Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of January 14, 2026: Oil and Gas Prices, Sanctions Policy, Supply and Demand Balance, Refinery Market, Renewable Energy Sources, and Key Trends in the Global Energy Sector.
The current events in the global fuel and energy complex as of January 14, 2026, are characterized by increasing geopolitical tensions and continuing price pressure from an oversupply. Diplomatic efforts at resolution are ongoing; however, the conflict surrounding Ukraine remains far from resolved, and the United States is preparing to tighten sanctions on the export of Russian energy resources. At the same time, the oil market remains oversaturated: Brent crude prices are holding around $62-$63 per barrel, nearly 20% lower than a year ago, reflecting a surplus of supply and moderate demand. The European gas market is showing relative stability: gas stocks in EU storage facilities, although decreasing during the peak of winter, still exceed 55% of capacity, keeping prices at a moderate level (~€30/MWh). Concurrently, the global energy transition is gaining momentum; 2025 saw record levels of solar and wind power installations, but countries are still relying on traditional oil, gas, and coal to ensure the reliability of their energy systems. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors on this date.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Weak Demand Keep Prices Low
Global oil prices remain under downward pressure due to a surplus of supply and insufficient demand. The North Sea benchmark Brent is trading around $63 per barrel, while American WTI is around $59. These levels are approximately 15–20% lower than last year, signaling a continuing market correction following the price surge of previous years. A combination of several factors is supporting the current situation in the oil market:
- Increase in Non-OPEC Production: Global oil supply is increasing due to active production in non-OPEC+ countries. In 2025, shipments from Brazil, Guyana, and other nations saw notable growth. For example, production in Brazil reached a record 3.8 million barrels/day, while Guyana ramped up production to 0.9 million barrels/day, with oil exports reaching new markets. Iran and Venezuela also slightly increased exports thanks to partial easing of restrictions, adding more oil to the global market.
- OPEC+ Precautionary Stance: OPEC+ countries are in no rush to cut production again. Despite falling prices, official production quotas remain unchanged after previous cuts. As a result, additional OPEC+ oil remains in the market, and the organization aims to maintain market share, allowing for lower prices in the short term.
- Demand Slowdown: Global oil demand is growing at more modest rates. Analysts estimate that consumption growth in 2025 was less than 1 million barrels/day, compared to 2-3 million barrels/day the previous year. Economic growth in China and several developed countries has slowed to around 4% per year, limiting fuel consumption growth. High prices from previous years have also spurred energy conservation and a shift to alternative energy sources, cooling demand for hydrocarbons.
- Geopolitical Uncertainty: The ongoing conflict and sanctions create contradictory factors for the oil market. On one hand, risks of supply disruptions due to sanctions or escalation of the conflict support some premium in prices. On the other hand, the absence of noticeable supply disruptions and reports of continuing negotiations between major powers somewhat ease market participants' fears. As a result, prices fluctuate within a relatively narrow range, lacking impetus for either growth or collapse.
Overall, supply currently exceeds demand, creating a near surplus situation in the oil market. Global commercial oil and petroleum product inventories continue to grow. Brent and WTI quotes remain securely below the highs of 2022–2023. Many investors and oil companies are incorporating "low" prices into their strategies: several forecasts indicate that in the first quarter of 2026, the average Brent price could drop to $55–60 per barrel if current oversupply persists. In these conditions, oil companies are focusing on cost control and selective investments, favoring short-term projects and those in the natural gas sector.
Natural Gas Market: Europe Navigates Winter without Crisis
On the gas market, the spotlight is on Europe, where a relatively calm situation persists amid the peak of winter. EU countries entered the heating season with high stocks: by the start of January, the average filling level of European underground gas storage facilities exceeded 60% (compared to record 70% a year prior). Even after several weeks of active gas withdrawals, storage facilities remain more than half full, providing a buffer for the energy system. Favorable factors that support the stability of the European gas market include:
- Record LNG Imports: The European Union is maximizing its use of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) capabilities. In 2025, the total LNG import to Europe rose by about 25% to approximately 130 billion cubic meters per year, compensating for the cessation of most pipeline gas supplies from Russia. In December, LNG vessels continued to actively arrive at EU terminals, covering increased winter demand.
- Moderate Demand and Mild Weather: So far, winter in Europe has been relatively mild, and the energy system is managing without extreme loads. Industrial gas consumption remains restrained due to last year’s high prices and energy conservation measures. Wind and solar generation at the beginning of the 2025/26 winter showed high results, which also reduced gas consumption for electricity generation.
- Diversification of Supplies: The European Union has recently turned to new energy import routes. In addition to LNG, pipelines from Norway and North Africa are fully operational. Capacity at terminals and interconnections within Europe has increased, allowing gas to be swiftly rerouted to where it is needed. This smooths out local imbalances and prevents price spikes.
Thanks to these factors, market prices for gas in Europe remain at relatively low levels. Futures at the TTF hub trade around €30/MWh (about $370 per thousand cubic meters) – significantly lower than the peak values of the 2022 crisis. Although quotes have recently risen slightly (by 7–8%) due to a brief cold snap and repairs at some fields, the market overall remains balanced. Moderate gas prices positively affect European industry and electricity generation, reducing enterprise costs and tariff pressure on consumers. Ahead, Europe must navigate the remaining winter months: even if the cold intensifies, the accumulated stocks are likely sufficient to avoid shortages. Analysts estimate that by the end of winter, around 35-40% of gas may remain in underground storage, significantly above critical levels of previous years. However, some risk is presented by a possible revival of Asian demand – in the second quarter of 2026, competition between Europe and Asia for new LNG supplies may intensify if economic growth in Asian countries continues.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: Tightening Measures by the U.S. and Lack of Breakthroughs in Negotiations
The geopolitical landscape continues to exert significant influence over energy markets. In recent months, diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict in Eastern Europe have been undertaken: since November 2025, a series of consultations have taken place among representatives of the U.S., EU, Ukraine, and Russia. However, to date, these negotiations have yielded no tangible progress. Moscow has not shown any readiness to make concessions, while Kyiv and its allies insist on acceptable security guarantees. Amidst the prolonged standoff, Washington signals its readiness to intensify sanctions pressure.
New U.S. Sanctions Bill. In early January, the Biden administration publicly supported a bipartisan bill proposing strict measures against countries that assist in circumventing sanctions or trade actively with Russia. In particular, so-called "secondary sanctions" are proposed – restrictions on buyers of Russian oil and gas. Major importers of Russian energy resources, such as China, India, Turkey, and several other Asian countries, may find themselves targeted. Washington signals that if these countries do not reduce purchases from Moscow, they may face restrictions on access to American markets or 100% tariffs on their exports to the U.S. The bill has already received the "green light" from the White House and may soon be voted on in Congress. For the global oil and gas market, such a move would be unprecedented: effectively, some buyers could end up under sanctions, which could redistribute oil trade flows and complicate the pricing situation.
Reactions and Market Risks. Major consumers, especially China and India, are in the spotlight. India has been benefiting for an extended period from significant discounts on Russian Urals oil (up to $5 off Brent prices) in exchange for maintaining purchase volumes – this "preferential" setup has allowed New Delhi to increase imports of Russian crude oil and petroleum products. China, for its part, has also increased imports from Russia, becoming the main market for Russian oil after the European embargo was imposed. U.S. plans to implement secondary sanctions face sharp disapproval from Beijing and New Delhi: these countries declare their intention to defend their energy security. Likely, if the law is passed, they will seek ways to circumvent the new restrictions – for example, through settlements in national currencies, shadow tanker fleets, or processing Russian oil in third countries for re-export. Markets are watching the situation closely: threats of sanctions add uncertainty and may increase price volatility, especially for Urals oil and in the tanker transport market. Meanwhile, existing sanctions remain unchanged, and there are no significant disruptions observed in the supply of Russian oil to the global market – volumes have been redirected to Asia, albeit at a discount.
U.S.-Russia Negotiations. Despite the tough rhetoric, the dialogue channel between Washington and Moscow remains open. After a meeting between leaders in August 2025 (where it was decided to continue consultations), special representatives from both sides have discussed parameters for a potential agreement several times. In December, the U.S. side proposed a framework plan for Ukraine's security in exchange for a gradual easing of some energy sanctions, but Moscow demanded that its conditions be taken into account, including the lifting of certain export restrictions and guarantees against NATO's military infrastructure expansion. These disagreements have not yet been resolved. Meanwhile, U.S. allies in Europe have stated their readiness to maintain pressure on Russia until the situation improves – as new EU restrictions on maritime transport of Russian petroleum products above the price cap have come into effect. Thus, political tensions remain: the prospects for a swift lifting of sanctions are slim. For investors in the energy sector, this means that sanction risks will continue to be taken into account when planning trading operations and investments, particularly in projects related to Russia.
Venezuela: Shift of Course and Growth Potential in Oil Production
Another significant event that could impact the long-term balance of power in the oil market is the changes in Venezuela. By the end of 2025, the situation around this South American country changed dramatically: Nicolás Maduro's government effectively lost control after he was detained during a special operation with the assistance of foreign forces. The United States has announced its support for the establishment of a transitional administration in Caracas and aims to involve American oil companies in the recovery of Venezuela's oil sector. For years, the country, possessing the largest proven oil reserves in the world, has produced less than 1 million barrels per day due to sanctions, lack of investment, and infrastructure collapse.
The new political conditions open up the prospect for gradually increasing Venezuelan oil production. Analysts estimate that with relative stability in the country and an influx of investments from the U.S. and other countries, production in Venezuela could rise by 200–300 thousand barrels per day in the next year or two. JPMorgan's optimistic scenario suggests reaching a level of 1.3–1.4 million barrels/day within two years (up from about 1.1 million in 2025), and over the next decade, reaching 2.5 million barrels/day if significant modernization projects are implemented. Already in the first days following the change of power, reports emerged of plans to audit the status of fields and infrastructure at PDVSA and to involve international partners in restarting idle wells.
However, experts warn that rapid results should not be expected. Venezuela's oil sector requires extensive upgrade – from refurbishing refineries to investing in port facilities. The necessary investments are estimated in the tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars. Additionally, questions remain about the legitimacy of the regime change and long-term political risks. Some countries – allies of the former authorities – condemned the external interference; Russia, for instance, stated that control over Venezuelan oil should not pass to the U.S. This indicates that diplomatic frictions around the Venezuelan issue may arise.
For the global market, an increase in exports from Venezuela in the coming months is likely to be small but symbolically significant. There are already reports of resumed supplies of heavy Venezuelan oil to American refineries in the Gulf of Mexico under licenses granted by the new administration. In the medium term, additional Venezuelan volumes could increase competition in the heavy oil segment dominated by OPEC. According to Goldman Sachs, if production in Venezuela were to rise to 2 million barrels/day in the future, it could push equilibrium prices for Brent down by $3–4 by 2030. Although such volumes are still a distant goal, investors are factoring in the emergence of a "new-old" player in the market. Overall, the situation in Venezuela adds yet another factor to the global oversupply, strengthening expectations that the period of relatively low oil prices may persist.
Energy Transition: Record Green Generation and the Role of Coal
The global energy landscape continues to shift toward low-carbon sources, although fossil fuels retain a significant share in the energy balance. 2025 was a record year for renewable energy: according to the International Energy Agency, approximately 580 GW of new renewable capacity was added worldwide. More than 90% of all new power plants launched last year operate on solar, wind, or hydro power. As a result, the share of renewable generation in electricity production reached historic highs in several countries.
Europe and the U.S. In the European Union, the share of electricity generated from renewables exceeded 50% for the first time by the end of the year. Wind farms in the North Sea, solar farms in Southern Europe, and bioenergy have provided the main increase. This allowed the EU to reduce coal and gas consumption for generation by 5% and 3% respectively compared to the previous year. The share of coal in the EU's energy balance has returned to a declining trajectory after a temporary spike in 2022–2023. In the U.S., the renewable energy sector has also reached new heights: large solar stations have been launched in Texas and California, and wind installations in the Midwest. As a result, nearly 25% of U.S. electricity now comes from renewables – the highest in history. Government initiatives and tax incentives (such as those under the Federal Inflation Reduction Act) are stimulating further investments in clean energy.
Asia and Emerging Markets. There is also robust growth in renewable energy in China and India, although absolute fossil fuel consumption continues to rise there. China set a record with 130 GW of solar panels and 50 GW of wind energy installed in one year, bringing total renewable capacity up to 1.2 TW. However, the rapidly-growing economy demands increasing amounts of electricity: to avoid shortages, Beijing is concurrently ramping up coal extraction and building coal-fired power plants. Consequently, China still generates around 60–65% of its electricity from coal. India faces a similar situation: the country is increasing solar and wind capacities (over 20 GW were installed in 2025), but more than 70% of Indian electricity continues to be generated in coal-fired stations. To meet rising demand, New Delhi has greenlit the construction of new highly efficient coal blocks, even in the face of climate goals. Many other developing economies in Asia and Africa (Indonesia, Vietnam, South Africa, etc.) are also balancing the development of renewables with the need to expand traditional generation to ensure base load.
Challenges for Energy Systems. The rapid growth of solar and wind shares poses new challenges for energy operators. Intermittent fluctuations in renewable generation require the development of energy storage systems and backup capacities. Already, in Europe and the U.S., during peak loads or unfavorable weather conditions, grid operators must engage gas and even coal plants to balance the system. In 2025, several countries reported moments where, due to calm weather and nighttime hours, the share of renewables fell, with traditional power plants temporarily bearing the main load. To enhance the flexibility of energy systems, projects for energy storage are being scaled – from industrial batteries to "green" hydrogen production for seasonal storage. Nevertheless, fossil fuel reserves remain critically important for stable energy supply. It is forecasted that global coal demand in 2026 will remain close to record levels (around 8.8 billion tons per year) and will start to decline significantly only by the end of the decade as clean technologies become more prevalent and countries fulfill their climate commitments.
Refined Products and Refining Market: Oversupply Lowers Fuel Prices
The global refined products market at the beginning of 2026 is in a consumer-friendly state. Prices for key fuel types – gasoline and diesel – are being maintained at levels significantly below last year’s, largely due to the cheaper oil and expanded supply from refineries. Throughout 2025, new refining capacities came online, intensifying competition among refined product producers and increasing the available volumes of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the international market.
Growth of Capacities in Asia and the Middle East. The largest investment projects in refining initiated in recent years are starting to yield results. In China, several modern refineries ("petrochemical complexes") have reached full operational capacity, bringing the total installed capacity of the country to approximately 20 million barrels/day – the highest in the world. Beijing had planned to cap national capacity at 1 billion tons per year (about 20 million barrels/day), and this threshold is nearly reached. The oversupply of refining capacity within the country is already leading to some smaller, older factories operating at reduced loads or likely facing closure in the coming years. In the Middle East, the gigantic Al-Zour refinery in Kuwait has been fully operational, and expansion projects in Saudi Arabia (including new complexes involving foreign partners) are underway. These new facilities are aimed not only at domestic demand but also at exporting fuel – primarily to Asian countries and Africa, where the demand for refined products is still growing.
Stabilizing the Diesel Market in Europe. The European Union, which faced tension in the diesel market during 2022-2023 due to the withdrawal from Russian supplies, successfully reoriented logistics and avoided shortages in 2025. Diesel and jet fuel imports into Europe from the Middle East, India, China, and the U.S. increased, compensating for the loss of Russian exports. India's role is particularly noticeable: its refineries, receiving discounted Russian oil, produce excess volumes of diesel, a significant portion of which is then directed to Europe and African countries. This "flow" has helped keep European diesel prices stable even during peak summer demand. Within the EU, refiners have also increased product output: Mediterranean and Eastern European refineries operated at high capacity, partially offsetting the closure of some outdated facilities in Western Europe. As a result, wholesale diesel prices in Europe decreased by approximately 15% by the end of 2025 compared to the beginning of the year, helping to alleviate inflationary pressure.
Refining Margins and Outlook. For the refining companies themselves, the situation is dual: on one hand, cheaper oil reduces feedstock costs, while on the other, oversupply and competition lower margins. After record-high margins observed in 2022, refiners faced tightened conditions in 2025. The average global margin declined, especially in diesel and fuel oil production. In Asia, due to gasoline oversupply, some refineries reduced output and switched to producing petrochemical products with higher added value. In Europe, requirements for biofuel content and environmental regulations are also increasing refinery costs, pushing the sector towards consolidation and modernization. It is expected that in 2026, global refining capacities will continue to grow – with new projects underway in East Africa and the expansion of refining in the U.S. This means competition in the refined products market will remain high, and prices for gasoline and diesel are likely to stay relatively low unless there is a sharp spike in oil prices.
Outlook and Expected Events
At the beginning of 2026, investors and participants in the energy sector are closely evaluating how key factors influencing prices and the supply-demand balance will unfold. In the coming months, the dynamics of global fuel and energy markets will be shaped by the following issues:
- Decisions on Sanctions and Progress of the Conflict: Whether the new U.S. sanctions bill against buyers of Russian oil will be approved and implemented. Its consequences for the global market (potential supply reductions, redistribution of flows, and political reactions from China/India) will be one of the main uncertainty factors. Concurrently, markets are watching for any signals of progress or failure in peace negotiations regarding Ukraine – this directly affects sanctions policy and investor sentiment.
- OPEC+ Strategy: Attention will be focused on the oil alliance's policy. If oil prices continue to decline, an extraordinary meeting or a reconsideration of quotas may occur. The regular OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for spring, and markets are anticipating whether measures to cut production to support prices will be taken or whether the cartel will allow prices to remain relatively low in order to retain market share.
- Economic Dynamics and Demand: The state of the global economy, especially in China, the U.S., and the EU, will be decisive for energy demand. If GDP growth accelerates in the second half of 2026 or, for example, industrial production in China increases following stimulus measures, this may elevate oil and LNG consumption and slightly reduce oversupply. Conversely, risks of recession or financial shocks may decrease fuel demand. Additionally, seasonal recovery in air travel (aviation fuel) and automotive traffic in spring-summer will also influence the refined products market.
- Completion of Winter and Preparation for Next Season: The outcomes of the current winter for the gas market will determine the strategy for 2026. If Europe avoids energy shortages and maintains substantial gas reserves in storage, this will facilitate the task of filling storage facilities for the next winter and may keep prices low. A significant event will be the 2026 summer filling season: under expected increases in global LNG supply (new projects in the U.S. and Qatar), Europe aims to achieve 90% storage capacity by autumn again. The market will be assessing whether this can be accomplished without price surges and without tough competition from Asian importers.
- Energy Transition and Corporate Investments: Continued observation of how energy corporations redistribute capital between fossil and renewable sectors will take place. In 2026, reduced investments in oil production are forecasted against the backdrop of low prices – especially among independent companies in North America and international majors focusing on financial discipline. Simultaneously, increases in investments in LNG projects (increasing exports from North America and Africa) and in renewable energy are likely. Any new government initiatives for decarbonization (for example, tightening climate goals at upcoming climate summits) or, conversely, moves to support fossil fuel production will directly affect long-term demand and pricing expectations.
Overall, industry experts provide a cautiously optimistic outlook for consumers in 2026: a high supply of oil and gas in the market should prevent sharp price hikes. However, for producers, it means the necessity to adapt to a new reality – a period of lower margins and increased attention to efficiency. Geopolitical factors remain a "wild card": unexpected events – whether breakthroughs in peace negotiations, major disruptions at producing facilities, or new trade wars – can instantaneously shift the balance. Participants in the energy sector approach the start of the year with caution, devising strategies capable of weathering various scenarios.
