Current News in Oil, Gas, and Energy as of November 18, 2025: Oil and Gas Prices, EU Sanctions, Production, Exports, Fuel Market, Electricity Generation, Renewable Energy, and Coal Sector. Analysis for Investors and Companies in the Energy Sector.
By mid-November 2025, global energy markets are exhibiting mixed dynamics. Oil prices are under pressure due to an oversupply: Brent quotes are holding around $64 per barrel (WTI – about $60), close to the lows of recent months. Production growth from OPEC+ countries and partners is outpacing moderate demand, leading to an oil surplus in the market. Concurrently, the European gas market is experiencing a price lull – exchange prices for gas have dropped to one-and-a-half-year lows (around $380 per thousand cubic meters) thanks to full storage facilities and mild weather conditions. Within Russia, unprecedented measures have been adopted to stabilize the domestic fuel market following the summer surge in gasoline prices. At the geopolitical level, sanction pressure is intensifying: the European Union and the USA are discussing new restrictions on oil and gas exports, although their implementation faces difficulties. This review provides the latest news and trends in the oil and gas markets, the situation within Russia's fuel and energy complex, as well as developments in the coal, electricity generation, and renewable energy sectors.
Oil Market
In November, bearish sentiment prevails in the oil market. After a brief rise last week, prices are declining again: Brent is trading in the range of $60–65 per barrel, indicating weak demand. Investors have noted that global oil supplies have increased significantly more than consumption: since the beginning of the year, total supply has risen by approximately 6 million barrels per day (primarily due to increased production by OPEC+ countries), while demand growth has been much more modest. As a result, world fuel stocks are high, and the market is facing a surplus, putting downward pressure on prices.
Additional uncertainty comes from risks surrounding the export of Russian oil. At the end of last week, a drone attack temporarily disrupted operations at an oil terminal in Novorossiysk, causing a brief spike in prices; however, the rapid restoration of operations alleviated the tension – by the start of the new week, Brent had returned to a downward trend around $64. Thus, even geopolitical incidents are currently impacting the market only in the short term, yielding to the influence of fundamental factors. Market participants are also assessing the consequences of sanctions: despite tightening Western restrictions, exports from Russia remain stable due to a redirection to alternative channels and discounts for buyers.
- OPEC+ Policy: Exporters from the OPEC+ alliance remain committed to plans for a gradual recovery in production, which they have been implementing since the beginning of the year. By the end of 2025, countries have fully restored much of the volume that was previously voluntarily limited. Recently, OPEC+ representatives stated that they retain the freedom for further voluntary adjustments to production in 2026 – meaning they are prepared to reduce supply again if the market situation worsens (for instance, if prices fall below acceptable levels). For now, key producers signal that they will not rush into new production cuts if prices remain above critical thresholds ($50 and above).
- Demand and Stocks: Weak macroeconomic conditions are curbing oil consumption growth. The slowdown in China's economy, high interest rates in the US and Europe, and other factors limit global需求 for the raw material. However, in certain segments, demand remains resilient: the winter heating season is beginning, supporting the demand for oil products, and the global aviation sector and road transport are showing gradual recovery. The previously record summer demand (tourism, automotive transport) prevented prices from falling even deeper. Nevertheless, due to inventory accumulation in key regions (the USA, China, and Europe) and increased exports from some supplying countries (including Iran and Venezuela), price pressures remain.
- Geopolitics and Sanctions: Global risks still exist, but their influence on prices is limited. Armed conflicts and tensions in the Middle East create a moderate price premium, but substantial supply disruptions have not occurred. Western countries continue to intensify sanction pressure on the Russian oil sector: the European Union approved in the summer a ban on the import of oil products made from Russian oil in third countries (with some exceptions), which will come into force in February 2026 and effectively closes loopholes for exports to Europe. Additionally, new measures are being discussed – up to and including introducing restrictions against any refineries that have purchased Russian oil in recent months, although the implementation of such ideas encounters technical complexities and resistance from some businesses. On its part, the US administration has adopted a tougher stance: President Donald Trump has expressed readiness to support a bill introducing sanctions against countries trading with Russia and has threatened similar measures against Iran. Although such radical steps have not yet been implemented, the rhetoric itself increases long-term uncertainty for oil exporters. Nonetheless, for now, Russian oil continues to find its way to global markets – analysts note that buyers in Asia and the Middle East are confidently absorbing volumes redirected from Europe, even if it requires additional discounts.
Natural Gas Market
In the gas market, a relatively calm situation persists this autumn. In Europe, gas prices have fallen to their lowest levels in about 18 months: approximately $370–380 per thousand cubic meters on the TTF index, significantly below last winter's peaks. This is due to a combination of comfortable supply and moderate demand. Storage facilities in European countries were filled at a record pace and currently remain about 90% full as of mid-November, providing a safety cushion at the start of the heating season. Mild weather in Europe in the first half of autumn and increased generation from renewable energy sources have also reduced the need to draw gas from reserves, allowing the market to remain stable.
A factor of stability has been the steady influx of LNG imports. European importers continue to actively receive liquefied gas from various sources – from the USA and Qatar to Africa and Asia. New liquefaction projects in the USA and the Middle East are expanding global capacities, creating a supply buffer. Alternative pipeline supplies also remain stable: Norway, Algeria, and other North African countries consistently export gas to the EU, compensating for almost complete cessation of direct imports from Russia. Russian gas transit through Ukraine is now minimal, with supplies via the southern route (through Turkey and the Balkans) being limited and only satisfying the needs of individual Eastern European states. In aggregate, diversification of sources has allowed Europe to pass through last winter without fuel shortages, and the market currently looks confidently toward the 2025/26 winter.
- European Balance: Thanks to timely stockpiling and reduced consumption, the European gas balance appears stable. According to industry monitoring, at the start of the heating season, underground gas storage in the EU was almost 95% full, which is above the average multi-year values. Gas consumption in Europe, which decreased in 2022–2023 due to the energy crisis, has stabilized and even shown slight growth in 2025 (a 5% year-on-year increase in the first half of the year, thanks to industrial recovery and hot weather). However, the current level of demand remains below pre-crisis levels – enterprises are implementing energy efficiency measures, and households are saving energy due to previously high prices. This means that even with moderate demand growth, current reserves should suffice for the winter peak periods.
- Global LNG: The liquefied natural gas market continues to play a key role in meeting the needs of Europe and Asia. In 2025, new LNG export capabilities are being brought online – both in the USA and in Gulf countries – increasing the volume of fuel available in the market. Supplier competition is intensifying, and spot LNG prices remain relatively low for the current season. Asian markets are currently showing balanced demand: in Northeast Asia, LNG stocks have also been accumulated, and the absence of extreme cold at the start of winter is not causing price spikes. This allows for additional tankers to be directed to Europe as needed. Meanwhile, major consumers, like China, are signing long-term contracts for LNG supply, laying the groundwork for price stability in the future.
- Russia and New Routes: The Russian gas industry continues to shift its export focus eastward. Pipeline gas supplies to Europe have dropped to historic lows (effectively remaining only through the remaining Ukrainian corridor and the Turkish Stream for select countries), while exports to Asia are increasing. In 2025, Gazprom increased throughput via the Power of Siberia pipeline to China to record volumes, nearing its designed capacity to meet the growing demand from Chinese consumers. Simultaneously, Russia is developing its LNG projects on the Arctic shelf: the first phase of the Arctic LNG-2 plant was commissioned at the end of last year, and in 2025, new capacities aimed mainly at Southeast Asian markets are being gradually brought online. These steps are designed to compensate for the lost European market and ensure workload for production companies. Although transporting gas to new regions entails logistical and price challenges, Russia is strengthening its presence in the Asian direction by entering long-term contracts with China, India, and other importers.
Russian Domestic Fuel Market
Following the summer crisis in the domestic fuel market, the situation is gradually normalizing. Recall that at the end of summer, gasoline prices in Russia surged sharply, reaching record levels due to supply shortages and export cost increases driven by a weak ruble. To stabilize the situation, the government was forced to implement stringent emergency measures: at the end of July, a temporary ban on gasoline exports and some diesel fuel supplies was introduced to redirect maximum volumes to the domestic market and saturate gas stations. Initially, the restrictions applied to traders and small refineries, but were later expanded – the gasoline export ban was even extended to major producers, and diesel fuel exports outside the Eurasian Economic Union were limited for all but direct oil companies, contingent upon controlling domestic supplies.
By mid-November, it can be stated that the measures taken have had a tangible effect. Wholesale fuel prices on the St. Petersburg Exchange have significantly retreated from the peak levels of September, and retail prices at gas stations have ceased to rise. According to Rosstat, in the first half of November, average gasoline prices in Russia even slightly decreased – the first drop in over a year. In regions that were most affected in the summer (e.g., in southern subjects and Crimea), supply has normalized: shortages of AI-95 and AI-92 gasoline have been resolved, and reserves are sufficient for current consumption. The government has extended the temporary ban on gasoline exports until December 31, 2025, to stabilize the market through the autumn-winter period. Concurrently, authorities are developing long-term mechanisms to prevent fuel crises – from adjusting dampening formulas and excise tax policies to incentivizing refiners to increase fuel production during off-seasons.
- Anti-Crisis Measures: To overcome the fuel crisis, Russian authorities have deployed a range of tools. A complete ban on the export of automotive gasoline has been introduced, and the export of diesel fuel and fuel oil has been significantly curtailed. Oil companies are instructed to prioritize satisfying the needs of the domestic market. Minimum sales standards for fuel through the exchange have also been increased, enabling small wholesalers and independent gas stations to access resources. These measures have been accompanied by agreements with major refineries on increasing crude processing and supplies to the domestic market, especially in remote regions facing fuel shortages.
- Market Stabilization: Already in October-November, the trend shifted – price growth halted. Exchange quotes for Regular-92 and Premium-95 gasoline have dropped by tens of percent from September highs. Following wholesale prices, retail prices at gas stations have stabilized: in a number of regions, a decrease in gasoline prices of 10–30 kopecks per liter has been recorded. Gas station networks report sufficient fuel reserves, elimination of queues, and a return of demand to normal levels. Thus, the domestic oil products market has entered winter in a balanced state, showing no signs of shortage.
- Prospects and Regulation: The unprecedented restrictions on fuel exports are temporary. Officially, the ban on gasoline exports is in effect until the end of 2025, and the government will decide on its extension or cancellation based on the situation. Simultaneously, long-term measures are being considered: possibly introducing a prohibitive duty on fuel exports, which will automatically restrain exports during spikes in global prices; improving the compensation mechanism for oil producers to make supplying to the domestic market more lucrative; increasing reserve fuel stocks at state oil depots. The modernization of refineries and logistics for supplies to remote regions is also a priority, to eliminate local disruptions. Industry participants expect that a combination of market incentives and state control will prevent a recurrence of the crisis next spring and summer.
Government Policy and Cooperation
Russian authorities continue to implement a long-term energy strategy, adapting the fuel and energy complex to the new realities of sanction pressure and global energy transition. In 2025, the focus is on supporting the oil and gas sector with investment incentives and expanding cooperation with friendly countries. Despite external constraints, the government aims to ensure the sustainable development of the sector and access to new sales markets.
- Tax Incentives for the Industry: The Russian government is currently finalizing a package of measures aimed at alleviating the tax burden on oil and gas companies and stimulating the exploration of new fields. Among the measures under discussion are the expansion of the application of the mineral extraction tax (MET) to new oil and gas extraction projects, the extension of tax exemptions for challenging and depleting fields, as well as temporary reductions in export duties on raw materials for projects in priority regions. These concessions are expected to come into force in 2026 and will help companies maintain investments even under sanctions and limited access to foreign capital.
- Diversification and New Projects: One of the strategic goals is to diversify the energy sector. The state is promoting the development of new segments – from liquefied natural gas (LNG) production and petrochemical production to hydrogen energy and manufacturing equipment for renewable energy. In 2025, funding continued for infrastructure to increase LNG exports (construction of terminals in the Far East and North), as well as projects for the extraction of rare earth metals and components necessary for renewable technologies. At the same time, Russia is investing in its extraction and processing technologies to reduce dependence on imported equipment and services. This reorientation is aimed at enhancing the resilience of the fuel and energy complex in the face of external restrictions and increasing competitiveness in the global energy resource market.
- International Cooperation: Amid limited interaction with Europe, Russia is actively strengthening energy ties with partners in Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. Throughout the year, new agreements have been struck for the supply of oil and petroleum products with several countries: India continues to increase its purchases of Russian oil on a long-term basis, China is ramping up gas imports and participating in financing large projects (for instance, in the construction of petrochemical complexes in Russia), and Gulf States are investing in joint extraction projects. Additionally, Russia and OPEC+ countries maintain close coordination: regular consultations with Saudi Arabia and other participants allow for joint market management. These partnerships help the Russian fuel and energy complex redirect energy resource streams, seek new markets, and compensate for lost revenues from the European market.
- Sanction Risks: Despite the implemented efforts, external risks have not disappeared. As noted, Western countries are contemplating further tightening sanctions regarding Russian energy exports. Currently, the US and EU are acting cautiously, fearing to undermine the global energy market through drastic actions – estimates suggest that Washington is unlikely to impose direct sanctions against Russian LNG at least until the end of the decade to avoid provoking gas shortages for allies. Nevertheless, the rhetoric from certain politicians remains tough, creating uncertainty. Russian companies must take into account scenarios for the possible introduction of secondary sanctions targeting buyers of Russian oil and gas in third countries. Such developments will necessitate an even deeper adjustment of export logistics and may affect new long-term contracts. In this environment, the Russian leadership is focused on accelerating the establishment of its own infrastructure (tanker fleet, insurance, service) to ensure uninterrupted exports even in the event of further complications in the external environment.
Coal Sector
The Russian coal industry is facing a challenging 2025. Following the pricing boom of 2021-2022, the global coal market entered a phase of decline, and this year prices have remained relatively low, sharply reducing export profitability for Russian companies. Fierce competition in the Asian markets and sanction restrictions in Europe have led a significant number of coal mining enterprises in Russia to experience financial difficulties. Many mines are scaling back production, and some companies are on the brink of halting operations altogether. According to the Ministry of Energy, in 2024, total losses of Russian coal companies exceeded 110 billion rubles, and the negative trend persists into the current year.
Despite this, the industry is attempting to adapt to new conditions by reallocating supplies and cutting costs. Exports of Russian coal are increasingly shifting towards Asia, where there remains a certain demand for competitively priced raw materials from Russia. Although the European market is effectively closed to Russia, domestic coal producers are actively engaging with buyers in China, India, Turkey, and other countries. The global market situation has improved somewhat by the end of the year for suppliers: the approach of winter and reduced output in some regions (for instance, in China due to safety and environmental measures) have led to a slight increase in prices for thermal coal. However, the current price levels are still insufficient for guaranteed profitability for most Russian projects, especially considering rising logistics costs.
- Production Decline: In the largest coal production region in Russia, Kuzbass, production continues to decline. In the first nine months of 2025, coal production in the Kemerovo region is estimated to have decreased by approximately 5-6% compared to the same period last year. Many companies had to deactivate unprofitable capacities, especially at remote cuts and mines with high costs. Export shipments are fluctuating as well: by the end of October 2025, exports of Russian coal abroad decreased by 1% compared to the previous month, totaling 17.3 million tons, although cumulative exports for the year remain slightly above last year's level (+3.6% for 10 months, thanks to high shipments at the beginning of the year). A decrease in demand for thermal coal in traditional markets forces Russian producers to keep production at a reduced level and wait for more favorable conditions.
- Coking Coal: The metallurgical (coking) coal segment is also facing challenges. The global steel industry is showing weak dynamics, particularly in China, which limits the demand for coke and raw materials for its production. The export of Russian coking coal by sea has declined, and by autumn, volumes exported through southern ports have dropped to multi-year lows. Analysts estimate that at current prices, over 20% of Russian coking coal producers are operating at a loss, and even the largest players in the industry are balancing around the break-even point. This forces companies to revise investment programs, delay the launch of new faces, and focus on the most efficient assets.
- Asian Markets and New Opportunities: Despite the difficulties, Russian coal is finding buyers in Asia, where its competitive price attracts some consumers. Specifically, in 2025, coal shipments to India increased significantly: in October, exports of Russian coal to India grew by 43% compared to September and doubled from the level of October 2024. Indian energy and metallurgical companies took advantage of price drops to procure additional volumes rejected by other players. Moreover, some unconventional buyers have shown interest – for instance, Taiwan began trial purchases of Russian thermal coal through Far Eastern ports this year, attracted by supply stability and discounts. China remains the largest Asian market: after some import reductions in the fall due to high domestic stocks, northern provinces in China are again seeing increasing demand as cold weather sets in, and market participants expect an uptick in Russian coal purchases in November-December. At the same time, South Korea has reduced imports from Russia, returning to traditional suppliers (Australia), demonstrating the competitive struggle for market share. Overall, the industry's prospects are tied to two factors: first, price balance recovery through the scaling back of unprofitable capacities (closure or temporary conservation of loss-making mines), and second, demand growth in Asia, which could gradually pull prices upwards. The Russian government has tasked agencies with developing measures to support coal producers – from subsidizing transportation tariffs to providing preferential loans – to mitigate the socio-economic impacts of the downturn in the industry.
Electric Power Sector
Russia's electric power complex in 2025 faced atypical loads but demonstrated resilience. An abnormally hot summer resulted in historical peaks in electricity consumption in several regions: widespread use of air conditioning and cooling equipment raised network loads to record levels. For example, on July 14, the United Energy System of the South recorded an absolute maximum of summer electricity consumption – 21,219 MW, exceeding the previous record set the year before. Similar records were noted in other systems – virtually all territorial energy systems updated their summer demand maxima. Furthermore, during the winter of 2024/25, the country also experienced unprecedented loads, exceeding summer figures, indicating overall growth in energy consumption as the economy rebounds and extreme weather events occur.
Despite increased loads, the energy system successfully tackled the challenges. Generating companies and dispatch services deployed the necessary reserve capacities: hydropower plants increased output during peak consumption hours, gas and coal-fired power plants were quickly ramped up to meet demand, and electricity transmission networks operated without significant disruptions. Even on the hottest days of summer, systemic outages were avoided – the margin of safety proved sufficient, confirming the reliability of the Russian Unified Energy System. In regions with particularly high loads (e.g., the North Caucasus and Southern Russia), mobile gas turbine units were launched, and energy transfers from neighboring regions were utilized. All this allowed for uninterrupted energy supply to consumers.
- Demand Records: The summer months of 2025 were marked by numerous new peaks in energy consumption. Heat waves in July raised daily electricity consumption to unprecedented levels in many subjects. Besides southern regions, significant load increases were also recorded in Siberia and central areas – increased use of air conditioning, cooling systems in enterprises, and raised industrial activity led to peak load hours exceeding last year's figures by 5-7%. The system operator of the EES reported dozens of new historical maxima established in different parts of the country during June-August. Overall electricity consumption in Russia for the first 10 months of 2025 rose approximately 2% year-on-year, reflecting economic recovery and increased electrical intensity in certain sectors.
- Network Reliability: The Russian energy system demonstrates a high level of reliability even under extreme loads. During the summer, energy companies successfully managed to handle peaks through redistributing power flows and activating reserves. For the autumn-winter period of 2025/26, thorough preparations have been made: key generating units have been repaired, additional supplies of fuel (coal, gas) have been arranged at thermal power plants, and emergency transfer modes between energy systems have been practiced. The Ministry of Energy predicts that even in the case of abnormal frosts this winter, generation and grid capacities will suffice to meet demand without introducing limitation schedules. Special attention is being paid to southern regions, where another increase in winter demand is expected – modernization of networks and installation of new substations in Krasnodar Krai, Dagestan, and Crimea should prevent local outages. Overall, industry experts note that lessons from previous years have been taken into account: dispatcher discipline has been strengthened, capacity maneuvering capabilities have been expanded, allowing for an optimistic outlook on the upcoming winter peak.
Renewable Energy
The renewable energy sector (RES) globally continues to experience rapid growth, reflecting an acceleration in the global energy transition. The year 2025 has set another record for the addition of new capacities: giant solar and wind farms are being commissioned in many countries, and investments in clean energy have reached historic highs. According to the International Energy Agency, global capital investments in renewable energy in 2025 for the first time exceeded investments in oil extraction: about $580 billion compared to $540 billion, respectively. This signals a shift in priorities – more countries and companies are betting on solar, wind, and other low-carbon technologies. China maintains its leadership in this area: the cumulative installed capacity of RES facilities in China has already surpassed that of fossil fuel power plants, underscoring the scale of the changes. The European Union is also increasing the share of “green” generation – by the end of the year, over 40% of electricity in the EU is generated from renewable sources (hydropower, wind, solar, and biomass). Such achievements reduce the demand for hydrocarbons in the energy sector and gradually lower the carbon intensity of the global economy.
In Russia, renewable energy is developing at more modest, yet steady, pace. The initial impact of high oil and gas prices last year has provided additional impetus to RES projects: both the state and businesses have recognized the importance of diversification. By the beginning of 2025, the total capacity of renewable generators (excluding large hydropower plants) reached approximately 6.6 GW, up from 6.5 GW the previous year. Throughout the current year, new solar and wind farms have been commissioned in various regions – from the Astrakhan region and Stavropol Krai (wind farms) to the Sakha Republic (Yakutia), where small solar plants for remote settlements have come online. As a result, by the end of 2025, it is expected that the total installed capacity of RES in Russia will exceed 7.5 GW, representing approximately a 15% annual increase. Although these figures are not comparable to world leaders, the trend for Russia remains upward.
- Growth of RES in Russia: The Russian renewable energy sector is increasing its volumes annually. Wind and solar photovoltaic stations constructed under support programs are gradually coming online, increasing the “green” segment. According to official data, for the first three quarters of 2025, electricity generation based on RES in Russia rose by approximately 20% compared to the same period last year. The largest increase originated from new wind farms in the southern part of the country and a large solar station in Orenburg region. Consequently, the share of RES (excluding hydropower) in the overall energy balance of Russia is approaching 1.5-2%. This is still a modest figure, but it is consistently growing.
- Prospects and Support: The development of renewable energy is viewed by authorities as a priority direction for the diversification of the fuel and energy complex and reducing the carbon footprint of the economy. A state program to stimulate RES (capacity supply contracts scheme) has been extended until 2035, which guarantees investors a return on their investments on the condition of localizing equipment. It is expected that by 2030, installed capacity for renewable sources may exceed 15 GW if all announced projects are realized. In addition to large-scale generation, attention is also paid to distributed energy: more and more enterprises and households are installing their own solar panels and small wind turbines, especially in regions supporting microgeneration. International cooperation also plays a role – Russian companies are studying the experience of leading countries in developing hydrogen energy and energy storage technologies for future integration. Ultimately, the gradual growth of RES strengthens energy security, opens up new industries (manufacturing equipment for RES), and improves the environmental situation.
