Oil and Gas News, Saturday, February 14, 2026: OPEC+ Leans Towards Production Increase in April, Oil Market on the Defensive
As of February 13, 2026 (exact time of data capture not specified), the global oil and gas market has entered a re-evaluation phase: expectations for a resumption of OPEC+ production increases in April have intensified pressure on oil prices, while EIA statistics indicated a significant rise in U.S. oil inventories. Concurrently, the IEA maintains a cautious tone regarding demand in its February report and warns of the risk of oversupply in 2026. For investors in oil, gas, and energy, this shifts the focus towards the resilience of refining margins, the supply chains of petroleum products, and the quality of investments in electricity and renewable energy sources (RES).
- Oil: Brent at approximately $67/barrel, WTI around $62–63/barrel; the market is pricing in a higher supply for the second quarter.
- Gas: TTF around €32/MWh; Europe enters the injection season for gas storage with low inventory levels (exact figures as of February 13 are unspecified).
- Electricity: For delivery on February 14, several zones maintain triple-digit pricing levels — grid investments and connections regulations become key drivers for RES.
Oil Market: OPEC+, Demand, and Expectations for 2026
A crucial development for oil on this day was the discussion within OPEC+ regarding the potential return to production increases starting April 2026 after a pause in January-March. The market interprets this as an effort to secure market share ahead of summer demand, even if the balance for the second quarter appears softer than seasonal norms. Additionally, the IEA in its February report estimates global demand growth in 2026 at approximately 850,000 barrels/day, while projecting that global supply could increase by about 2.4 million barrels/day in 2026. This heightens price sensitivity to actual export flows and compliance with quotas, which is critical for hedging strategies and upstream investment operations.
For upstream investments, this translates to higher cost expectations and cash flow resilience. "Long" projects are scrutinized more rigorously, while the market tends to favor companies with strong free cash flow and predictable capital policies. Geopolitical factors (Middle East) remain a source of volatility, but their impact on prices as of February 13, 2026, remains unspecified.
Prices and Indicators for February 13-14
- Brent Oil: approximately $67/barrel.
- WTI Oil: approximately $62–63/barrel.
- TTF Gas (Europe): approximately €32/MWh.
- Henry Hub Gas (USA): approximately $3.17/MMBtu.
- JKM LNG (Asia): approximately $11/MMBtu.
- Newcastle Coal: approximately $115–116/ton.
- Electricity (Nord Pool, delivery on February 14): Germany ~€103.5/MWh; Netherlands ~€95/MWh; France ~€34/MWh; other zones — unspecified.
- EU ETS (carbon): approximately €73/ton CO₂ as of February 12; as of February 13 — unspecified.
USA: Stocks, Refining, and Signals for Petroleum Products
U.S. EIA statistics have set the tone for discussions regarding the "physical" dynamics of the market. For the week ending February 6, commercial oil inventories increased by 8.5 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels. Refineries processed around 16.0 million barrels/day, with capacity utilization at approximately 89%. Meanwhile, gasoline stocks rose by 1.2 million barrels, while distillate stocks fell by 2.7 million barrels.
For the petroleum products segment, this results in a divergent balance: with comfortable oil inventories, the market may experience localized tightness in diesel and jet fuel, especially if seasonal weather drives demand upward. This is important for investors, as refining margins and U.S. exports of petroleum products to Europe often act as a buffer for the global fuel market.
Refineries and Petroleum Products: Operational Events and Market Impact
Operational risks in refining are once again in focus. In Russia, it has been reported that the Volgograd refinery halted operations following a fire caused by a drone attack, affecting a major primary processing unit. This has an indirect impact on the global oil market, but for the regional balance of petroleum products (primarily diesel), such events heighten risk premiums, increase demand for imports, and may support European refining margins.
In Europe, compliance with sanctions is altering even operational models: TotalEnergies has taken full operational control over the Zeeland refinery in the Netherlands while retaining a stake with Lukoil, concentrating crude procurement and petroleum product sales within a single management framework. In Africa, a key signal from Nigeria: Dangote has resumed operations at a large atmospheric distillation unit, with a test run of the gasoline block expected in the coming days — this potentially boosts the substitution of petroleum products in the region and alters the regional demand for oil.
Gas and LNG: Europe Balancing Between Gas Storage and New Supply Regimes
The European gas market remains sensitive to storage levels and competition for LNG. TTF is maintaining around €32/MWh; however, for investors, the trajectory of gas storage injection is more crucial: public estimates indicate that the fill level of European storage facilities is around 35–36% (exact figure as of February 13, 2026 — unspecified). Additionally, the EU has approved a phased ban on imports of Russian gas by the end of 2027 (with LNG being phased out earlier), solidifying Europe's structural dependence on the global LNG market and enhancing the value of flexible supply arrangements.
In Asia, the JKM marker at around $11/MMBtu reflects relatively calm demand, but supply is contingent on the timelines of mega-projects. There have been reports of a delay in the first phase of the expansion of Qatari LNG capacities to the end of 2026. For Europe and Asia’s markets, this maintains a premium for "ready molecules" and underscores the importance of investments in regasification, gas infrastructure, and electricity flexibility.
Electricity and Renewable Energy: Prices, Grids, and Investment Cycle
As of February 14, electricity prices in Europe, based on Nord Pool data, remain varied: Germany at around €103.5/MWh, Netherlands around €95/MWh, France around €34/MWh. The divergence is explained by the structure of generation (nuclear, gas, RES), the availability of interconnections, and grid constraints. The investment cycle in the energy sector is increasingly concentrated on infrastructure: in the UK, subsidy contracts for record levels of solar generation have been awarded, while the dispute between London and Paris over financing additional interconnection cables highlights that grid projects are becoming a political factor in the pace of RES implementation.
On the continent, "network costs" are becoming more pronounced: in Germany, a mechanism is being discussed whereby RES developers will bear a greater share of the costs for connecting to the grid. For RES projects, this may mean a reassessment of IRR and a more targeted selection of sites. France is focusing its strategy on the growth of decarbonized electricity (nuclear and RES) and the stimulation of electrification of demand, which strengthens the structural demand for investment in grids and flexibility (storage, demand management).
Coal: Price Benchmark, Asia, and Carbon Risks
Coal remains a "safety net" resource in the global energy landscape, particularly in Asia. Newcastle coal prices hold around $115–116/ton, maintaining significance for marginal electricity generation and portfolio hedging. In Europe, coal's role is determined by CO₂ pricing and energy system regimes: sharp fluctuations in EU ETS prices temporarily alter the economics of coal generation, but do not remove the long-term constraints on financing coal assets and projects.
Regulation, Sanctions, and Forecast
Regulatory and sanction risks remain systemic for the oil and gas sector. In Europe, turbulence in CO₂ pricing increases uncertainty for investments in decarbonization, while in the oil and gas block, shifts in sanction regimes can quickly redistribute oil flows and raw materials for refineries (including Venezuelan crude). In the coming days, the base scenario for oil suggests consolidation in the $65–70 Brent range, dominated by OPEC+'s supply concerns.
Scenarios for the Coming Days:
- Base scenario: oil within the range, gas — influenced by weather and storage dynamics, electricity — under the influence of grid constraints.
- Upward risk: infrastructure disruptions and tightening sanctions raise risk premiums for oil and diesel, supporting refining margins and petroleum product prices.
- Downward risk: acceleration in production growth expectations and increased availability of heavy crude put downward pressure on oil prices and upstream investments.
Checklist for Market Participants in Oil and Gas Sector:
- OPEC+ communications leading up to the March 1 meeting;
- Weekly EIA data on oil, gas, and petroleum products;
- Trends in European gas storage and the competitive landscape of the LNG market (as of February 13 — unspecified);
- News regarding refineries (repairs, incidents) and petroleum product supply chains;
- Decisions on grids, interconnections, and carbon management affecting electricity and RES.
