Key Energy Sector News as of September 16, 2025: Sanction Pressure, global Oil Market Balance, Gas Sector Stability, Renewable Energy Records, Coal Demand in Asia, and Measures to Stabilize Fuel Prices in Russia.
Current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of September 16, 2025, attract the attention of investors and market participants due to a mix of contradictory factors. Following summer diplomatic contacts between Russia and the U.S., there have been no significant breakthroughs in relations; on the contrary, some recent actions by Washington and its allies signal an increase in sanction pressure, although certain channels of dialogue remain open. The global oil market continues to be influenced by fundamental factors: supply surplus and slowing demand keep Brent prices around mid-$60 per barrel, reflecting a fragile balance. The European gas market demonstrates stability: underground gas storage (UGS) facilities in the EU are filled to over 90%, providing a cushion ahead of winter and keeping prices at a moderate level. Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum – many countries are setting new records for generation from renewable sources, although traditional resources are still needed for the reliability of energy systems. In Russia, after a recent surge in fuel prices, authorities are implementing a set of emergency measures to stabilize the domestic petroleum market. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, energy, and raw materials sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Supply Surplus and Geopolitical Risks Keep Prices in Check
Global oil prices remain relatively stable as of mid-September, trading within a moderate range. The benchmark North Sea Brent is priced around $66–68 per barrel, while the American WTI holds within $62–64. Current quotes are approximately 10% lower than the levels a year ago, reflecting a gradual normalization of the market after the peaks of the energy crisis in 2022–2023. Several factors influence price dynamics:
- Gradual Increase in OPEC+ Production: The oil alliance continues to restore supply. At the meeting on September 7, participant countries agreed to raise the total production quota by approximately +137,000 barrels per day starting in October (following an increase of +548,000 b/d the previous month). Despite relatively low prices, OPEC+ aims to reclaim lost market shares, leading to an increase in global oil and petroleum product inventories.
- Weak Demand Growth: Global oil consumption is growing significantly slower than in previous years. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the demand increase in 2025 will be less than 1 million b/d (compared to over +2.5 million b/d in 2023). OPEC also anticipates modest growth (~+1.2–1.3 million b/d). The reasons include slowing global economic growth (including declining GDP growth rates in China) and the effect of high prices from the previous period, which have stimulated energy conservation.
- Rising Inventories and Non-OPEC Exports: Commercial oil inventories in the U.S. unexpectedly increased in September, signaling a forming surplus. At the same time, some producers are ramping up exports: for example, Saudi Arabia sharply increased its oil supplies to external markets following the high internal consumption period. Additionally, a reduction in petroleum product exports from Russia has freed up additional volumes of crude oil for the global market.
- Geopolitics and Finance: The ongoing sanction conflict creates nervousness in the market. The lack of progress in negotiations means that existing restrictions remain in place, along with the risk of new ones, as stated by Western leaders. Meanwhile, expectations for a softening of Federal Reserve policies amid weak macro data in the U.S. are slightly weakening the dollar, which temporarily supports commodity prices. There is also a persistent risk of escalating conflicts in the Middle East. Together, these factors keep oil prices within a narrow range – without prerequisites for either a rally or a crash.
Thus, the global oil market is currently close to a state of surplus. Excess supply is offset by the geopolitical risks present, which prevents prices from falling sharply but also does not provoke growth. Brent is trading confidently below last year's levels, and several analysts believe that without a shift in current trends, a further moderate price decline is possible by the end of the year.
Gas Market: Europe Fills Storage and Keeps Prices in Check
On the gas market, the focus is primarily on Europe. EU countries are rapidly injecting natural gas into UGS facilities, preparing for the autumn-winter period. By mid-September, the overall fill rate of European storage exceeded 90% of full capacity, significantly ahead of the European Commission's schedule and forming a solid reserve for winter. As a result, exchange prices for gas remain relatively low: futures quotes at the TTF hub are around €30/MWh (approximately $380 per thousand cubic meters), which is several times lower than the peaks of the 2022 crisis. The active influx of liquefied natural gas (LNG) during the summer months also contributed to rapid stock replenishment, compensating for a reduction in pipeline supplies from traditional sources.
However, uncertainty remains for the gas market – during the winter, there may be an increase in demand for LNG from Asia, which could divert some supplies and push prices upward. For now, the situation for Europe looks favorable: record reserves and stable supplies allow for relative confidence entering the heating season, and prices remain comfortable for European industry and energy.
In Eastern Europe, however, dependency on Russian gas resources persists. Ukraine's attempts to establish gas imports from alternative sources have faced difficulties: supplies of Azerbaijani gas via Romania, initiated in August, had ceased by September. As a result, Ukraine still covers its needs with Russian gas transiting through neighboring countries (Hungary, Slovakia, etc.). Experts cite limited infrastructure capacities as one reason for the failure of supplies:
“It is not excluded that the problem lies specifically in infrastructure: the project's implementation could have been affected by a shortage of pipeline capacities. TANAP (16 billion cubic meters per year) and TAP (11 billion cubic meters) are already loaded. To increase supplies to Europe and provide for new consumers, Azerbaijan will have to introduce additional gas transportation infrastructure,” states Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of Open Oil Market (Business Newspaper “Vzglyad”).
International Politics: Increased Sanctions and Risks for the Energy Sector
The geopolitical situation surrounding the FEC remains tense. On one side, Moscow and Washington announced their readiness to maintain contacts following the August meeting – working communication channels between the governments continue to operate, and new consultations are anticipated. However, there has been no real easing of the sanctions regime; moreover, some recent actions by Western countries indicate further tightening of restrictions:
- Japan Tightens Oil Sanctions: As of September 12, Tokyo has lowered the upper price limit for Russian oil from $60 to $47.6 per barrel, thereby intensifying sanction pressure on the export of Russian raw materials.
- The U.S. Calls on Allies to Increase Pressure: According to media reports, Washington is urging its G7 partners to impose additional tariffs or levies on the supplies of Russian oil to India and China, trying to reduce Moscow's benefits from redirecting exports to Asia.
- Discussion of New Sanctions: In the West, there are open discussions about the potential introduction of additional measures against the Russian energy sector if there is no progress in resolving the crisis. Specifically, there were previously voiced ideas about imposing 100% tariffs on all exports from China to the U.S. if Beijing does not restrict cooperation with Russia in the oil and gas sector. The European Union, for its part, is considering sanctions against third-country companies that assist in circumventing existing embargoes.
Additionally, there are direct risks to infrastructure: attacks by drones on Russian FEC facilities have increased. In recent weeks, several incidents (including drone strikes on oil refineries in Bashkiria and the Leningrad region) temporarily disabled production capacities, which has heightened market nervousness. Overall, geopolitics remains a key factor of uncertainty for the global energy market: sanction pressure and military risks restrain investor activity while simultaneously forcing a restructuring of global energy resource supply chains.
Asia: India and China Increase Purchases and Develop Production
Asian countries – primarily India and China – continue to play a crucial role in the global energy resources market, combining increased imports with the development of their own production. **India** makes it clear that it is not willing to sacrifice its energy security: despite Western pressure, New Delhi maintains a high level of purchases of Russian oil and petroleum products at attractive prices (the Urals brand is offered at a significant discount to Brent). At the same time, Indian leadership is striving to diversify supply sources and investing in increasing domestic oil and gas production, although in the short term growing demand dictates the need for substantial imports.
Under external sanction pressure, India also has to exercise greater caution. Major Indian companies are implementing compliance measures: thus, the Adani Group conglomerate has prohibited vessels subject to EU, UK, or U.S. sanctions from entering its ports starting in September. This move has necessitated redirecting supplies of Russian oil to other ports and demonstrates how Indian businesses balance between the advantages of cheap Russian raw materials and the risks of secondary sanctions.
**China**, in turn, is increasing its imports of traditional energy resources (oil, pipeline, and liquefied gas) while simultaneously boosting domestic production. Beijing has not joined Western sanctions, remaining the largest buyer of Russian oil and gas on favorable terms. According to customs statistics, in 2024, China imported over 212 million tons of oil and approximately 246 billion cubic meters of gas – these volumes increased by 1–6% compared to the previous year. In 2025, imports continue to grow, albeit at a more moderate pace due to high baselines. At the same time, national Chinese companies are ramping up hydrocarbon production (since the beginning of 2025, oil production has increased by approximately 1%, and gas by about 6% year-on-year), but this is still insufficient: the country remains dependent on imports to cover at least 70% of its oil needs and around 40% of its gas needs.
To strengthen long-term energy security, Beijing and Moscow are expanding cooperation. Recently, the parties agreed on key parameters for the future “Power of Siberia-2” gas pipeline to China, which is expected to significantly increase Russian gas exports to the Asian market. Thus, Asia remains the main outlet for Russian energy resources: India and China, based on their own interests, continue to purchase oil, gas, and coal from the RF, compensating for Moscow's limited access to European and North American markets.
Energy Transition: Records in “Green” Energy and Balance with Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy in 2025 is reaching new heights. Many countries are recording record figures in the commissioning of capacities and power generation from renewable sources (RES). For example, the **European Union** in 2024 generated more electricity from solar and wind power plants than from coal and gas for the first time – a trend that has continued into 2025, thanks to the active launch of new solar panels and wind farms. This year, a record amount of new RES capacity (estimated at around 85–90 GW) is expected to be installed in the EU. In the U.S., the share of renewable sources in power generation has exceeded 30%, while **China** continues to install tens of gigawatts of new solar and wind stations annually, constantly breaking its own records for “green” generation. According to the IEA, total investments in the global energy sector in 2025 will exceed $3 trillion, with more than half of that amount going to RES projects, electrical grid upgrades, and energy storage systems.
At the same time, the rapid growth of the share of variable renewable generation poses new challenges. During periods of low sunlight or wind, traditional power plants are still required as backup to meet peak demand and prevent interruptions. Countries continue to invest in large energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped-storage hydropower stations) and "smart" grids to enable flexible load management. Experts predict that by 2026–2027, renewable energy could surpass coal in global generation volume, conclusively overtaking it. However, in the coming years, traditional resources – gas, coal, and nuclear energy – will continue to play an essential role in ensuring the stability of energy systems. The current stage of the energy transition requires a fine balance: while “green” energy is breaking records and increasing its share, traditional sources remain necessary for ensuring stable power supply.
Coal: High Demand in Asia and Price Stability
Despite climate concerns, the global coal market in 2025 continues to function at historically high levels. Global coal consumption remains significant – primarily due to Asia. **China** remains the world's largest producer and consumer of coal, extracting over 4 billion tons per year and burning these volumes at its power plants. During peak periods (for example, during the summer heat when the load from air conditioning increases), even this volume can be insufficient, forcing the PRC to increase coal imports to support its energy system. **India** produces over 70% of its electricity from coal-fired power plants, and total coal consumption in the country is rising alongside its economy. Several other developing Asian countries (Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.) are also commissioning new coal generation capacities to meet the growing demand for electricity.
The largest coal exporters – Indonesia, Australia, Russia, South Africa, among others – have increased their production and shipments in recent years. This has allowed prices to return to relatively moderate levels after the spikes of 2021–2022. Currently, global prices for thermal coal remain stable, providing affordable fuel for power generation while also being profitable for mining companies. Although many countries have announced plans to gradually reduce coal usage to meet climate commitments, in the short term, this resource remains indispensable for the reliable power supply of hundreds of millions of people, especially in Asia. Thus, the coal sector currently maintains a state of relative equilibrium: demand for coal remains consistently high, while prices are moderate and predictable.
The Russian Oil Product Market: Emergency Measures and Initial Results
In Russia's internal fuel and energy sector, unprecedented measures have been implemented aimed at curbing the rise in petroleum product prices. In August, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel reached historic highs amid a surge in demand, disruptions at several refineries, and the attractiveness of exports. To saturate the domestic market, the government imposed a temporary **export ban on gasoline and diesel** – in effect until September 30 for oil companies, and extended until October 31, 2025, for traders and small fuel suppliers. Refineries are instructed to prioritize meeting the needs of domestic buyers by increasing shipments to problematic regions (additional fuel shipments are being directed, in particular, to Primorsky Krai and Crimea, where shortages were previously reported).
At the same time, authorities are discussing long-term stabilization mechanisms. Changes to the damping excise tax formula are being considered – increasing the allowable deviation of the exchange price of fuel from the baseline for determining compensation. This would allow refiners to receive payments even when prices are higher on the exchange and reduce incentives for exporting fuels abroad. Additionally, state price control will continue: the export ban on certain petroleum products may be extended until the situation is fully resolved, and the FAS and the Ministry of Energy are monitoring the market to prevent instances of speculative markup.
By the beginning of September, the measures taken have produced effects in the form of short-term stabilization: after the mid-August peaks, wholesale gasoline prices at the Saint Petersburg International Commodity and Raw Materials Exchange rolled back by 7–8%. However, during the second week of September, price pressure increased again. Fuel exchange quotes resumed their growth: the price of diesel exceeded 66,000 rubles per ton (a maximum since spring 2024), while 92-Octane gasoline in the European part of Russia rose to approximately 72,000 rubles per ton. Market participants attribute this to temporary factors – drone attacks on refineries, scheduled repairs at several plants, and consistently high demand. At retail, gasoline prices have surged over 7% since the beginning of the year, which is one and a half times higher than the overall inflation rate (~4%).
The government assures that the situation is under control: filling stations are stocked with fuel, and new supplies from refineries continue to arrive. The Bank of Russia also expects that as seasonal agricultural work and holidays conclude, along with the commissioning of refineries post-maintenance, the growth in fuel prices will slow down. The resumption of petroleum product exports will only be possible after the domestic market is fully saturated and a sustainable reduction in exchange prices occurs. Therefore, the set of implemented measures aims to gradually normalize the situation: authorities are prepared to extend restrictions and mobilize additional resources to keep gasoline and diesel prices for end consumers within acceptable limits.
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