Global News from the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Sunday, January 11, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, Sanctions, Global Energy Markets, and Key Trends for Investors and Energy Companies
Current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) on January 11, 2026, are capturing the attention of investors and market participants with their scale and contradictory trends. Geopolitical tensions have reached new heights: the United States is intensifying sanctions in the energy sector, threatening a redistribution of global oil and gas flows. At the same time, global oil and gas markets are showing relative stability. Oil prices, after a decline in 2025, have stabilized at moderate levels, reflecting a balance between oversupply and restrained demand. The European gas market is navigating the depths of winter without shocks, as record gas storage and mild weather maintain prices at low levels, providing comfort to consumers. Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum: renewable energy sources are setting new generation records, although countries still rely on traditional hydrocarbons for the reliability of their energy systems. In Russia, following a surge in fuel prices last autumn, authorities continue to implement measures to stabilize the domestic oil products market. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors on this date.
Oil Market: Oversupply Keeps Prices at Moderate Levels
Global oil prices maintain relative stability at low levels, influenced by fundamental supply and demand factors. The North Sea Brent blend is trading around $60–62 per barrel, with American WTI in the range of $55–59. Current quotations are approximately 20% lower than a year ago, reflecting the continued market correction in 2025 after the peaks of the energy crisis in 2022-2023. Price pressures arise from concerns about overproduction: OPEC+ countries increased production by nearly 3 million barrels per day last year to regain market share, while the growth in global demand slowed amid moderate economic growth and increased energy efficiency.
Market participants note that the alliance of leading oil exporters is currently focusing on stability. At the beginning of January, eight key OPEC+ countries held a brief meeting and unanimously decided to maintain the current production restrictions until at least the end of the first quarter of 2026. This step is driven by the seasonally low winter demand in the Northern Hemisphere and the desire to prevent renewed market oversupply. Approval of the status quo on production was achieved despite political tensions within the cartel – the priority remains to avoid price declines. As a result of these preventive measures, oil is held within a narrow price corridor, and volatility is decreasing. Nevertheless, investors and oil companies are keenly monitoring geopolitical events that could impact oil supply, whether through sanctions or regional conflicts, although fundamental factors currently outweigh these concerns.
Gas Market: Europe Passes Winter Confidently, Prices Remain Low
The gas market is centered on Europe, which enters the New Year with a reliable cushion. By the beginning of winter, EU countries had injected record amounts of gas into their underground storage, reaching nearly 100% capacity by the end of 2025. Even now, in the midst of the heating season, reserves remain significantly above the average levels of past years, ensuring supply security. An additional factor of stability is the mild weather in Europe in December and early January, which has reduced fuel withdrawals from storage. Along with increasing liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, this keeps natural gas prices at moderate levels.
The benchmark TTF index at the beginning of January hovers around €25–30 per MWh, which is several times lower than the peak values from two years ago during the energy crisis. For European industry and consumers, such price levels provide considerable relief: many energy-intensive enterprises have resumed production, and heating bills for households have decreased compared to last winter. The market is prepared for potential weather surprises – short-term cold spells could temporarily increase demand and prices, but there are currently no systemic risks of fuel shortages. Additionally, global gas consumption is expected to rise in 2026 (according to IEA estimates, global gas consumption could reach a new record), primarily driven by Asia. However, at present, LNG and pipeline gas supplies are sufficient to meet demand, and Europe's diversification strategy for suppliers and energy conservation is proving effective.
International Politics: U.S. Sanctions Pressure and Crisis in Venezuela
Geopolitical factors continue to significantly influence sentiments in energy markets. At the beginning of 2026, the United States intensified sanctions related to Russian energy exports. President Donald Trump approved the promotion of a new law aimed at punishing countries that continue to purchase Russian oil and gas. This bipartisan bill envisions imposing extraordinarily high tariffs – up to 500% – on imports into the U.S. from countries deemed to be "knowingly trading" with Russia in energy resources. The goal is to deprive Moscow of revenues that Washington believes fuel the military conflict in Ukraine. This move targets major buyers of Russian oil, such as China, India, and a range of other Asian, African, and Latin American countries. These measures have already complicated U.S. relations with key emerging economies: Beijing openly protests against foreign interference in its trade, stating that normal economic ties between China and Russia are legitimate and should not be politicized. India, on its part, is attempting to maneuver – it has indeed reduced the share of Russian oil in its imports and is negotiating with Washington regarding the easing of previously imposed U.S. tariffs on Indian goods.
Another significant event is the sudden turn of events in Venezuela, which could impact the global oil market. In the early days of January, it became known that the U.S. conducted a military operation, resulting in the detention of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by American forces. President Trump stated that Washington is taking responsibility for assisting in the transitional management of the country until the opportunity arises to form a new government. This unprecedented action has sparked a strong reaction on the international stage: a number of countries, including China, condemned the violation of sovereignty and principles of international law. However, many investors in the oil and gas sector are now questioning whether a regime change in Caracas will lead to a gradual return of Venezuelan oil to the global market. Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, but its production has fallen drastically over the past decade due to sanctions and a management crisis. Experts agree that even with political changes, an immediate increase in exports is unlikely: the country’s oil industry requires substantial investments and modernization. Nevertheless, a potential lifting of sanctions against Venezuela in the future could introduce additional volumes of heavy oil to the market, serving as a new factor in the balance of power within OPEC+. Thus, political uncertainty – from sanctions wars to regime changes in oil-producing countries – remains a backdrop that FEC market participants cannot ignore, but for now, its influence is being offset by oversupply and coordinated actions among producers.
Asia: Balancing Import and Domestic Production
Asian countries, key drivers of demand for energy resources, are taking active steps to strengthen their energy security and meet the growing needs of their economies. Attention is particularly focused on the actions of India and China, whose choices significantly influence the global market:
- India: New Delhi is striving to reduce its dependence on hydrocarbon imports amid external pressure. Following the onset of the Ukraine crisis, India increased its purchases of cheap Russian oil, but in 2025, under the threat of Western trade restrictions, it slightly reduced the share of Russian oil in its imports. Concurrently, the country is betting on developing domestic resources: in August 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of a National Program for the Development of Deepwater Oil and Gas Fields. The aim is to open new offshore fields and increase production to satisfy the rapidly growing domestic demand, which is not met by current production. Furthermore, India is rapidly expanding its renewable energy capacity (solar and wind power plants) and liquefied gas infrastructure, seeking to diversify its energy mix. However, oil and gas remain the backbone of its energy supply, essential for industry and transport, so India must carefully balance the benefits of importing cheap fuel against the risks of sanctions.
- China: The world's second-largest economy continues its course towards enhancing its energy self-sufficiency, combining increased extraction of traditional resources with unprecedented investments in clean energy. In 2025, China boosted domestic coal and oil production to record levels to meet demand and reduce import dependence. At the same time, the share of coal in the country's electricity generation has dropped to a multi-year low (~55%) as billions of dollars are being invested in solar, wind, and hydropower plants. Analysts report that China introduced more renewable energy capacity in the first half of 2025 than the rest of the world combined, allowing it to even reduce absolute fossil fuel consumption in some regions. Nevertheless, in absolute terms, China's appetite for oil and gas remains enormous: imports of petroleum products, including Russian oil, continue to play a significant role in meeting needs, especially in transport and chemicals. Beijing is also actively booking long-term contracts for LNG supplies and developing nuclear energy. It is expected that in the upcoming 15th five-year plan (2026-2030), China will set even more ambitious goals for increasing the share of non-carbon energy while ensuring the reservation of traditional capacities – authorities are determined to prevent energy shortages, mindful of power outages from the previous decade. Thus, China is moving along two trajectories: implementing clean technologies of the future while reinforcing them with a reliable base of coal, oil, and gas in the present.
Energy Transition: Records in Green Energy and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global shift toward clean energy reached new heights in 2025, confirming its irreversibility. Many countries recorded record levels of electricity generation from renewable sources. According to estimates from international analytical centers, total production from wind and solar surpassed generation from all coal power plants combined for the first time. This historical milestone was reached due to a sharp increase in new capacities: in the first half of 2025, global solar power generation rose nearly 30% compared to the same period the previous year, while wind power increased by 7%. This was sufficient to cover the main increase in global electricity demand and allowed for a reduction in fossil fuel use in several regions.
However, the energy transition is accompanied by challenges related to the reliability of electricity supply. When demand increases beyond the introduction of "green" capacities or when weather conditions falter (calm, drought, abnormal cold), systems are forced to compensate for the gap through traditional generation. Thus, in 2025, the U.S., faced with an economic rebound, increased output at coal-fired power plants, as renewable sources were insufficient to cover the entire rise in consumption. In Europe, due to weak wind and hydropower resources in the summer and autumn, gas and coal burning partially increased to meet needs. These examples underline that coal, gas, and nuclear power plants still play a safety net role, compensating for the variability of sun and wind. Energy companies worldwide are actively investing in energy storage systems, smart grids, and other technologies to smooth out these fluctuations. However, in the near term, the global energy balance will remain hybrid: rapid growth of renewable energy goes hand in hand with maintaining a significant role for oil, gas, coal, and nuclear energy, all of which provide stability to energy systems.
Coal: Strong Demand Continues Despite Climate Agenda
The coal market demonstrates how inertial global energy consumption can be. Despite global efforts to decarbonize, coal use remains at record high levels. Preliminary data shows that in 2025 global coal demand rose by another 0.5% to approximately 8.85 billion tons – a historical maximum. The primary growth came from Asian economies. In China, which consumes more than half of the world's coal, coal-generated electricity, although relative usage has declined (thanks to record additions of renewable energy), remains colossal in absolute terms. Moreover, Beijing, concerned about energy supply risks, approved the construction of new coal-fired power plants in 2025 to prevent shortages. India and Southeast Asia also continue to actively burn coal to meet rising energy demand, as alternatives have not kept pace with economic growth.
Prices for thermal coal stabilized in 2025 after sharp fluctuations in previous years. In benchmark Asian markets (such as Newcastle coal), quotes were maintained at levels significantly below the peak of 2022, but still above pre-crisis backgrounds. This encourages mining companies to maintain high levels of production. International experts predict that global coal consumption will plateau by the end of the decade and then decline as climate policies strengthen and new renewable capacities come online. However, in the short term, coal still plays a vital role in the energy balance of many countries. It provides base generation and heating for industry, meaning that until effective replacements are introduced, demand for coal will remain steady. Thus, the confrontation between environmental goals and economic realities continues to define the fate of the coal industry: the downward trend is evident, but coal's "swan song" has not yet been sung.
Russian Oil Products Market: Fuel Price Stabilization Through Government Action
In the domestic fuel segment in Russia, there has recently been relative stabilization achieved through unprecedented government measures. In August-September 2025, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel on Russian exchanges hit record highs, exceeding even the crisis levels of 2023. This was caused by a combination of high seasonal demand (summer transport and harvest campaign) and several supply constraints, including unscheduled repairs and accidents at several oil refineries (ORPs), which reduced output. To avoid shortages and protect consumers from price shocks, authorities quickly intervened in the market mechanisms and implemented an emergency plan to normalize the situation:
- Export Ban: In mid-August, the government imposed a complete ban on the export of automotive gasoline and diesel, extending it to all producers – from independent plants to the largest oil companies. This measure, extended until the end of September, returned hundreds of thousands of tons of fuel to the domestic market that had previously been exported monthly.
- Partial Resumption of Supplies: Starting in October 2025, as the domestic market became saturated, restrictions began to gradually ease. Major refineries were allowed to resume some export shipments under strict government control, while export barriers largely remained in place for smaller traders and intermediaries. This way, the export channel was cautiously opened to avoid triggering a new price spike domestically.
- Fuel Distribution Control: One of the measures was to enhance control over the movement of oil products within the country. Producers were mandated to prioritize domestic consumer requests and were prohibited from engaging in mutual purchases of fuel on the exchange between companies (which had previously inflated prices). The government and specialized agencies (Ministry of Energy, FAS) developed mechanisms for direct contracts between refineries and gas station networks, bypassing exchange intermediaries to ensure that fuel reached gas stations at fair prices.
- Market Subsidization: Financial instruments were also deployed to curb prices. The state increased the volume of budgetary subsidies to oil refining enterprises and expanded the use of dampening mechanisms (reverse excise), which compensates companies for lost revenue when selling fuel on the domestic market instead of exporting. These payments encourage oil companies to direct sufficient volumes of gasoline and diesel to gas stations domestically without fear of losses.
The complex of measures has already yielded results by the beginning of 2026. Wholesale fuel prices have retreated from peak values, while retail prices at gas stations have risen only moderately (about 5–6% for the entire year of 2025, which is close to the inflation rate). The physical shortage of gasoline and diesel in the domestic market was prevented – gas stations are well-stocked with fuel, including in rural areas during the autumn work period. The Russian government assures that it will maintain strict control over the situation: at the first sign of a new imbalance, fresh restrictions or interventions from state fuel reserves can be quickly implemented. For FEC market participants, this policy means predictability in domestic prices, although fuel exporters must cope with partial restrictions. Overall, the stabilization of the domestic fuel market reinforces confidence that even amid external challenges – sanctions and volatility in global prices – it will be possible to keep domestic prices for gasoline and diesel within acceptable limits, protecting consumer and economic interests.
