Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Friday, February 13, 2026: CPI Inflation in the US and Russia, CBR Rate Decision, Eurozone GDP, and Reporting from Major Public Companies. Analyzing the Impact on S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX.
For investors, Friday, February 13, 2026, is not about the symbolism of the date, but rather a rare concentration of macro signals capable of quickly shifting expectations regarding interest rates, currencies, and risk appetite. During a single session, the market will receive: inflation (CPI) data from Switzerland and the US, an estimate of Eurozone GDP, the Central Bank of Russia's decision on the key rate, and a press conference from the regulator, followed by Russia's CPI in the evening. Amidst this backdrop, reports from a number of major public companies from the US, Canada, and Europe will also be released, as well as a block of reporting from Japan. Such a combination often intensifies intraday volatility, increases sensitivity to data surprises, and provokes rotations among sectors (such as finance, real estate, consumer demand, energy infrastructure, and commodities).
Economic Events of the Day: Schedule for Moscow
- 10:30 — Switzerland: January CPI
- 13:00 — Eurozone: GDP (estimate/revision) for Q4
- 13:30 — Russia: CBR key rate decision
- 15:00 — Russia: CBR press conference
- 16:30 — US: January CPI
- 19:00 — Russia: January CPI
For a global portfolio, this sequence creates a "chain" of influence: initially Europe with Swiss and Eurozone data, followed by Russia through the key rate and the CBR's rhetoric, and finally a key impulse from the US through the CPI, after which Russian inflation may adjust rate expectations domestically as the day concludes.
Switzerland: CPI as a Signal for Defensive Currencies and European Assets
Swiss inflation is traditionally important not only locally. The franc is often perceived by the market as a defensive currency, and any deviations in CPI from expectations can quickly impact interest rate expectations and the dynamics of CHF. For investors, this primarily means a currency channel: the movement of EUR/CHF and the overall "tone" of risk-off/risk-on for the European session. If CPI turns out to be higher than consensus, the market tends to price in a tougher trajectory for financial conditions—this can increase pressure on high-value segments in Europe through rising yields. Conversely, weaker CPI reduces the risk of a "rate reassessment" and typically supports cyclical stories unless the macro backdrop deteriorates.
Eurozone: GDP as a Check on Demand and Rate Resilience
The publication of Eurozone GDP is crucial for assessing how well the economy is absorbing the prevailing financial conditions. For Euro Stoxx 50 and the broader European basket, it is not just about tenths of growth, but rather about the balance among consumption, investment, and export. A stronger-than-expected GDP usually increases the likelihood of a more "patient" policy stance, which may lead to higher yields and trigger selective revaluation of "long" growth stories. Conversely, weaker GDP raises the attractiveness of defensive sectors and supports expectations of a gentler rate trajectory, often benefiting rate-sensitive segments, including real estate and certain European tech stocks. For investors from the CIS, the currency aspect is also significant: the reaction of EUR to USD sets the backdrop for a number of commodity and export stories in emerging markets.
Russia: CBR Rate Decision and Press Conference as Drivers for MOEX and the Ruble
At 13:30 MSK, the CBR's decision on the key rate will be announced, followed by the press conference at 15:00, which often provides the market with more than just the number itself. If the regulator signals a prolonged period of tight conditions, it supports the ruble through the interest rate differential, but simultaneously increases the discounting of future cash flows and worsens internal demand sensitivity. In such a regime, exporters and companies with high foreign currency revenue tend to benefit, while segments tied to the credit cycle (such as certain developers, consumer stories, and companies with high debt loads) become more vulnerable.
If the rhetoric shifts towards a softer trajectory (or the market receives a signal about an earlier pivot), short-term support may shift towards "internal demand" and certain financial assets; however, this also increases currency risk and enhances the significance of evening CPI in Russia: weak disinflation under soft rhetoric usually intensifies uncertainty surrounding the ruble and yields.
USA: CPI — The Key Global Trigger of the Day for S&P 500 and Yields
The American CPI at 16:30 MSK is a critical release for global risk appetite, the dollar, and the yield curve. Typically, the market does not trade "inflation as such," but rather deviations from expectations and the implications for future rate trajectories. A hotter CPI usually results in rising yields and a strengthening USD, which exerts pressure on long-duration securities (often affecting tech and certain consumer segments) and increases volatility in the S&P 500 index. A softer CPI, on the other hand, supports risk, improves conditions for multiplier growth, and often enhances demand for quality growth.
Notably, part of the corporate reporting in North America is released before the US market opens—meaning that the market receives "micro" news ahead of the CPI, after which it may reassess their significance in light of macro surprises. This heightens the likelihood of sharp intraday movements in stocks, especially in rate-sensitive sectors.
Russia: Evening CPI as an Update on the Inflation Profile and Rates
The publication of CPI in Russia at 19:00 MSK completes the chain of macro events. For local assets, this can serve as a "second round" of reaction following the CBR's decision: if inflation is higher than expected, the market is more likely to reassess expectations regarding the real rate and the duration of the tight regime. Practically, this impacts OFZs, the banking sector, credit spreads, and the ruble. If CPI confirms a slowdown, the chances increase for a more stable rate profile, thereby improving predictability for companies focused on domestic consumption and reducing pressure on multipliers.
Corporate Reports: Premarket (US/Canada/Europe) and Asian Session
Below are key public companies whose reports are tied to February 13, 2026. For investors, it is essential not only to focus on profit numbers but also on guidance, comments regarding demand, margins, and capital expenditures—as these elements shape mid-term sector revaluations.
Before the Market Opens (Premarket) — US and Canada
- Moderna (MRNA) — Focus on revenue from the portfolio, spending rates, and pipeline forecasts; sensitive to overall risk-on sentiment post-CPI.
- The Wendy’s Company (WEN) — Margins, comparable sales dynamics, comments on consumer demand, and pricing pressure.
- Cameco (CCJ) — Uranium cycle, contracts, and price environment; often seen as a commodity hedge and beneficiary of the energy transition.
- Advance Auto Parts (AAP) — Demand for auto components and operational recovery quality; sensitive to consumer trends and financing costs.
- Enbridge (ENB) — Dividends, capital expenditures, cash flow resilience; "income infrastructure" depends on rates through required yields.
- TC Energy (TRP) — Rate base and investment program; investors are watchful for cash flow stability and regulatory risks.
- Magna International (MGA) — Automotive supply chain, orders, and margins; sensitive to the cycle and rates through automobile demand.
- Sensient Technologies (SXT) — Defensive profile of consumer goods/ingredients, but margins and currency effects are important.
- Colliers (CIGI) — Real estate and transaction market; highly sensitive to rates and financing expectations.
- Essent Group (ESNT) — Mortgage insurance; dependent on the housing market’s state and credit quality.
Europe: Major Issuers
- NatWest Group (NWG) — Bank margins, asset quality, and risk costs; reactions are heightened upon changes in rate expectations.
- Norsk Hydro (NHY) — Aluminum, energy costs, and global demand; crucial for assessing the commodity cycle in Europe.
Asia: Key Companies in Japan (Reporting in Asian Session)
- ENEOS Holdings — Energy sector, refining margins, and capital expenditure strategies.
- Dentsu Group — Advertising market and corporate budgets; an indicator of business activity.
- Kirin Holdings — Consumer sector, cost inflation, and demand.
- Terumo — Medical technology and demand resilience in healthcare.
Key Events of the Day: Where to Expect Maximum Volatility
- 13:30–15:00 MSK — Russia: Rate decision and press conference. The market will reassess not only the decision but also the CBR’s "reaction function" to inflation and currency movements.
- 16:30 MSK — US: CPI. Typically the main impulse for yields and the dollar, which quickly translates into equities, commodities, and emerging market currencies.
- 19:00 MSK — Russia: CPI. This refines the inflation profile post-CBR decision and influences expectations regarding the duration of the tight regime.
- Reports Before US Market Opens — The premarket in specific stocks might establish "local trends," but the CPI can amplify or undermine them.
What Investors Should Watch For
The focus of the day should be on risk management and discipline regarding exposures rather than an attempt to "predict" a single release. Practically, this means: (1) check currency limits and portfolio sensitivity to rates before the CBR decision; (2) in the interim before the US CPI — monitor the tone of the CBR's rhetoric and the ruble/yield reaction as an early sentiment indicator; (3) post-US CPI — primarily assess yields and the dollar, as they dictate the direction for global risk-on/risk-off sentiment; (4) post-Russian CPI — evaluate how expectations around the real rate are changing and which sectors of MOEX appear more resilient in the new configuration.
From the perspective of the global equity market (S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225), the key scenario of the day will be determined by whether inflation in the US acts as a "surprise" relative to expectations. Corporate reports from major issuers create selective opportunities, but on such a macro day, interest rates, yields, and currencies typically define the ultimate risk picture.
