Analytical Review of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Saturday, December 6, 2025: Slowdown in Inflation in the USA, Rate Cuts in India, and Diplomatic Negotiations Outcomes
The first Saturday of December 2025 presents investors with relative calm on global markets following an eventful week. Stock exchanges around the world are closed for the weekend, allowing market participants to evaluate the impact of recent macroeconomic data and corporate news. Key themes of the day include fresh signals of inflation deceleration and changes in monetary policy (key indicators from the USA and an unexpected decision from India), as well as the results of important high-level diplomatic contacts. In this context, investors from Russia and the CIS countries focus on external factors and global indicators, especially given that there are virtually no new corporate earnings releases scheduled for Saturday itself.
For global stock markets – from Wall Street to European exchanges and Asian platforms (S&P 500, DAX, FTSE 100, Nikkei 225), as well as the Russian MOEX Index – the week was favorable. American indices continued their rally on hopes of an imminent easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve following a series of moderate inflation data. In Europe, an unexpected improvement in GDP estimates for the Eurozone in the third quarter boosted sentiment in German and UK markets. In Asia, major markets traded without sharp movements, aligning with external signals amid a lack of local drivers. The Russian MOEX index initially faced pressure due to a significant strengthening of the ruble and rising domestic inflation; however, by the end of the week, it reclaimed losses and surpassed the 2700-point mark amidst news of a potential de-escalation in the geopolitical situation.
Macroeconomics and Rates: Inflation Slowdown and Policy Easing
Investor focus is on the latest inflation data and central bank decisions. In the USA, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for October was released, a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve. It confirmed a slowdown in price growth: the core PCE approached approximately 2.8-2.9% year-on-year, marking the lowest level in several years. The slowdown in inflation in the USA enhances expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon shift towards lowering interest rates. Futures already imply a high probability of the first rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in December.
In the Eurozone, the final GDP estimate for the third quarter was slightly above expectations (+0.3% q/q and +1.4% y/y), somewhat easing recession fears. However, inflation in the region still exceeds the European Central Bank's target level, leading the market to anticipate a pause in rate hikes as the regulator awaits further data.
An unexpected development of the week was the Reserve Bank of India's decision to lower its key interest rate. At its meeting on December 5, the RBI cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% per annum. This marks the first easing of monetary policy in India in a protracted period, made possible by a slowdown in inflation in the country. Simultaneously, the Indian regulator improved its economic growth forecast and lowered the inflation forecast for the fiscal year 2026 to approximately 2%. The RBI's decision reflects a broader global trend: as price pressures recede, central banks in developing countries are beginning to lower rates to support their economies.
Geopolitics: Peace Negotiations and Strengthening Partnerships
The geopolitical agenda continues to significantly influence investor sentiment. Important diplomatic meetings took place over the past week. President Vladimir Putin of Russia concluded a state visit to India (December 4-5), following which Moscow and Delhi reaffirmed their commitment to deepening trade and economic cooperation. The leaders of the two countries agreed to expand transactions in national currencies and develop joint projects in energy, infrastructure, and defense. These outcomes signal the strengthening of strategic partnerships between two major emerging economies, which could open up new business opportunities for firms from both nations in the long term.
Simultaneously, steps were taken to alleviate international tensions. At the beginning of the week, extensive negotiations were held in Moscow between U.S. Special Representative Steve Whitcoff and Vladimir Putin (with Jared Kushner's participation). The meeting aimed to discuss potential resolutions for the conflict in Ukraine. While no specific breakthroughs were announced, the very fact of direct dialogue between high-ranking representatives from the U.S. and Russia instills cautious optimism in the markets. Any indications of possible progress in peace negotiations are viewed positively by investors.
Additionally, the markets closely monitored French President Emmanuel Macron's visit to China, with negotiations in Beijing on December 4-5 aimed at expanding business ties (in aerospace, energy, and other sectors). Investors perceive the strengthening of EU-China dialogue positively, although strategic disagreements between the major powers persist.
U.S. Corporate Reports
The U.S. corporate calendar for the weekend is virtually empty: no new financial reports are scheduled for Saturday, December 6. This is expected, as large public companies in the S&P 500 primarily release quarterly results during weekdays. The main earnings season for the third quarter in the U.S. has already concluded; therefore, there will be no regular profit releases from leading companies on Saturday.
European Corporate Reports
European stock markets also do not anticipate new corporate publications on Saturday. Most leading issuers in the region (including companies from the Euro Stoxx 50 index, as well as those within the DAX and FTSE 100 indices) have already disclosed their results previously, releasing financial statements only during weekdays. Thus, the corporate newsflow in Europe on December 6 will be neutral.
Asian Corporate Reports
The Asia-Pacific region is also not rich in corporate events on Saturday. The earnings season for the July-September period is virtually concluded in the largest Asian economies, and no new financial results from corporations are expected on December 6. Regional market participants shift their focus to external factors – currency rates, commodity prices, geopolitical news – due to the absence of local drivers.
Russian Corporate Reports
On the Russian stock market, no new reports from large public companies are expected on Saturday. The main wave of results publication for the first nine months of 2025 concluded in November, and companies traditionally do not disclose reports on weekends. Thus, no corporate surprises are anticipated on the MOEX on December 6, with investors primarily focusing on external signals (oil market conditions, ruble exchange rate, global news).
What Investors Should Pay Attention To
- Monetary Policy of Leading Central Banks: Markets are closely monitoring signals from the Federal Reserve and ECB amid new inflation data. The slowdown in price growth heightens expectations for a rate cut soon, so any comments from regulators could significantly impact global sentiments.
- Consumer Demand and Retail Sales: Attention is focused on results from the holiday shopping season. Initial estimates for Black Friday and Cyber Monday reported record online sales (5-7% higher than last year's). If the trend of strong consumer demand continues into December, it could support the stocks of retail and e-commerce companies. Conversely, weak purchasing activity may lead investors to be cautious in assessing corporate profit prospects.
- Geopolitical Events: Investors continue to follow negotiations regarding Ukraine and international visits by leaders. Any advancement toward resolving conflicts or new agreements between powers could reduce geopolitical premiums in the markets, while escalated rhetoric would have the opposite effect.
- Inflation and Policy in Russia: In the coming days, inflation data for November in Russia is expected to be released; an acceleration in price growth (up 0.5% for the week of November 26 to December 2) increases the likelihood of another interest rate hike by the Bank of Russia on December 20. Expectations regarding the key rate and the Central Bank's rhetoric will influence the bond market, banking sector, and ruble exchange rate.
