Current News in Oil, Gas, and Energy as of December 12, 2025: Geopolitical Initiatives, Oil and Gas Price Balance, LNG Growth, Russia's Pivot to the East, Energy Transition, and Industry Forecasts – An Analytical Review for Investors and Participants in the Fuel and Energy Sector.
The focus is on the first signals of a possible easing of sanctions tensions surrounding Russian energy, the stabilization of oil and gas prices against the backdrop of cautious OPEC+ policy and comfortable fuel stocks, as well as the latest developments in global energy. This overview is aimed at investors and participants in the fuel and energy complex, including oil and gas, fuel, and energy companies, and all those monitoring the dynamics of oil, gas, electricity, and commodity markets.
Global Oil Market: Oversupply Suppresses Prices
Global oil prices have remained relatively stable at the end of the year: Brent is around $60 per barrel, and WTI is around $58. Recent expectations for a more accommodative U.S. Federal Reserve policy have provided some momentum for prices, but overall, oil has declined by approximately 15% since the beginning of 2025 due to the threat of oversupply amid moderate demand growth.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) are adhering to a cautious approach to managing production. At their December meeting, the alliance extended existing quotas at least until the end of the first quarter of 2026. OPEC+ continues to hold a significant portion of its capacity in reserve – around 3 million barrels per day – to prevent a price collapse. With Brent at around $60, cartel representatives emphasize the priority of stabilizing the market over the immediate intent to increase exports, given the anticipated drop in demand in the future.
Several key factors influence price dynamics:
- Demand. Global oil consumption is growing much more slowly than in previous years. The increase in 2025 is projected at less than 1 million barrels per day (compared to ~2.5 million in 2023). Economic downturns and energy conservation following a period of high prices, as well as a slowdown in industrial activity in China, are limiting demand growth.
- Supply. OPEC+ countries increased production in the first half of the year as restrictions were eased; however, the threat of market oversaturation is now restraining plans for further increases. The decision to maintain production cuts at the start of 2026 signals the coalition's readiness to prevent oversupply: if necessary, members will swiftly adjust exports if prices decline.
- Geopolitics. The war in Ukraine and sanctions against several oil-producing countries (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) are constraining supply and supporting prices. However, no new serious disruptions have been observed; on the contrary, early diplomatic initiatives for conflict resolution are emerging, reducing the risk premium. As a result, the oil market remains in a relatively narrow price corridor without sharp fluctuations.
Global Gas and LNG Market: Stability in Europe, Growing Supply
The gas market situation at the end of 2025 is relatively calm compared to the hype of two years ago. The European Union is entering winter with no signs of gas shortages: EU underground storage is over 70% full, significantly above the December average. Gas prices in Europe (TTF hub) are holding around €30 per MWh, which is significantly lower than the peaks of 2022. The volumes of Russian gas that are no longer being supplied are nearly fully compensated for by record LNG imports from alternative sources – terminals are actively accepting fuel from the U.S., Qatar, Norway, and other countries.
Global LNG supply continues to grow thanks to the commissioning of new facilities. Large export terminals are coming online in the U.S. (e.g., Golden Pass in the Gulf of Mexico), strengthening America's position as a leading supplier. Qatar, as part of the North Field expansion, plans to increase LNG production to 126 million tons per year by 2027, securing significant volumes with buyers in Europe and Asia. New projects are also commencing in other regions (Australia, Africa), increasing competition in the liquefied gas market.
At the same time, demand for gas is growing at moderate rates. In Asia, some importers are even redirecting excess purchased volumes to the spot market due to temporarily weak consumption. Overall, the expansion of supply and restrained demand keep global gas prices at relatively low levels. However, weather remains a critical factor: in cases of abnormal cold or supply interruptions during winter, short-term price spikes are possible, although the baseline scenario suggests price stability will be maintained.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: The West's Hard Line and Compromise Search
The standoff between Russia and the West over energy resources continues, although by the end of the year, attempts at dialogue have emerged. G7 and EU countries maintain a tough sanctions line: an embargo on Russian oil is in effect, and exports of petroleum products are restricted, while a price cap and financial sanctions complicate energy trade from Russia. Moreover, new restrictions are being discussed for early 2026 – allies intend to close remaining loopholes and are prepared to tighten pressure if the military conflict continues.
Simultaneously, the European Union is taking steps toward full energy independence from Russia. On December 10, EU ambassadors approved a legislative plan to abandon Russian energy carriers by the end of 2027 – ceasing purchases of natural gas (including LNG) and oil with petroleum products. This move is referred to by the EU as the "beginning of a new era," which will forever free European energy from dependence on Russian fuel, solidifying the break with Russia at the legislative level and stimulating the development of alternative sources – from increased LNG imports to accelerated deployment of renewable energy sources. Moscow has critically responded to the EU's strategy, warning that replacing cheap Russian gas with more expensive imports will increase costs for Europe. Nonetheless, Brussels shows determination to pay this price for the sake of geopolitical goals.
According to media reports, the U.S. has offered allies a plan for the gradual reintegration of Russia into the world economy after a peaceful settlement – including lifting sanctions and resuming the export of Russian energy carriers to Europe. However, the EU is approaching such initiatives with caution and rules out easing its position without concrete progress in resolving the Ukrainian crisis.
Russia Reorienting Toward Asian Markets
Facing the loss of western markets, Russia is increasing its energy resource exports to Asia. China has become a key buyer: in late August, the first batch of liquefied gas was dispatched from the new Arctic LNG-2 plant to China. In the fall, Russian LNG supplies to China grew at double-digit rates – Beijing is actively ramping up its purchases of fuel at discounts of 30-40%, ignoring Western sanctions pressures. The energy partnership between Moscow and Beijing is strengthening, providing Russia with an alternative market and China with inexpensive raw materials for its economy.
India also remains among the largest buyers of Russian hydrocarbons. Following the introduction of the European oil embargo, Indian refineries have significantly increased imports of Russian Urals and other grades at reduced prices. Russian leadership has assured partners of the willingness to ensure stable volumes of oil and petroleum products for India. Cheap resources from Russia help meet India's rapidly growing demand and keep domestic fuel prices in check, although New Delhi is striving to avoid critical dependence on a single supplier.
To solidify its eastern pivot, Russia is developing export infrastructure. The project for the new "Power of Siberia 2" gas pipeline through Mongolia to China is being discussed, which could significantly increase gas supplies to Asia in the future. Simultaneously, Russia is creating its own tanker fleet for delivering oil to markets in India, China, and Southeast Asia, reducing dependence on Western carriers and insurance services. These steps aim to make the long-term shift of energy flows to the East irreversible and decrease Russia's dependence on the European market.
Kazakhstan: Transit Risks and New Routes
The military conflict in Ukraine is also affecting energy resource export routes. In early December, a drone attack damaged the marine terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) near Novorossiysk. Although shipments of Kazakh oil have not been completely halted, Astana has decided to accelerate diversification. The Kazakh government has announced a redirection of some oil from the Kashagan field to China and is considering increasing supplies via the Caspian ports to reduce dependence on the route through Russia.
To enhance energy security, Kazakhstan is also planning to build a new oil refinery with foreign capital participation. Expanding domestic capacity for petroleum product production will allow the country to reduce fuel imports and increase the resilience of the oil and gas sector against external shocks.
Renewable Energy and Climate: Progress and Temporary Setbacks
The global energy transition continues to accelerate, although international climate agreements are stalled. At the UN COP30 conference (November 2025, Belém, Brazil), a rigid plan to phase out fossil fuels could not be adopted – several major oil and gas exporters blocked EU initiatives to specify deadlines for a gradual cessation of production. The final agreement turned out to be a compromise, shifting the focus to financing adaptation to climate change and general emissions reduction goals without clear deadlines for abandoning oil, gas, and coal.
Despite the lack of clear commitments, leading economies are practically increasing investments in green energy. The year 2025 has set a record for the commissioning of new solar and wind power plants in many countries. China, India, the U.S., the European Union, and others are actively investing in renewable energy sources (RES), storage systems, and hydrogen technologies, aiming to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons.
In the short term, however, there have been setbacks in the decarbonization path. High natural gas prices in 2025 have forced several countries to increase coal burning for electricity generation to get through the heating season – global demand for coal remains high. Experts believe this step is a temporary measure. As the share of RES grows and energy storage technologies improve, the consumption of coal and other fossil resources will resume its decline. Thus, the long-term trend toward a transition to clean energy remains, albeit with some delays along the way.
Forecast: Beginning of 2026
Analysts expect that oil prices will be under moderate downward pressure in the first quarter of 2026 due to high stocks and supply outpacing demand growth. In the absence of new shocks, the average price of Brent may drop to the range of $55-60 per barrel. At the same time, geopolitical factors could sharply change the price situation: escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, introduction of new sanctions, as well as crises in key oil-producing regions (Middle East, Latin America) could lead to significant price fluctuations.
For the gas market, the decisive factor remains the weather. If winter in the Northern Hemisphere is mild and fuel stocks are sufficient, European gas prices will remain at low levels. However, a few weeks of anomalous cold could quickly deplete storage facilities and trigger a price surge. Additionally, competition between Europe and Asia for LNG may intensify if economic growth in Asian countries exceeds expectations.
Participants in the fuel and energy sector will have to adapt to new conditions in 2026. Diversification of supplies, enhancing energy efficiency, and implementing innovations (including the development of RES and carbon capture technologies) will be the keys to business resilience. The outgoing year 2025 has vividly demonstrated the close interconnection of economics, politics, and ecology in shaping the prices of oil, gas, and electricity. In 2026, this interconnection is likely to strengthen: the global market will balance between oversupply and risk of shortages, and the global community and authorities will need to reconcile energy security tasks with climate objectives.
