontation.
Apart from the Russian-Western front, other geopolitical events have also come to the fore that could influence the energy sector. In early January, a political crisis erupted in Venezuela: President Nicolás Maduro was ousted amidst domestic unrest with indirect support from the U.S. This led to a temporary reduction in Venezuelan oil exports as infrastructure and deliveries became disorganized. Washington has urged international companies to invest in the recovery of Venezuela’s oil sector, hoping for increased global supply from this country in the long term, but in the short term, the market has encountered yet another uncertainty factor. Concurrently, tensions in the Middle East have escalated: sharp rhetoric and threats exchanged between the U.S. and Iran (against the backdrop of disputes surrounding Tehran’s nuclear program) have triggered concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies from the Persian Gulf region. Although a direct military confrontation has been avoided, and production in Middle Eastern fields continues without significant disruptions, the risk premium in prices has slightly increased. Additionally, instability persists in several African countries, capable of affecting energy resource production (for example, internal conflicts in Nigeria and Libya periodically reduce oil exports). Thus, the international situation at the beginning of 2026 is characterized by an elevated level of uncertainty. So far, the global energy market is sufficiently “diluted” by excess reserves to absorb individual shocks, but further escalation of conflicts or failure of diplomatic efforts could alter this balance and lead to new price spikes. Market participants are closely monitoring news from the geopolitical front, recognizing that political decisions can quickly reshape the power dynamics on the global energy map.
Asia: Growth in Domestic Production in China and Steady Energy Resource Imports in India
- China: As the largest economy in Asia, China is confidently ramping up its domestic hydrocarbon production, setting new records. In 2025, oil production in the PRC exceeded 4.3 million barrels per day, and annual gas production reached a historic high (an increase of about +6% compared to the previous year). Beijing is actively investing in enhancing oil refining capacities (refineries) and developing electricity generation, including constructing new thermal power plants and renewable energy facilities, aiming to reduce reliance on imports. At the same time, the government is funding exploration of new fields and technologies to increase oil recovery, ensuring long-term energy security. The slowdown in economic growth observed in China in 2025 resulted in only moderate growth in domestic energy demand. Nonetheless, China remains the world’s largest importer of oil and gas, continuing to purchase significant volumes of raw materials from abroad to meet its substantial needs.
- India: As the second-most populous country in the world, India continues to ensure its economy has access to affordable energy resources, balancing external pressures and national interests. Despite calls from the U.S. to reduce cooperation with Russia and imposed restrictions by Western countries, Indian refineries continue to actively purchase Russian oil. In December 2025, oil supplies from Russia to India were estimated at over 1.2 million barrels per day (after a record high of approximately 1.77 million in November, when Indian refiners rushed to secure cheap raw materials before new sanctions came into effect). Consequently, Russia has solidified its status as a key supplier in the Indian market, providing raw materials at a substantial discount. Prime Minister Narendra Modi held talks with President Vladimir Putin at the end of the year, reaffirming the commitment to a long-term energy partnership between the two countries. Meanwhile, India is striving to develop its own production: national programs for exploring deepwater oil and gas fields are being implemented, and coal extraction for energy needs is being increased. However, domestic production is not growing fast enough to meet rising demand, meaning New Delhi will continue to rely on imports, utilizing advantageous opportunities in the global market (including purchases of cheap energy resources from sanctioned suppliers) to fulfill its economic needs.
- Southeast Asia: Countries in this region, whose economies require inexpensive electricity for industrial growth, continue to leverage traditional energy resources, primarily coal. Despite global environmental trends, 2025 saw further expansion of coal generation in Southeast Asia. New coal-fired power plants are being launched in Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, and several other nations, capable of meeting the increasing electricity demand. The governments of these countries indicate that the high need for affordable and reliable energy does not yet allow for a complete shift away from coal, even with ongoing developments in renewable energy. Meanwhile, infrastructure modernization is underway, and plans for “greening” energy are being discussed for the future; however, in the coming years, coal will retain a key role in the region's energy balance. In addition to coal, Southeast Asian countries are also increasing LNG imports to diversify energy sources (for example, Thailand and Bangladesh are actively building LNG terminals). Thus, the Asian continent, in general, combines the growth of domestic production with increased imports, remaining a primary driver of global demand for traditional energy resources.
Renewable Energy: Record Global Investments and Integration into Energy Systems
The global energy transition continues to gain momentum, setting new benchmarks. By the end of 2025, the world introduced a record amount of renewable energy capacity—approximately 750 GW of new installations (including solar, wind, and other "green" generation). Investments in clean energy reached historical highs, exceeding $2 trillion for the year, reflecting sustained interest from governments and businesses in this sector. New solar power stations (SPS) and wind farms (WF) provide an increasingly significant share of electricity generation in different countries. For example, preliminary data indicates that in the European Union in 2025, total generation from solar and wind for the first time surpassed electricity generation from coal-fired power plants, reinforcing a shift that emerged following the crisis of 2022-2023. Similar trends are observed in other regions: in the U.S., renewable sources generated over 30% of electricity in early 2025, while in China, the annual installation of new renewable energy capacities set another record. Concurrently, the mass adoption of "green" energy poses several practical challenges for energy systems, as was evident last year. Key characteristics of the current phase of the energy transition include:
- Need for Reserves and Hybrid Solutions: Despite robust growth in the share of renewable energy, traditional sources—coal, gas, and nuclear power—remain essential elements of the energy balance to ensure stability. Experts estimate that global energy consumption in 2025 was still approximately 80% covered by fossil fuels. The issue of the variability of renewable sources (when the sun does not shine at night, and the wind dies down) necessitates countries to maintain reserve capacities. During peak load periods or unfavorable weather conditions, energy systems still rely on gas and even coal-fired plants to prevent outages. Last winter, several European countries temporarily increased generation at coal-fired power plants during hours when wind energy was insufficient, underscoring the role of "traditional" plants as a safety buffer. To enhance reliability, many countries are investing in energy storage systems—industrial batteries, pumped hydro storage—and developing smart grids capable of flexibly managing demand. All of these measures aim to improve the resilience of energy supplies as the share of renewable energy grows.
- Regional Differences: Leaders in the pace of renewable technology adoption remain developed Western countries and China. The EU and U.S. have adopted large-scale incentive programs: subsidies and tax incentives for accelerated construction of renewable projects and localization of equipment manufacturing (for instance, the American IRA Act and European climate finance initiatives). At the same time, Western nations are not abandoning safety mechanisms—strategic reserves of oil and gas remain to be drawn upon in emergencies. China, pursuing a distinct path, combines renewable energy development with enhancing traditional generation capacities: alongside the introduction of thousands of megawatts of solar panels and wind turbines, Beijing is constructing new hydro and nuclear power plants. This approach allows China to balance its energy system and meet growing demand without relying solely on variable sources. In developing countries, the pace of the transition is more measured: limited investment opportunities and the need for affordable energy compel them to rely on fossil fuels longer, though initial large-scale renewable projects are emerging with the support of international organizations.
- Impact on the Electricity Market: The rapid growth of generation from renewable sources is already altering the structure of the markets. During certain hours, when solar and wind output is at its peak, energy excesses occur, leading to wholesale price drops down to negative values. Such episodes were recorded in 2025 in Europe (for example, in Germany on windy spring days) and in some provinces of China. Cheap or even "free" energy during peak hours encourages consumers and businesses to transition to flexible consumption schedules, while operators are developing storage infrastructure (batteries, hydrogen technologies) to retain excess energy. Additionally, to facilitate the gradual decarbonization of the economy, the carbon quotas and taxes market is expanding, motivating companies to reduce emissions and invest in clean technologies. Overall, the results of last year confirm the sustainability of the energy transition trend: the share of renewable sources in global energy supply continues to grow. Experts predict that by 2026-2027, total renewable energy generation may, for the first time, surpass electricity generation from coal on a global scale. Nevertheless, in the coming years, it remains necessary to maintain a balance between "green" technologies and traditional resources to ensure that energy systems operate reliably under any scenario.
Coal Market: Stable Demand and a Gradual Shift Towards “Greening”
Despite efforts to reduce emissions, coal demonstrated demand resilience in 2025, especially in Asia. Global coal consumption reached record levels—around 8.8 billion tons for the year, roughly 0.5% higher than in 2024. This dynamic reflects a complex balance between developed countries reducing coal use and developing economies increasing combustion to support growth. The significant growth in demand has come from the Asian region, while consumption in Europe and North America has declined. The current situation in the coal market is characterized by the following points:
- China and India: These two largest developing economies continue to actively use coal for electricity generation and steel production. In China, despite the closure of some outdated coal mines and a declared goal to peak emissions by the end of the decade, new modern coal-fired power plants are being commissioned—total capacity of installed or upcoming blocks exceeds 50 GW. India is also accelerating coal generation expansion, striving to meet the growing energy demands of its industry and population. Governments of both countries emphasize that in the coming years, coal will remain a key energy source for their economies, even as programs for developing renewable energy and improving coal-fired plant efficiency (e.g., emission reduction technologies) are being implemented in parallel.
- Exporters and Prices: Key global coal suppliers—Indonesia, Australia, Russia, South Africa—maintained high levels of production and exports in 2025, satisfying demand from Asian buyers. Following the surge in prices in 2022-2023, the global coal market has stabilized: prices for thermal coal (Newcastle marker) are holding in the range of $120-140 per ton, significantly below the peaks of two years ago, but still ensuring profitability for production and trade. Coal stocks at terminals of major importers (in China, India, Japan) remain at comfortable levels, preventing panic price surges even amid temporary disruptions. For example, the rainy season in Indonesia or logistical challenges in Australia no longer lead to panic price hikes, as was seen during the crisis, due to accumulated reserves and diversified supply routes.
- Policies of Developed Countries: In the U.S., European Union, and the UK, the trend toward phasing out coal generation continues. In 2025, the share of coal in electricity production in the West declined at double-digit rates—the retirement of old plants is being accelerated, and new projects are being blocked by environmental regulations and economic impracticality (renewable energy and gas are often cheaper). The European Commission and governments are imposing increasingly stringent CO2 emission limits, making it costly to retain coal capacities. As a result, coal consumption in the energy sector in Europe has dropped to its lowest levels in several decades. A similar trend is seen in the U.S.: several states have announced plans for complete closure of coal-fired power plants by the 2030s. However, the global impact of these measures is offset by growth in Asia—the decline in demand in the West is being compensated by increased coal combustion in developing countries. Thus, global coal consumption remains around record levels, although the first steps towards its long-term reduction are noticeable. In the future, as the cost of renewable energy decreases and energy storage systems improve, the global economy's reliance on coal is expected to reduce, although the transition period will span several years.
Russian Oil Products Market: Extension of Measures to Stabilize Fuel Prices
The internal market for oil products in Russia at the beginning of 2026 remains relatively calm, achieved through governmental intervention in the second half of last year. Following a spike in gasoline and diesel prices last summer, authorities implemented a comprehensive set of urgent measures, which are still in effect. These steps allowed for saturating the domestic market with fuel, lowering wholesale prices, and preventing shortages during peak demand seasons. Key measures and their developments include:
- Export Restrictions on Fuel: The government has extended the ban (and quota) on the export of gasoline and diesel, implemented in autumn 2025, for an indefinite period until the market stabilizes. Most oil companies are still prohibited from exporting motor fuels abroad, except for deliveries under intergovernmental agreements and contracts for allied countries. This has redirected significant volumes of gasoline and diesel to the domestic market, increasing supply at gas stations and wholesale bases. Consequently, wholesale fuel prices, which reached peak levels in September, have decreased and continue to remain noticeably below those highs.
- Adjustment of the Dampening Mechanism: From October 1, 2025, the formula for calculating the fuel dampener (compensation payment to oil companies for domestic fuel sales) was temporarily altered. The government decided not to account for the "deviation from the base price" in calculating the dampener for gasoline and diesel until spring 2026, effectively increasing payments to oil refineries. This measure heightened the economic incentive for oil refineries to supply the domestic market and contributed to lowering exchange prices. For instance, according to the Saint Petersburg International Commodity Exchange, the wholesale price of AI-95 gasoline in mid-January 2026 was approximately 8-10% lower than the peak values of September 2025. Thus, financial mechanisms functioned effectively: producers receive compensation for lost profits from exports, while consumers enjoy more stable prices at gas stations.
- The Current Situation and Prospects: At the beginning of 2026, the domestic fuel market in the Russian Federation is in a balanced state. Wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel are either stable or continue to decline slightly. Stocks of oil products in distribution networks and reservoirs are sufficient to cover demand during the winter months, and there are no significant supply disruptions. The government claims that the situation is under control: in collaboration with companies, they are monitoring production, export, and world market price indicators. In the case of a sharp rise in global oil prices (which could provoke a new outflow of fuel for export), authorities are prepared to promptly introduce additional restrictions or duties to prevent domestic prices from spiking. Simultaneously, options for gradually lifting restrictions are being considered once the market stabilizes and is sufficiently saturated—potentially through a phased lifting of the export ban for certain companies on the condition of ensuring domestic sales. For now, manual management remains in place. For investors and industry participants, these measures signify predictability in the price situation on the domestic market, although they limit companies' export opportunities. Overall, the combination of administrative restrictions and subsidies has allowed the autumn-winter period to pass without a fuel crisis, and Russia demonstrates readiness to continue employing non-market levers to ensure stable prices for gasoline and diesel within the country.
