Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports on Wednesday, December 31, 2025: China's PMI, US Data, Trading Regimes on Global Markets, and Guidelines for Investors Amid Year-End Lull.
Wednesday, December 31, is marked by reduced liquidity in global markets: some exchanges are closed due to the holidays, while others operate on a shortened schedule. For investors from the CIS, this means a shift in focus from intraday trading to risk management and evaluating macroeconomic signals as the new year approaches. On a day like this, even standard economic events can lead to disproportionate movements in individual instruments due to the thin market and wider spreads. The focal points are China's PMI and US data, as well as the trading regime on Russian platforms where the Moscow Exchange is closed, while trading at the SPB Exchange continues.
Trading Regime: Global Markets and CIS Platforms
- Europe: Some continental exchanges are closed; several markets may have a shortened trading day. For Euronext platforms, December 31 is designated as a half trading day for a number of markets in the group.
- Asia: A significant portion of regional markets is transitioning to holiday mode; liquidity is typically below average for month-end.
- Russia: The Moscow Exchange will not conduct trading on December 31. For CIS investors, who value access to operations, the SPB Exchange remains a key platform where trading continues.
- USA: The stock market operates as usual, while the bond market closes earlier than standard time.
Practical takeaway for investors: As the European and American sessions approach closure, volatility may "spike" on certain news items, but confirming sustained movement will be difficult due to low volumes. Priority should be given to maintaining discipline around limits, selecting instruments with high liquidity, and verifying the settlement and clearing schedule with brokers.
China: Services PMI and Composite PMI (04:30 MSK)
Early in the morning, indicators of business activity in China’s services sector and the composite PMI for December will be released. For global markets, these provide a quick gauge of whether internal demand momentum is being maintained and how sustainably the services sector is recovering. For commodity assets and currencies of developing countries, the importance of China’s PMI is traditionally significant: strong figures bolster demand expectations for industrial metals and energy resources, while weak figures intensify caution and raise risk premiums.
- How to Read the Release: A level above 50 typically indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction in activity.
- What’s Important Inside: Components such as new orders, employment, and prices (inflationary signals in supply chains).
- Market Reaction: In thin liquidity, sharp moves in commodity futures and currency pairs are likely, but trend confirmation may only come after the US market opens.
USA: Jobless Claims (16:30 MSK)
During the day, focus will shift to US data — initial jobless claims. This metric is significant as a timely indicator of labor market conditions and the economy's "temperature." For investors, it represents a piece of the puzzle: the labor market influences consumption trajectories, corporate profitability, and rate expectations.
- Positive Scenario: A moderate level of claims without sharp spikes indicates employment stability.
- Negative Scenario: A notable increase in claims could heighten defensive sentiment and demand for quality (short-term bonds, dollar assets, low-volatility sectors).
- Tactics: Reactions in the pre-New Year session may be disproportionate; when operating through the SPB Exchange, it makes sense to set entry/exit levels in advance and use limit orders.
USA: Chicago PMI (Guidance 17:45 MSK)
Another US indicator is the Chicago PMI for December. It helps assess the state of manufacturing activity and business expectations in the industrial region. Combined with jobless claims, this indicator forms a "quick" macro collection that market participants use to fine-tune expectations for January.
- Volatility Factor: If the release comes on a thin market, movements in index futures and the dollar can be sharp but short-lived.
- Interpretation: A rising index strengthens the argument for stable business activity; a weak figure raises the risk of a "soft landing."
Corporate Reports: Global Agenda for December 31
From a corporate reporting perspective, the day is generally "empty" for major issuers: S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225 companies, and major Russian public firms do not concentrate releases on December 31. Major financial result announcements are typically scheduled for the working weeks of January and February when the market returns to normal liquidity.
However, in the US, reports from certain small-cap issuers are planned. While not systemic for the broader market, these can represent point interests for risk-oriented strategies:
- Coffee Holding (JVA): Focus on margin dynamics amid commodity prices, working capital, and inventory.
- Maison Solutions (MSS): Comparable sales, cost inflation, and network efficiency (operating margin) are of interest.
- 1933 Industries (TGIFF/TGIF): Key factors include cash flow, debt burden, and revenue stability in the regulated sector.
- Formation Minerals (FOMI): For investors, important aspects include asset structure, funding sources, and any signs of achieving stable revenues.
- 4Less Group (FLES): High-risk microcap; priority should be given to assessing corporate events and reporting transparency.
For CIS investors, the practical recommendation is straightforward: consider such reports only with an understanding of the nuances of low-liquidity stocks and a predetermined risk limit. In pre-New Year trading, the risk of "slippage" and quote gaps is significantly higher.
Assets and Themes of the Day: Currencies, Rates, Commodities
In the context of reduced trading on some platforms, the market often shifts focus to "big" macro themes. Therefore, China's PMI and US data will set the tone for the dollar, yields, and commodity assets. For investors' portfolios, three practical observations are important:
- Currencies: Unexpected US data may lead to a rapid dollar response, especially against low-liquidity currencies during the holidays.
- Rates: The early closure of the bond market in the US enhances the effect of thin liquidity — movements may be "jumpy."
- Commodities: Weaker-than-expected China's PMI often puts pressure on cyclical assets, while stronger-than-expected supports risk appetite and demand for commodity stories.
Risk Management in Pre-New Year Trading
For both retail and professional investors, the key task of the day becomes protecting against inefficient execution and "random" volatility. In pre-New Year trading, it makes sense to:
- use limit orders instead of market orders;
- reduce position size in instruments with weak order depth;
- avoid "impulse" trades immediately after data releases — wait for stabilizing quotes;
- account for settlement and clearing specifics, especially for operations through the SPB Exchange and foreign instruments;
- maintain focus on portfolio goals: the year's end is not the best time for aggressive risk accumulation without a clear strategy.
What Investors Should Pay Attention To
December 31 is a day when global markets significantly operate on a holiday schedule, which increases the cost of errors. The focus remains on economic events — China's PMI in the morning and the block of US data in the afternoon. From the corporate report side, no substantial releases are expected from major firms; activity is concentrated among certain small issuers in the US, where liquidity risk and volatility are above average.
Practical focus for CIS investors: (1) predefine reaction scenarios to macro data, (2) use conservative execution and limit orders, (3) avoid overloading the portfolio with risk in a thin market, (4) prepare a watchlist for January when liquidity returns and a full agenda for the new year begins.
