Oil and Gas and Energy News — Wednesday, February 11, 2026: Sanction Pressure, Redirection of Oil Supplies, and Record LNG Imports
As of early February 2026, the global energy market is experiencing contradictory factors. On one hand, oil and gas supply is beginning to exceed demand, creating conditions for surplus and keeping prices at moderate levels. On the other hand, ongoing geopolitical tensions and sanction pressures prevent oil prices from dropping sharply. Western countries continue to tighten restrictions on the export of Russian hydrocarbons: new measures have been introduced in early February, including a reduction in the price cap on Russian oil and additional bans on maritime transportation.
Under external pressure, key importers like India are reducing purchases of Russian energy, redirecting demand to alternative suppliers. Oil prices remain relatively stable (Brent around $68–69 per barrel) thanks to expectations of an oversupply. The European gas market is passing through winter without panic: despite a rapid depletion of reserves, mild weather and record volumes of LNG imports are saving the situation. Simultaneously, the global energy transition is gaining momentum — record renewable energy capacities are being introduced, although oil, gas, and coal still constitute the backbone of the global energy balance. Below is an overview of key events and trends in the energy sector as of mid-February 2026.
Oil Market: Surplus Supply Amid Sanctions
In early February, global oil prices stabilized after a slight increase. The North Sea Brent is trading around $68–69 per barrel, while US WTI is approximately $64–65. The oil market is balancing between oversupply and geopolitical risks. Analysts forecast a significant oil surplus in the first quarter of 2026 — according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global supply could exceed demand by around 4 million barrels per day. However, various supply disruption threats prevent prices from dropping much below current levels.
- Sanctions and Geopolitical Risks. In February, a new tightening of sanctions took effect: the EU and the UK lowered the price cap on Russian oil to $44 per barrel and expanded restrictions on tanker shipments of crude from Russia. The US has taken a tougher stance against Iran, not ruling out the use of force against its oil infrastructure. The political crisis in Venezuela has temporarily reduced exports from there. All these factors increase the risk premium in the oil market, partially offsetting the oversupply pressure.
- Restructuring Export Flows. Major Asian buyers are adjusting their oil imports under Western diplomatic pressure. India, which previously purchased over 2 million barrels per day of Russian crude, has sharply reduced these supplies. In January 2026, Russian oil imports to India fell to approximately 1.2 million barrels per day — the lowest level in almost a year. According to US President Donald Trump, the new trade agreement with India implies a de facto refusal of Indian refineries to purchase Russian oil. Although New Delhi has not officially announced an embargo, major Indian companies have already stopped placing orders for Russian crude. As a result, Moscow is redirecting exports to other markets, primarily to China, where refineries eagerly purchase Russian oil at a discount, strengthening the energy partnership between Beijing and Moscow.
Gas Market: Depleting Reserves in Europe and Record LNG Imports
By February, the European gas market remains relatively calm, although underground gas storage (UGS) facilities are rapidly depleting as winter progresses. Gas reserves in the EU dropped to around 44% of total capacity by the end of January — the lowest level for this time of year since 2022 and significantly below the ten-year average (~58%). However, mild winter weather and high LNG deliveries are preventing shortages and price shocks. Futures prices for gas (TTF index) remain stable, reflecting market confidence in resource availability.
- Depletion of Reserves and Need for Replenishment. The winter withdrawal is leading to a rapid decrease in fuel volumes in storage facilities. If current trends continue, by the end of March, European UGS could be filled to only around 30%. To raise reserves to 80–90% before the next winter, the EU will need to inject about 60 billion cubic meters of gas during the inter-season. Achieving this will require a substantial increase in purchases during the warmer months – a significant part of current imports is immediately consumed. Restoring underground reserves by autumn will be a serious challenge for traders and infrastructure.
- Record LNG Supplies. A decrease in pipeline supplies to Europe is being offset by unprecedented LNG imports. In 2025, EU countries purchased around 175 billion cubic meters of LNG (+30% year-on-year), and in 2026, imports are expected to reach 185 billion. The growth in supplies is supported by an expansion of global offerings: the introduction of new LNG plants in the US, Canada, Qatar, and other countries is increasing global production by approximately 7%. The European market is counting on getting through the 2026/27 heating season with high LNG procurement, especially as the EU aims to completely phase out Russian gas by 2027 (which requires replacing approximately 33 billion cubic meters per year with additional LNG volumes).
Product Market: Stabilization After Turbulence
- As of early 2026, the global petroleum product market (gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, etc.) is showing gradual normalization after a period of shortages. Fuel demand remains high due to the recovery of transportation and industry, but the introduction of new refining capacities in Asia and the Middle East has helped rectify the acute imbalance. Prices for gasoline and diesel have moved away from the peaks of 2022–2023, although local spikes are still possible (in the event of extreme cold or supply disruptions). Governments in many countries are employing measures to smooth out price fluctuations — reducing taxes, selling fuel from reserves, or temporarily restricting exports. In particular, in Russia, after the fuel crisis of 2025, restrictions on the export of gasoline and diesel remain in place, and the damping compensation mechanism for refineries keeps domestic prices stable.
Electricity: Rising Demand and Strengthening Infrastructure
- Global electricity consumption is confidently growing (over 3.5% annually, according to IEA forecasts) amidst accelerated electrification of transport, digitalization of the economy, and increased use of air conditioning. Even in developed countries, after years of stagnation, demand is again on the rise. These trends require large investments in energy grids and storage systems to maintain supply reliability. Many governments are launching programs for the modernization and expansion of electricity networks, accelerated construction of transmission lines. Simultaneously, large battery farms are being built in several regions to smooth peak loads and integrate variable renewable energy generation. Energy companies are also strengthening cybersecurity and network resilience against extreme weather, aiming to prevent outages as the economy becomes increasingly reliant on electricity.
Renewable Energy: Record Achievements and Growth Challenges
The transition to clean energy is continuing at an accelerated pace. The year 2025 marked a record for the introduction of new renewable energy capacities (primarily solar and wind). According to the IEA, in 2025, the share of renewable energy in global electricity generation equaled that of coal for the first time (~30%). In 2026, the "green" energy sector will continue its expansion. Global investments in the energy transition are reaching record highs: according to BloombergNEF, over $2.3 trillion was invested in clean energy and electric transport projects in 2025 (+8% year-on-year). Governments of major economies are increasing support for environmentally friendly technologies, viewing them as a driver of sustainable growth. In the European Union, climate goals have been tightened, necessitating the accelerated introduction of zero-carbon capacities and reforms of the emissions market. However, the rapid growth of the sector is accompanied by certain difficulties:
- Integration of Renewables into Energy Systems. The expanding share of solar and wind power plants imposes new requirements on energy grids. The variable nature of renewable generation necessitates the development of backup capacities and energy storage systems for balancing — from fast-reserve gas plants to large battery parks and pumped storage stations. Also, the electricity grid infrastructure is being modernized to transmit electricity from remote areas where renewables are located to consumers. The active development of these areas will help curb CO2 emissions even amidst rising electricity demand, provided that a sufficient volume of new low-carbon capacities is introduced timely.
Coal Sector: Demand in Asia Amid Western Exit
- Despite global decarbonization efforts, coal consumption remains at historically high levels. In 2025, global demand reached approximately 8.85 billion tonnes (+0.5% year-on-year), and in 2026, is expected to be about the same level. Growth is being driven by developing economies in Asia (China, India, etc.), where coal continues to serve as a key fuel for electricity generation and industry. Meanwhile, Western countries are rapidly shutting down coal power plants and banning new projects, aiming to completely phase out coal by the 2030s. This situation is providing coal mining companies with high earnings in the short term, but tightening climate policies and investor withdrawals are limiting the industry's long-term prospects.
Outlook and Forecast
Overall, the global energy sector is entering 2026 without severe disruptions, although uncertainty remains. The oil market is likely to stay relatively balanced: the expected oversupply will be offset by geopolitical risks, preventing prices from either falling significantly or soaring sharply. The main intrigue in the gas sector will be Europe's ability to replenish depleted gas reserves by next winter through increased LNG imports and alternative supplies. Energy companies and investors must navigate the balance between capitalizing on sustained demand for traditional energy sources and investing in new technologies — from renewable generation to energy storage systems — to align with long-term energy transition trends.
