Current News in the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector for Saturday, December 6, 2025: Price Dynamics for Oil and Gas, Inventories, Sanctions, Renewables, Coal, Exports, Production, Analysis for Investors and Energy Companies
The latest events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of December 6, 2025, reflect mixed dynamics in global markets amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Global oil prices remain near multi-month lows: Brent prices hover around $62–63 per barrel, while American WTI stands at around $59. These levels are significantly lower than mid-year figures, attributed to a combination of factors—from expectations of progress in peace talks to signs of oversupply in the market. In contrast, the European gas market enters winter with confidence: gas storage facilities (GSF) in EU countries are filled to more than 85%, providing a solid buffer, and wholesale prices (TTF index) remain below €30 per MWh, which is several times lower than peak values of previous years.
Nevertheless, the geopolitical standoff over energy remains firm. The collective West continues to exert sanction pressure on the Russian energy sector—the European Union recently legally approved a phased ban on the import of Russian pipeline gas by 2027 and an accelerated reduction of remaining oil supplies from Russia. Attempts at diplomatic resolution of the conflict have yet to yield tangible results, leading to continued restrictions and supply disruptions. Inside Russia, authorities are extending emergency measures to stabilize the domestic fuel market following the autumn deficit of gasoline and diesel, strictly limiting exports of petroleum products. Simultaneously, the global energy sector accelerates its "green" transition: investments in renewable energy are reaching record highs and new incentives are being introduced, although traditional resources—oil, gas, and coal—still play a key role in the energy balance of most countries. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Prices at Lows Under Pressure from Oversupply and Hopes for Peace
As of early December, global oil prices remain under pressure and fluctuate near local lows. The North Sea Brent blend, after relative stability in the autumn, has fallen to ~$62 per barrel, while WTI futures are around $59. Current prices are about 15% lower than year-ago levels. The market is partly pricing in a scenario where sanctions on Russian oil might soften if peace talks between Moscow and Washington succeed, which has reduced the geopolitical risk premium in prices. At the same time, concerns over oversupply are intensifying: industry data indicates growth in global crude oil and fuel inventories, while seasonal demand declines at the year’s end and China’s economic slowdown limit consumption. The oil alliance OPEC+ confirmed at its meeting on November 30 that production quotas would remain unchanged at least until the end of 2026, signaling a reluctance to increase supply and risk a price collapse. As a result, the cumulative influence of factors has shifted the market balance toward oversupply. Prices remain at low levels while market participants assess the prospects for a potential peace agreement and further actions from OPEC+ in response to the changing environment.
An additional sign of oversupply was Saudi Arabia's decision to lower the official selling price of Arab Light oil for Asian clients to its lowest level in five years. This move aims to strengthen the competitive positions of the Saudis in the Asian market; however, the simultaneous maintenance of limited OPEC+ production somewhat compensates for oversupply pressure, preventing prices from falling further.
Gas Market: Europe Enters Winter with Comfortable Reserves and Stable Prices
The European natural gas market approaches the peak heating season without sharp shocks. Thanks to timely fueling and a mild start to winter, EU countries meet December with record-high gas storage levels and relatively low prices, thereby reducing the risk of a repeat crisis akin to 2022. Key factors determining the current situation in Europe's gas market include:
- High GSF Fill Levels: According to industry monitoring data, the average level of gas storage fill in the EU exceeds 85%, significantly ahead of typical levels for the start of winter. The accumulated reserves create a reliable "safety cushion" in case of extended cold spells or supply disruptions.
- Record LNG Imports: European consumers continue to actively purchase liquefied natural gas (LNG) on the global market. Weakened demand for LNG in Asia has freed up additional volumes for Europe, partially offsetting the cessation of pipeline supplies from Russia. Consequently, the influx of LNG remains high, helping to keep prices at a moderate level.
- Moderate Demand and Diversification: Mild weather at the winter's onset and energy-saving measures are restraining gas consumption. Simultaneously, the EU is diversifying supply sources: imports of gas from Norway, North Africa, and other regions have increased, strengthening energy security and reducing dependency on Russian raw materials.
- Price Stabilization: Wholesale gas prices are now several times lower than the extreme peaks of last year. The Dutch TTF index hovers around €28–30 per MWh. High storage levels and market balancing have prevented new price surges even amid a sharp reduction in gas imports from Russia.
Thus, Europe enters winter with a significant buffer in the gas market. Even in the event of cold weather, accumulated reserves and flexible LNG supply chains can mitigate potential shocks. However, in the long term, the situation will depend on weather conditions and global demand dynamics—especially if energy needs in Asia begin to rise again amid economic recovery.
Russian Market: Fuel Deficit and Extension of Export Restrictions
In autumn 2025, Russia faced an acute shortage of motor fuel (gasoline and diesel) in the domestic market due to a confluence of factors. Increased seasonal demand (the harvesting campaign raised fuel consumption) coincided with reduced supply from refineries (some refineries curtailed output due to unplanned repairs and drone strikes on fuel infrastructure). Supply disruptions in several regions forced the government to intervene swiftly to stabilize the situation. Authorities introduced emergency measures that continue to be in effect:
- Gasoline Export Ban: The Russian government imposed a temporary total ban on the export of automotive gasoline by all producers and traders (except for supplies under intergovernmental agreements) at the end of August. Initially, the measure was slated to last until October, but it has since been extended at least until December 31, 2025, due to continued tensions in the domestic fuel market.
- Diesel Export Restrictions: Additionally, a ban on the export of diesel fuel for independent traders is in place until the end of the year. Oil companies with their own refineries are permitted to export diesel fuel in limited quantities to avoid halting processing. This partial ban aims to ensure sufficient product supply within the country and prevent a recurrence of shortages.
According to officials, the fuel crisis that arose in autumn is local and temporary in nature. Reserve stocks have been mobilized to address the crisis, and oil processing is gradually recovering after unplanned downtime. By the beginning of winter, the situation had somewhat stabilized: wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel retreated from peak levels in September (including during the first days of December, market prices for gasoline dropped another 5–7% compared to the previous week). Although fuel prices in the domestic market are still higher than a year ago, the government's priority is to fully meet the country's needs and prevent another spike in prices. If necessary, strict export restrictions may be extended into 2026 if needed to maintain stability.
Sanctions and Policy: Increased Western Pressure Amid Dialogue Attempts
Western countries continue to tighten their policy towards the Russian FEC, showing no willingness to ease sanctions. On December 4, EU leaders finalized a plan for a complete and indefinite halt to imports of Russian pipeline gas by the end of 2026 (with a cessation of Russian LNG purchases by 2027) as part of a new sanctions package. This step aims to deprive Moscow of a substantial portion of export revenues in the medium term. Traditional opponents of the initiative, dependent on Russian gas, such as Hungary and Slovakia, were unable to block the overall EU decision.
Simultaneously, the United States is ramping up its own pressure. The administration of President Donald Trump has taken a hard stance on countries cooperating with Russia in the energy sector. Specifically, in 2025, Washington imposed increased 25% tariffs on a number of Indian goods, partly in response to New Delhi's purchases of Russian oil, and signaled a review of the easing of sanctions against Venezuela. These steps add uncertainty around future Venezuelan oil supplies to the global market.
Meanwhile, direct negotiations between Moscow and Washington to end the conflict have yielded no notable progress—the consultations in Moscow involving American emissaries concluded without breakthroughs. Hostilities in Ukraine continue, and all previously imposed restrictions on exports of Russian energy resources remain in force. Western energy companies continue to avoid new investments in Russia. Thus, geopolitical tension surrounding energy remains, adding long-term risks and uncertainty to the market.
Asia: India and China Strengthen Energy Security
The largest developing economies in Asia—India and China—continue to focus on ensuring their own energy security, balancing the benefits of cheap imports with external pressures. Countries in the region are actively taking advantage of opportunities to purchase energy resources on favorable terms while simultaneously developing internal projects and international cooperation. The current situation in these two key countries appears as follows:
- India: New Delhi, under pressure from the West, temporarily reduced purchases of Russian oil in late autumn; however, India remains one of Moscow's main clients. Indian refineries continue to process available discounted Urals oil, meeting domestic fuel needs and directing excess petroleum products for export. The state visit of President Vladimir Putin to India on December 4–5 emphasized the close ties between the countries. At the summit on December 5 in New Delhi, the parties discussed and highly appreciated their extensive cooperation in the energy sector, signing an "important package" of documents aimed at deepening partnership further. The joint statement confirmed Russia's readiness to continue providing uninterrupted fuel supplies for India's rapidly growing economy and to expand cooperation in oil, gas, petrochemicals, coal generation, and nuclear energy. Furthermore, Russia seeks to increase imports of Indian goods to balance trade, despite U.S. sanctions pressure (including high tariffs on Indian exports due to cooperation with Russia in the oil sector).
- China: Despite an economic slowdown, Beijing retains a key role in the global energy market. Chinese companies are diversifying their import channels: new long-term contracts for liquefied natural gas purchases are being signed (including with Qatar and the USA), pipeline gas supplies from Central Asia are expanding, and investments in overseas oil and gas extraction are increasing. Simultaneously, China is gradually increasing its own hydrocarbon production, although this is currently insufficient to fully cover domestic demand. The country also continues large coal purchases to secure its energy system during the transition period. Both India and China are actively investing in the development of renewable energy; however, in the coming years, they do not plan to abandon traditional sources—oil, gas, and coal—which still form the backbone of their energy balance.
Renewable Energy: Record Investments Supported by Governments
The global transition to clean energy continues to accelerate, setting new records for investments and capacity additions. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), in 2025, global investments in renewable sources exceeded $2 trillion—more than double the total investments in the oil and gas sector during the same period. The main flow of capital is going into the construction of solar and wind power plants, as well as associated infrastructure—high-voltage grids and energy storage systems. At the climate summit COP30, world leaders confirmed their commitment to rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions and significantly increasing renewable capacity by 2030. To achieve these goals, a set of initiatives has been proposed:
- Accelerating Permitting Procedures: Streamline the review process and simplify the issuance of permits for the construction of renewable energy facilities, grid upgrades, and other low-carbon projects.
- Expanding Government Support: Introduce additional incentives for "green" energy—special tariffs, tax benefits, subsidies, and government guarantees to attract more investment and reduce business risks.
- Financing the Transition in Developing Countries: Increase international financial assistance for emerging market economies to accelerate the adoption of renewables where domestic resources are insufficient. Targeted funds are being established to lower the cost of "green" projects in the most vulnerable regions.
The rapid growth of renewable energy is already leading to noticeable changes in the global energy balance. According to analytical centers, non-carbon sources (renewables together with nuclear generation) now account for over 40% of global electricity generation, and this share is steadily increasing. Experts note that while short-term fluctuations may occur due to weather factors or spikes in consumption, the long-term trend is clear: clean energy is gradually displacing fossil fuels, approaching the advent of a new low-carbon era.
Coal: High Demand Supports the Market, but the Peak Has Passed
Despite efforts to decarbonize, the global coal market in 2025 remains close to record levels. Global coal consumption is maintained at historically high levels—around 8.8–8.9 billion tons per year, slightly exceeding the previous year's figures. Demand continues to grow in developing Asian economies (primarily India and Southeast Asian countries), compensating for the decline in coal use in Europe and North America. According to the IEA, in the first half of 2025, global coal consumption declined slightly due to increased electricity generation from renewables and mild weather; however, a slight increase (~1%) is expected by the end of the year. Thus, 2025 will mark the third consecutive year with near-record coal burning levels.
Coal production is also increasing—especially in China and India, which are boosting domestic output to reduce import dependency. Prices for thermal coal remain generally stable, as high Asian demand maintains market balance. Nevertheless, analysts believe that global demand for coal has reached a "plateau" and will gradually decline in the coming years as the development of renewable energy accelerates and climate policies tighten.
