Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Friday, January 30, 2026: Oil, Gas, LNG, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, and Key Global Energy Market Events for Investors and Industry Participants.
At the end of January 2026, the global fuel and energy complex is facing a series of new challenges. Extreme winter cold and geopolitical tensions are impacting the oil, gas, and electricity markets, even as the transition to clean energy continues. Investors and industry participants are analyzing how weather anomalies, sanctions policies, and new agreements are shifting the balance of supply and demand in the oil, gas, and energy sectors.
- Frosts and Production: An Arctic storm in North America temporarily reduced oil production by ~2 million barrels per day (up to 15% of the US level) and gas production by ~16%, causing a short-term price spike.
- Oil Prices: Brent remains around $65 per barrel under cautious OPEC+ policy, as the alliance signals its intention to maintain current production limits.
- Geopolitics: The escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran raises supply disruption risks, even as peace talks on Ukraine proceed, instilling hope for an easing of sanctions.
- Gas Market: Harsh winter conditions deplete European gas storages to minimal levels in recent years (<50%), provoking prices to rise to ~$500 per 1,000 cubic meters.
- Energy System: Record shares of renewable energy in Europe come with peak load stresses on networks; several countries are forced to reactivate coal and oil-fired power plants to prevent blackouts.
- Venezuela: Following a change in government, the US is easing oil sanctions, paving the way for increased exports of heavy Venezuelan oil and the country's reintegration into the global market.
Oil: Storm Consequences and Price Stability
Extreme Cold in the US. The powerful winter storm that impacted oil-producing regions in the US caused wells to freeze and temporarily reduced oil production by about 2 million barrels per day. The Permian Basin was particularly affected. However, production began to recover as temperatures warmed after a few days. Despite a short-term price spike during the height of the storm, the situation has stabilized: the benchmark Brent is trading around $65 per barrel, while US WTI hovers around $60.
The Role of OPEC+ and Market Balance. A key factor in price stability remains OPEC+ policy. The oil-exporting alliance maintained its current production quotas at its January meeting, signaling its intentions to prevent an oversupply. In 2025, OPEC+ countries had increased production, regaining lost market shares, which led to a supply surplus of around 2-2.5 million barrels per day. Now, the cartel is more cautious: against the backdrop of slowing demand (especially in China) and the threat of overproduction, leading exporters are prepared to cut production again if necessary to keep prices from falling. Analysts predict that in the absence of new shocks, oil prices will trade in the $60–65 range in the first half of 2026, with the average annual price for Brent expected to be around $55–60 per barrel.
Recovery and New Players. Overall, the oil market is displaying resilience against short-term disruptions. The swift recovery of American production and stable operations from other major producers (the Middle East and Latin America) are smoothing over local disturbances. Additional supply is also beginning to flow from Venezuela following the easing of sanctions (more details below), which could adjust market balance in the long term. For now, geopolitical risks remain the main factor of uncertainty for prices.
Geopolitical Risks: Iran, Sanctions, and Negotiations
Escalation in the Middle East. The international situation continues to impact energy markets. The conflict between the US and Iran has intensified: Washington has responded firmly to Tehran's nuclear ambitions and the suppression of internal protests, sending a carrier strike group to Iranian shores. President Donald Trump threatened Tehran with "severe measures," demanding a reassessment of its policies. In response, Iran stated it would consider any attacks as a declaration of total war. This rhetoric heightens trader nervousness and adds a geopolitical premium to oil prices due to concerns over supply disruptions from the Middle East.
Western Sanctions Policy. Simultaneously, western sanctions against Russia remain in place, although there is cautious optimism in diplomatic circles. The European Union plans to lower the price cap on Russian oil to $45 per barrel from February 1, 2026 (down from $60 currently), increasing pressure on exports from Russia. In response, Moscow has already extended its embargo on oil supplies to countries supporting the price cap until June 30, 2026. Nevertheless, Russian oil and petroleum product exports remain at relatively high levels due to redirecting flows to Asia, where China, India, and other countries are purchasing raw materials at a discount. Moreover, the US Treasury has extended the license allowing operations with specific foreign assets of one of the major Russian oil companies, effectively easing certain sanctions restrictions.
Negotiations and Hopes for Détente. Against the backdrop of confrontation, glimmers of hope are emerging from negotiations between Russia, the US, and Ukraine. Dialogue continued in January, and experts do not rule out a gradual easing of sanctions pressure if progress is made in resolving the conflict in Ukraine. Any thaw in relations could significantly alter the configuration of global energy flows. Investors are closely monitoring political signals: developments concerning Iran, Venezuela (sanction easing), or the success of peace initiatives could notably affect sentiment and redistribute risks in the commodity market.
Natural Gas: Frosts and Price Surge
Cold Winter and Production Decline. The natural gas market is undergoing a true stress test due to anomalous cold weather. In the US, the winter storm caused mass freezing of gas wells, resulting in a temporary cessation of up to 16% of gas production. Daily production during the storm dropped from 110 to approximately 97 billion cubic feet (from 3.1 to 2.7 billion cubic meters). This instantaneously impacted prices: Henry Hub gas futures more than doubled, exceeding $6 per million British thermal units (approximately $210 per 1,000 cubic meters). As the cold subsides, supply is gradually recovering, and prices have retreated below their peaks; however, volatility remains high.
Europe on the Brink of Shortage. In Europe, prolonged cold conditions have led to a sharp increase in demand for gas for heating and power generation. By the end of January, storage levels in European Union underground facilities had dropped to less than 50% of total capacity – the lowest level for this time of year in recent years. Spot prices at the TTF hub surged above $14 per MMBtu (around $500 per 1,000 cubic meters), although still significantly lower than the record highs of 2022. The situation was exacerbated by supply issues: LNG exports from the US dropped by nearly 50% due to operational disruptions at several terminals during the storm, temporarily reducing tanker deliveries to Europe. Some LNG shipments were quickly redirected from the EU to the US domestic market, where prices were even higher — this market redirection intensified tension in the global gas market.
Diversification and Prospects. To navigate the heating season, European countries are compelled to utilize all alternative gas sources. LNG imports remain at record levels: for the entirety of 2025, the EU imported about 109 million tons of liquefied gas (+28% compared to 2024), and in January 2026, around 9.5 million tons (+18% year-on-year) are expected to meet winter demand. Norway, Algeria, and other traditional suppliers are increasing pipeline exports, although fully compensating for the vanished Russian volumes (which have effectively ceased from January) is challenging. In Eastern Europe, logistics are being restructured: Ukraine, having lost transit and facing a decline in its own production, has increased imports from the EU by about 20% (to ~30 million cubic meters per day) via Slovakia and Poland. Turkey and Balkan countries are negotiating to purchase additional volumes of Azerbaijani gas and increase LNG supplies from the US. Simultaneously, Russia is accelerating the reorientation of exports to the East: in 2025, 38.8 billion cubic meters of gas were supplied to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline, for the first time surpassing total exports from Gazprom to Europe and Turkey. In the coming weeks, the situation in the EU gas market will depend on the weather: if February proves milder, prices will gradually decrease; however, in the event of a new cold front, the region will again face shortages. By spring, European countries will need to actively replenish depleted reserves, competing with Asian importers for LNG.
Electric Power and Coal: Strain on Networks
Peak Loads in Winter. Winter cold is putting energy systems in northern latitudes to the test. In the US, record electricity demand was logged in January: the operator of the largest eastern grid (PJM) declared a state of emergency when daily peak consumption exceeded 140 GW, threatening to overload infrastructure. To prevent blackouts, authorities had to take emergency measures — activating backup diesel generators and oil-fired power plants. These steps prevented a blackout but resulted in increased burning of oil and coal due to gas shortages and reduced renewable energy generation during the cold snap.
The Return of Coal and Network Limitations. Europe is experiencing a similar scenario: high demand has forced some countries to temporarily reactivate mothballed coal-fired power plants to cover peak loads. Although the share of coal in the EU power sector fell to a record low of 9% by the end of 2025, coal utilization has locally increased this winter. Simultaneously, infrastructure bottlenecks became evident: insufficient transmission capacity in power grids led to operational issues during peak production from wind farms, forcing operators to restrict the output of "green" energy to avoid accidents. This resulted in lost cheap electricity during windy days and higher prices during calm weather. Experts note that to enhance the resilience of the energy system, accelerated modernization of grids and the development of energy storage systems is needed; otherwise, even with an increase in renewable energy shares, dependence on hydrocarbon sources will remain high in extreme situations.
Global Coal Generation Trends. Despite the climate agenda, coal continues to maintain its role globally. In Asia, especially in China and India, coal consumption remains high to support industry and electricity needs. However, a symbolic result of 2025 was the simultaneous reduction in generation from coal-fired plants in these two major countries — the first time since the 1970s. In China, coal-based electricity generation decreased by approximately 1.6% over the year; in India, it fell by 3%, mainly due to record additions of solar and wind capacities that covered demand growth. This slight reduction signals the beginning of structural changes: the share of coal-generated electricity is gradually declining, which is essential for curbing greenhouse gas emissions. Nevertheless, in the short term, coal will continue to support energy systems during peaks and crises, until renewable sources and storage can fully take on this role.
Renewable Energy Growth and Energy Transition
Record Performance of Renewable Energy. The transition to clean energy is gaining momentum worldwide. In 2025, many countries achieved historical highs in renewable generation capacity. In the European Union, around 85-90 GW of new solar and wind power plants were introduced, allowing for the generation of more electricity from solar and wind (approximately 30% of total EU generation) than from all fossil fuels combined (around 29%). Overall, the share of low-carbon sources (renewables plus nuclear) exceeded 70% in the EU electricity generation structure. China is also demonstrating impressive growth rates: over the year, more than 300 GW of solar panels and around 100 GW of wind farms were added, enabling the country to slightly reduce coal generation and slow the growth of emissions, even as electricity consumption increased. The renewable energy market is also rapidly expanding in India, the US, and the Middle East.
Growth Issues and Compromises. The rapid expansion of renewable energy presents new challenges. The main one is ensuring reliable power supply with a high share of intermittent sources. The experience of the current winter has shown that without sufficient backup capacities and energy storage, even advanced "green" energy systems are vulnerable to weather anomalies. Governments in several countries are already taking steps: massive projects for constructing battery farms and implementing energy storage technologies (including hydrogen) are underway to smooth peak loads. Simultaneously, some states are reassessing their approaches: for example, in Germany, the new coalition has announced the potential resumption of nuclear reactor operations, acknowledging that the previous abandonment of nuclear generation was a mistake. Faced with rising electricity prices in 2025, Berlin and Prague achieved temporary easing of certain EU climate norms to prevent an energy crisis.
Investments and International Cooperation. Despite the challenges, the global energy transition will continue. In 2026, further growth in investments in solar and wind projects, as well as in grid modernization, is expected. Many countries are entering into new cooperation agreements in clean energy and energy resource trade. At the end of 2025, the EU and the US signed an agreement to increase supplies of American energy resources to Europe, which should help the EU meet its needs amidst declining imports from Russia. Such arrangements spark discussions about the balance between climate goals and energy security, but in the long term, the path toward decarbonization remains unchanged — the realization of which simply requires a more flexible and balanced approach.
Refined Products and Refineries: Fuel Market Under Pressure
High Prices Amidst Abundance of Raw Materials. The global refined products market entered 2026 against a backdrop of conflicting trends. On one hand, there is a general abundance of crude oil, which should facilitate a decline in prices for gasoline, diesel, and other fuels. On the other hand, several countries are facing local fuel shortages and rising prices due to logistical disruptions and low inventories. In the US, wholesale gasoline prices dropped from last autumn's peaks during winter but remain above average levels, as refiners initially reduced output due to oversaturation with oil and then were forced to sharply increase fuel production amid surging demand during cold weather. In Europe, gasoline and diesel stocks are also insufficient – a harsh winter has depleted petroleum product storages, supporting high fuel prices in several EU countries.
Government Measures and Redistribution of Flows. To stabilize the fuel market, authorities resort to manual management and encourage the redistribution of supplies. In Russia, after a record increase in gasoline prices in 2025, a temporary ban on the export of key petroleum products was introduced; this restriction has now been extended until the end of February 2026, and discussions about introducing permanent export quotas are ongoing to prevent shortages in the domestic market. Concurrently, Russian refineries are gradually restructuring logistics — increasing fuel supplies to friendly countries in Asia and Africa to compensate for reduced exports to Europe. In contrast, some refining plants in the EU are redirecting towards producing and exporting additional fuel volumes to third countries to curb internal price growth and capitalize on high demand outside the EU. Strong demand for diesel and fuel oil in South Asia and Latin America supports refining margins, prompting global producers to ramp up output when possible. Infrastructure is also adapting: new storage capacities for fuel are being built in key ports, and traders are actively renting tankers for floating storage, awaiting favorable market conditions for sales.
Impact of the Energy Transition. In the long run, the development of electric vehicles and the tightening of environmental regulations will decrease the growth of gasoline and diesel consumption, but in the next year or two, demand for refined products will remain high, especially in developing economies. Energy companies are attempting to balance: investing in refinery modernization for more efficient processing (for example, by installing units for producing sustainable aviation fuel), while maintaining focus on core fuel grades that generate the bulk of the profit. Thus, the refined products market is under dual pressure — the necessity of ensuring stable supplies while also preparing for the structural reduction of fossil fuel roles in the transport sector.
Venezuela: Return to the Oil Market
Easing Sanctions and New Opportunities. One of the most significant events at the beginning of 2026 is Venezuela's partial restoration of its presence in the global oil market. Following political changes in Caracas, Washington announced its readiness to lift some sanctions that have been in place since 2019, aiming to increase global oil supply and reduce prices. A general license from the US is expected to be issued soon, allowing foreign companies to expand their operations in the Venezuelan oil and gas sector. Potential beneficiaries include partners of the state-owned PDVSA, such as Chevron, Repsol, Eni, and Indian Reliance, who have already expressed plans to increase production and export Venezuelan oil.
Growth in Production and Initial Deals. Experts forecast rapid growth in exports from Venezuela throughout the year. If, by the end of 2025, supplies were reduced to ~500,000 barrels per day due to sanctions (down from nearly 1 million barrels per day a year earlier), by the second half of 2026, the country may once again exceed the 1 million barrels per day mark. The US, seeking to replenish its strategic reserves with cheap heavy oil, was the first to sign a $2 billion deal with Caracas — these funds will go towards reviving Venezuela's oil sector. Already in January, several tankers of Venezuelan oil arrived at US ports under special permits, allowing for the unloading of PDVSA's storages. Refineries along the Gulf Coast, historically configured to process heavy Venezuelan oil, are preparing to increase their throughput, replacing it with costly blends from other sources.
Implications for OPEC+ Market. Venezuela's return alters the balance of power within OPEC+. While the country will need time and investment to significantly increase production (infrastructure has deteriorated after years of sanctions), any additional volume represents a downward pressure on prices. Saudi Arabia and its allies will closely monitor the situation: if Venezuelan oil begins to gain a substantial foothold in the market, OPEC+ may adjust its production policy to avert a new oversupply. Nevertheless, at the current stage, allies welcome Caracas's return as a means to alleviate potential shortages in specific segments (e.g., heavy oil for refineries) and as part of a broader normalization of global energy cooperation.
Market Expectations and Conclusions
Despite a series of shocks this winter, the global energy market enters February 2026 without panic. Short-term factors — extreme weather and geopolitics — support price volatility for oil and gas; however, the systemic balance of supply and demand remains generally stable. OPEC+ continues to play a stabilizing role, preventing a shortage in the oil market, while operational redirection of supplies and production increases (as seen in the US and other countries) compensate for local disruptions. If no new emergencies occur, oil prices are likely to remain near current levels until the next OPEC+ meeting, where the alliance may reassess quotas depending on the situation.
For the gas market, the coming weeks will be decisive: mild weather in the latter half of winter will allow prices to fall and initiate stock replenishment, whereas a new cold front threatens another price surge and difficulties for Europe. In spring, EU countries will face a massive campaign to inject gas into underground storage for the next heating season — and competition with Asia for LNG promises to be fierce, maintaining a high pricing environment.
From a strategic perspective, the events of this winter have underscored the critical importance of reliable traditional capacities even amid accelerated energy transitions. Governments and companies worldwide will be seeking to balance investments in renewable energy while ensuring energy security throughout 2026. New conditions require flexibility: to simultaneously increase "green" generation and modernize grids, while also maintaining sufficient backup capacities based on fossil fuels. Investment decisions will be made with consideration for the lessons from recent crises: the priority is the resilience of energy systems. Thus, the coming year promises to be a time of careful balancing of interests — between growth, ecology, and security — that will determine the trajectory of the global fuel and energy complex.
