Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Friday, January 9, 2026: Oil and Gas Market, Energy Sector, Renewables, Coal, Oil Products, Refineries, and Key Global Trends in the Fuel and Energy Complex.
The current events in the global fuel and energy complex as of January 9, 2026, are capturing the attention of investors and market participants due to a combination of supply surplus and increasing geopolitical tensions. In the first days of the year, the price of Brent oil dropped below the psychological mark of $60 per barrel amid an oversupply of oil and restrained demand. Simultaneously, unprecedented US actions in Venezuela—namely, the capture and arrest of President Nicolás Maduro with subsequent plans to resume the export of Venezuelan oil—are reshaping crude supply routes and escalating relations between Washington and Beijing. The European gas market is navigating mid-winter in stable conditions: high storage levels and record LNG imports are keeping prices at moderate levels. The global energy transition is also gaining momentum: record levels of electricity generation from renewable sources (RES) are being reported worldwide, although traditional resources still need to support the reliability of energy systems. In Russia, following last year's fuel crisis, state regulatory measures for the domestic oil products market are still in place, including the extension of export restrictions. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Supply Surplus Weighs on Prices, OPEC+ Signals Readiness for Action
Global oil prices are under significant pressure at the beginning of 2026 due to supply exceeding demand. A barrel of North Sea Brent has dropped to around $58–59, falling below the $60 mark for the first time in years, while US WTI is trading around $55 per barrel. Industry experts estimate that total oil production grew significantly in 2025 (OPEC countries increased exports, while non-OPEC growth was even more pronounced), leading to a potential supply surplus of 2–3 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026. At the same time, global economic growth is slowing, and oil demand is increasing by only about 1% per year (compared to usual growth of 1.5% before the crisis), exacerbating market oversaturation. Additionally, geopolitical factors are pressuring oil prices: the unexpected US operation in Venezuela and Washington's plans to lift oil embargoes on Caracas have led to expectations of significant new Venezuelan oil volumes entering the market. Market participants are factoring this potential supply increase into prices, contributing to further reductions. In this context, the OPEC+ alliance is forced to consider emergency market support measures. Saudi Arabia and its partners are signaling their readiness to return to production cuts if oil prices continue to decline and fall below a comfortable level for producers. While no new official agreements have been announced, the rhetoric from key players allows investors to hope for coordinated actions that could stabilize the oil market.
Gas Market: Europe Confidently Navigates Winter Thanks to Stocks and Record LNG Imports
The focus of the gas market remains on Europe, which is demonstrating a much more resilient position compared to the crisis winters of 2022–2023. EU countries welcomed 2026 with underground gas storage filled to an average of over 60% of capacity—an exceptionally high level for mid-winter, significantly exceeding historical norms. Mild weather in December, along with record LNG supply volumes, allowed Europeans to reduce gas withdrawals from storage. As a result, gas prices in Europe at the beginning of January are maintained at relatively low levels: the key Dutch TTF index fluctuates around €28–30 per MWh (approximately $9–10 per MMBtu). Although winter cold has caused a slight increase in demand and prices have risen somewhat in recent weeks, they remain significantly below peak levels seen two years ago.
European energy companies have successfully compensated for the cessation of pipeline supplies from Russia by increasing LNG imports from around the world. By the end of 2025, LNG imports into Europe increased by approximately 25% year-on-year, reaching nearly 127 million tons—the main contributors were the USA, Qatar, and African countries. Newly introduced floating terminals for LNG regasification (in Germany, the Netherlands, and other countries) have expanded reception capacities and strengthened the region's energy security. Analysts expect that by the end of the heating season, the EU will retain significant reserves (about 35–40% of storage capacity by spring), providing confidence in the absence of gas shortages in the upcoming winter period. In Asian countries, LNG prices are traditionally somewhat higher than European ones (the Asian JKM index remains above $10 per MMBtu), yet the global gas market is in relative balance overall, thanks to abundant supply and restrained demand.
International Politics: US Redirecting Venezuelan Oil, Sanction Confrontation Continues
Geopolitical factors have taken center stage at the beginning of 2026 and significantly impact the energy sector. In the first days of the new year, the US conducted an unprecedented operation, effectively changing the government in Venezuela: Washington announced the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro and its intention to lift some oil sanctions against Venezuela. The Trump administration has already negotiated the supply of up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil to the US, redirecting a significant portion of Venezuela's exports that previously went to Asian markets, primarily China. America presents this deal as a step towards enhancing its own energy security and control over Venezuela's largest oil reserves. However, such actions have heightened tensions with Beijing: China, previously the main buyer of Venezuelan oil, condemned US interference, calling it a violation of sovereignty. Beijing has indicated that it intends to protect its energy interests—specifically, China is expected to increase purchases of Iranian and Russian oil to compensate for the potential loss of Venezuelan volumes.
Meanwhile, the sanctions confrontation between Russia and Western countries remains largely unchanged in the energy field. Moscow has extended the decree banning the supply of Russian oil and petroleum products to buyers complying with the G7/EU price cap until June 30, 2026, reaffirming its stance against recognizing Western restrictions. The EU and the US are also maintaining all previously imposed sanctions against the Russian fuel and energy complex, and global energy resource trading has fully adjusted to these restrictions—Russian oil and gas have been redirected primarily to Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. There are no expectations of a quick easing of the sanctions regime: direct dialogue between Russia and the West is stagnant, and energy companies must operate within a new paradigm shaped by sanction barriers. Nonetheless, ongoing ad-hoc contacts (for instance, regarding grain deals or prisoner exchanges) maintain minimal prospects for partial warming in relations in the future, which could also reflect in energy markets. For now, investors are factoring in the sustained tight sanction confrontation and the associated redirection of oil and gas flows into prices.
Asia: India Defends Energy Security, China Increases Resource Production
- India: Despite unprecedented pressure from Western countries demanding a reduction in cooperation with Russia, New Delhi remains steadfast in its commitment to securing its energy independence. India continues to actively purchase Russian oil and gas, asserting that a sharp downturn in imports from Russia is impossible without damaging its economy. Furthermore, Indian refiners are negotiating favorable terms: Russian companies are offering increased discounts on Urals crude (estimated at around $5 below Brent prices) to maintain the Indian market. As a result, Russian oil still accounts for a significant share of India's import balance, and the Indian government publicly declares its unacceptability of external pressure jeopardizing the country's access to critical energy resources.
- China: Amid increased geopolitical uncertainty, Beijing is focusing on developing its own resource base. In 2025, China increased its oil and gas production to record levels by investing in the development of fields both onshore and offshore. Simultaneously, the country ramped up coal production (over 4 billion tons per year) to meet the energy needs of industry and households. These measures aim to reduce dependence on imported energy resources, especially under conditions where supplies could become targets of sanctions or geopolitical pressure. Additionally, China is diversifying its external sources—boosting purchases from Middle Eastern countries, Africa, and Russia and Iran, striving to avert shortages even amid changing global market conditions.
Energy Transition: Renewable Generation Records and the Role of Traditional Energy
The global shift towards clean energy reached new heights in 2025. Many countries recorded exceptional levels of electricity generation from renewable sources—solar, wind, and hydropower. Solar and wind farms are being commissioned at an accelerated pace, and investments in energy storage technologies and hydrogen energy are rising. Preliminary data indicate that the total capacity of RES installations worldwide increased by more than 15% over the past year. Major energy firms and oil and gas corporations are also tapping into this trend by investing in renewable energy projects and low-carbon fuels, aiming to adapt to the evolving market.
At the same time, experts emphasize that traditional power generation—gas, coal, nuclear—remains crucial for energy system sustainability. Renewable energy sources are subject to weather and seasonal influences, hence traditional capacity reserves are still necessary to address peak loads and ensure uninterrupted electricity supply. Many states, while declaring goals for the gradual phasing out of fossil fuels, plan for a transitional period of 10–20 years, during which oil, gas, and particularly natural gas, as the cleanest fossil fuel, will serve as a "bridge" to fully green energy. Thus, the current energy transition is not an instantaneous transformation, but a gradual process that combines record growth in RES with a balance between new and old energy sources.
Coal: High Demand Sustains Market Stability
Despite the environmental agenda, the global coal market continues to demonstrate resilience due to persistently high demand. The demand for coal remains strong primarily in the Asia-Pacific region: economic growth and electricity needs in China, India, and Southeast Asia drive intensive consumption of this fuel. China, the world's largest consumer and producer of coal, burned nearly record levels of coal in 2025, producing over 4 billion tons and meeting the majority of its demand from domestic mines. India, possessing significant reserves, is also increasing coal usage: over 70% of the country's electricity is still generated by coal-fired power plants, and absolute fuel consumption is rising in parallel with economic growth. Even other developing economies (Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.) are introducing new coal power plants to meet the electricity demands of their populations and industries.
Supply in the global coal market is adapting to this demand, allowing prices to remain within a relatively narrow and predictable range. The largest exporters—Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa—have increased their production and export of thermal coal in recent years, stabilizing supply situations. After price peaks in 2022, thermal coal prices returned to normal levels: current quotes at the European ARA hub are approximately $100 per ton (down from over $300 two years earlier). The demand-supply balance in the sector appears stable: consumers are assured of receiving necessary fuel, while producers enjoy stable sales at favorable prices. Although many countries are announcing ambitious plans to reduce coal usage to achieve climate goals, this energy source is expected to remain indispensable for many nations, particularly in Asia, over the next decade. Thus, the coal sector is currently experiencing a phase of relative equilibrium, where the market meets the needs of the global economy while ensuring profitability for mining companies.
Russian Oil Products Market: Continued Measures to Stabilize Fuel Prices
Following the crisis events of the previous year, emergency measures remain in place in the Russian fuel market to prevent another spike in gasoline and diesel prices. In the summer of 2025, the country experienced an acute fuel crisis: wholesale prices for gasoline hit historical highs, and in certain regions, fuel shortages arose due to high seasonal demand (harvest season) and reduced supply (several large refineries were forced to halt operations due to accidents and drone attacks). The government stepped in promptly, creating a special task force led by the Deputy Prime Minister and implementing a series of decisions to saturate the domestic oil products market. As a result, wholesale prices stabilized by autumn; however, the regulatory framework persists into the new year:
- Extension of the fuel export ban. The blanket ban on the export of gasoline and diesel, introduced in August 2025, has been repeatedly extended and remains in effect (at least until the end of February 2026). This measure directs additional volumes of oil products—hundreds of thousands of tons monthly, previously supplied abroad—onto the domestic market.
- Partial resumption of export shipments for major refineries under state oversight. As market balance improved, restrictions were partially eased for vertically integrated oil companies. Since October 2025, certain large refineries have been allowed limited export supply of fuel under government supervision. However, independent producers, oil traders, and small refineries remain under embargo, preventing leaks of scarce resources abroad.
- Increased control over domestic fuel distribution. Authorities have tightened monitoring of oil products movement within the domestic market. Oil companies are mandated to prioritize satisfying domestic consumers' needs while avoiding speculative resale on exchanges that inflate prices. Regulators are developing long-term mechanisms—such as a direct contracting system between refineries and gas station networks bypassing exchanges—to eliminate extraneous intermediaries and smooth price fluctuations.
- Preservation of subsidies and a damping mechanism. The state continues to provide financial support to refiners, compensating for part of the lost revenue due to export restrictions. Budgetary subsidies and a reverse excise mechanism ("damping") enable covering the gap between the high global price and the lower domestic price, encouraging refineries to channel sufficient volumes of gasoline and diesel to the domestic market.
The aggregate effect of these measures has already yielded results: the fuel crisis has been brought under control. Despite record exchange prices last summer, retail prices at gas stations have increased by only 5–6% since the beginning of the year, roughly corresponding to inflation. Stations across the country are now adequately supplied with fuel, and wholesale prices have stabilized. The government expresses its readiness to continue extending the oil product export restrictions into 2026 and, if necessary, utilize state reserve supplies for prompt supply to problematic regions. Monitoring of the situation in the fuel market will continue at a high level to prevent new price spikes and ensure stable supplies of oil products to the economy and the population.
